With Trump out, eight Republicans face off in the party’s first presidential debate

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5 THINGS TO WATCH IN THE GOP DEBATE

By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent


Milwaukee – the Brew City, the Fresh Coast, home of the Fonz (and the bronze Fonz ([link removed]) ) and the planned site of the 2024 Republican Convention ([link removed]) – is about to host the season opener for the entire 2024 election cycle. On Wednesday, eight Republicans face off in the party’s first presidential debate.

On stage, we expect:
* Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota
* Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey
* Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida
* Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and former U.N. ambassador
* Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas
* Mike Pence, former vice president
* Vivek Ramaswamy, businessman and first-time candidate
* Tim Scott, U.S. senator from South Carolina

You can find our short profiles ([link removed]) of some of these rivals on YouTube.

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Looming over the debate, but not standing on stage, will be former President Donald Trump. The Florida resident said he will not participate ([link removed]) in this or other Republican National Committee debates.

So what to watch?

1. The Trump vs. DeSantis proxy war: DeSantis vs. Ramaswamy

With Trump out of the room, DeSantis will be the polling leader at the debate. (He trails the former president by an astounding 37 points inFive Thirty Eight’s polling average ([link removed]) .)

Immediately behind DeSantis, and draining his support, is Ramaswamy. The businessman is an intentional echo of Trump, casting himself as a younger, lower-drama alternative. Result: The two camps have been circling each other like two crows eyeing the same mound of food when the bear is away.

(Handy fact: DeSantis and Ramaswamy are the two youngest candidates on stage — DeSantis is 44 years old and Ramaswamy is 38 — and both are fathers of school-aged kids.)

A strategy memo ([link removed]) written by a consulting firm connected with DeSantis mentioned Ramaswamy’s Hindu faith and Indian American heritage as the basis for an argument over his tax policy. Another memo ([link removed]) in DeSantis land recommended the governor “take a sledge hammer” to Ramaswamy.

Meanwhile, supporters of Trump and Ramaswamy alike have pounced on recent remarks by DeSantis ([link removed]) . In an interview, the Florida governor was critical of what he called a pro-Trump “strand” in the Republican party, saying there would be a problem if Republicans operate as “listless vessels” that are supposed to follow whatever Trump writes on social media. A DeSantis spokesman said the candidate meant elected officials, not voters.

But many in MAGA world have decried the comments as akin to Hillary Clinton’s infamous “basket of deplorables” comment ([link removed]) .

The Trump vs. DeSantis battle is the party’s current title fight. At the debate, watch how that translates into a different – but also proxy – battle between DeSantis and Ramaswamy.

2. Tackling or tiptoeing around Trump?

In general, most of the Republican candidates on stage have shown a passionate determination to praise Trump or at least avoid direct criticism of him.

There are exceptions. Former Govs. Hutchinson and Christie have bluntly criticized Trump as dangerous and a mistake for the country. Pence praises his former boss but also regularly cites his break with Trump over the Jan. 6 attack and Trump’s push to overturn the election.

The moderators from FOX News have made it clear they will ask questions about Trump ([link removed]) , his actions and beliefs.

Watch to see if the rest of the candidates, in trying to prove loyalty to Trump, gang up on Christie and Hutchinson.

Or, if they avoid that confrontation in the name of not giving more airtime to Trump criticism.

Or, if they all attempt a kind of pivot, saying, “we need someone new.”

3. What is an “elite”?

Republicans, including Trump and DeSantis, ([link removed]) have long railed against what they see as the “elites. ([link removed]) ”

Sometimes that is “ivory tower” elites. Sometimes “Ivy League” elites.

But both DeSantis and Ramaswamy have Ivy League pedigrees as strong as New England cobblestone. DeSantis attended Yale for undergrad and Harvard Law School. Ramaswamy is a mirror image, attending Harvard undergrad and Yale Law School.

This leaves open an attack possibility for the six candidates trying to displace both men in the second-place hunt. But it is not just a debate tactic. It is a central theme behind current Republican messaging.
Watch how much the idea of elitism comes up, who raises it and how.

(And, while we are on the topic of education, watch who, Ivy League or not, came prepared. Who did their homework?)

4. A Nikki Haley (or Tim Scott) (or someone else) moment

Two candidates we will be watching closely, especially after spending time in Iowa, are South Carolinians Haley (former governor) and Scott (current senator).

Haley has put in the hours in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and her dedicated campaigning has paid off on the stump. She is confident, warm and has something to say. But she is not yet breaking out of the pack and has not faced a debate stage like this.

We are watching Haley in particular because she more than anyone else in the middle tier of the race so far has broken directly with Trump on a few issues, including how they see U.S. support for Ukraine. We are wondering if she will go further on offense in the debate, either with criticism of the others or by stressing where she differs.

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., offers the inverse dynamic. He has gone out of his way not to criticize other candidates, but to stay relentlessly on message about his beliefs and optimism. Watch to see if he lays out more specifics about his ideology, and if his “happy warrior” approach steals the show amid a cacophony of candidates interrupting one another.

5. Is this for 2024 or 2028?

Lastly, is this even about 2024 anymore? Or is this a kind of “I put my bag down there” way of holding a place in line for 2028?

The Constitution limits presidents to being elected twice.

Thus, whether Trump wins or loses, it seems likely that Republicans will need another nominee in just four short years.

Candidates on stage could be thinking about that longer horizon.

This is where the language around Trump could be telling. If candidates are particularly ambiguous, warmly ambiguous, about Trump, it could be a sign that they are at least keeping options open for the next big shot for the White House.
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THE POLITICAL SEASON AHEAD
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

With the first 2024 Republican presidential debate upon us, let’s lay out the calendar — as we know it — for the political season ahead.

Trump remains the front-runner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, but also faces multiple legal battles with their own timelines.

Here’s a brief look at what’s on the horizon, through Election Day 2024.

Trump trials and the political schedule, so far

Aug. 23: First GOP debate ([link removed]) in Wisconsin.
* Kicks off at 9 PM ET. Here’s how to watch. ([link removed])
* Our own Lisa Desjardins and Matt Loffman will be at the debate. You can follow them on Twitter @lisadnews and @mattloff.
* NOTE: The Democratic Party does not plan to hold primary debates in 2024. This is expected. Incumbent presidents don’t typically participate in primary debates when they’re seeking a second term.

Sept. 27: Second GOP debate ([link removed]) . This time, In California. Qualifications for this debate are stricter. Candidates must:
* Hit at least 3 percent in two national polls,
* Or hit 3 percent in one national poll and 3 percent in two polls conducted in separate early voting states. This includes Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Oct. 2: New York state civil case against Trump ([link removed]) and family members is scheduled to begin. This case, led by state Attorney General Letitia James, alleges Trump and his family perpetrated widespread real estate and business fraud.

Jan. 1, 2024: The start of the 2024 election year. 309 days until Election Day.

Early January - Special Counsel Jack Smith has requested a trial date in early January ([link removed]) for the federal election interference case against Trump, including charges stemming from the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. The court date has not yet been set and Trump’s lawyers are seeking to delay the case to early 2026 ([link removed]) , well after the election is over.

Jan. 15, 2024: Iowa Republican caucuses ([link removed]) . The first voting in the GOP primary.
* On the same day, another civil case against Trump advances. This day is set to be the first ([link removed]) in a defamation lawsuit against the former president from writer E. Jean Carroll.
* Caroll won $5 million in a previous lawsuit that found Trump liable for sexually abusing and defaming her. This second case is related to comments he made after losing the first one.

March 4, 2024: This is the proposed trial date ([link removed]) for the Georgia election interference case against Trump and 18 others.

March 5, 2024: Super Tuesday ([link removed]) .
* Circle this date in red on a calendar. It’s the largest number of delegates up for grabs on a single day in the primary contest to decide the next GOP presidential nominee.

March 25, 2024: New York state accounting fraud/hush money case against Trump is scheduled to begin in Manhattan.

May 2024: Nomination clinched? In this month in recent election years, political parties usually have a clear frontrunner if not a candidate who has clinched the presidential nomination.

May 20, 2024: Federal classified documents case. Fort Pierce, Florida scheduled to begin.

July 15-28, 2024: The Republican National Convention ([link removed]) takes place in Milwaukee.

Aug. 19-22, 2024: The Democratic National Convention takes place in Chicago.

🇺🇸 Nov. 5, 2024: Presidential election.

Nov. 9, 2024: The weekend after the election. Hopefully we all get some sleep.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Cybele Mayes-Osterman, @CybeleMO ([link removed])
Associate Editorial Producer

On Wednesday night, all eyes will turn towards Milwaukee, the site of the first GOP presidential primary debate ([link removed]) of the 2024 election cycle. The city will also host the Republican National Convention in July 2024 ([link removed]) , when the party will choose its nominee.

Milwaukee's historic popularity as a debate location for both parties is tied to its importance in the electoral map. In 2016, Trump eked out a victory over Clinton in the state by just 0.77% ([link removed]) , t.

Our question: How many of the past six presidential elections have been decided by less than a percentage point in Wisconsin?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: “RICO” shares a name with the main character of an American mob movie. What is the film?

The answer: “Little Caesar.” ([link removed]) The 1931 gangster film features a character named “Rico” with actor Edward G. Robinson in the star-making role.

Congratulations to our winners: Luc Ta and Michael Zullo!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.

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