Daily News Brief

August 21, 2023

Top of the Agenda

Bernardo Arévalo de León won 58 percent of the vote (AP) in yesterday’s presidential runoff to former First Lady Sandra Torres’ 37 percent. His victory is seen as a rebuke (NYT) to actors in the country’s political elite who had barred a series of other anti-establishment candidates from running earlier in the race. Guatemala was home to ambitious anti-corruption reforms (NYT) in the mid-2010s, but anti-graft reformers and independent media have been increasingly obstructed.

Arévalo even faced a lawsuit against his party’s eligibility to run, which was suspended in time for the election, but now looms over whether he can take office. He said on Sunday night that he aims to stop “political persecution” against state employees and activists focusing on anti-corruption, human rights, and environmental issues.

Analysis

“If Arévalo and his party [manages] to govern, against immense odds, they might just be able to turn Guatemala from a cautionary tale into a Latin American example of forward-looking change,” CFR expert Will Freeman writes for Time magazine.

“It was because of [hard organizing] work that Semilla and Arévalo were ready to capitalize on this truly unpredictable election. There's a clear lesson there for democratic oppositions in competitive authoritarian regimes in Latin America and elsewhere,” Harvard University’s Manuel Meléndez Sánchez posts.

Pacific Rim

At a Camp David summit on Friday, the three countries made a “commitment to consult” (WaPo) with one another on responses to security crises. U.S. President Joe Biden hailed the agreement as a “new era” of cooperation between them, while China said the Asia-Pacific region should not be a “wrestling ground for geopolitical competition.”

During this media briefing, CFR experts Sheila A. Smith and Scott A. Snyder previewed the trilateral summit. 

Thailand: The Pheu Thai party announced today that it is allying with two pro-military parties (AP) affiliated with the country’s outgoing prime minister as part of its efforts to form a government. Pheu Thai came second to the pro-democracy Move Forward party in Thailand’s May election, but the Move Forward candidate was repeatedly blocked by lawmakers and did not have enough backing to form a government.

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick looks at what’s next for Thailand’s democracy.

South and Central Asia

Around three hundred people were wounded in clashes (AP) with police on Sunday as opposition activists protested, calling for credible conditions for an upcoming election. Despite accusations of election rigging and protesters’ calls for her resignation, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina hopes to secure a fourth consecutive term.

India: The central bank is encouraging local banks to ask their clients to conduct trade between India and the United Arab Emirates in the countries’ local currencies, Reuters reports. This shift is part of broader efforts to reduce U.S. dollar transactions and bolster the rupee’s global reach.

Middle East and North Africa

Saudi border guards have killed “at least hundreds” of Ethiopian migrants and asylum seekers crossing from Yemen between March 2022 and June 2023, Human Rights Watch (HRW) found in a new report. An unnamed Saudi official told the Associated Press the report was “unfounded,” but did not provide evidence to disprove it.

Egypt: President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi pardoned (Reuters) several prisoners, including Ahmed Douma, an activist and blogger who had been serving a fifteen-year jail sentence for his role in protests following the 2011 Egyptian revolution. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

After self-declared junta leader Abdourahmane Tchiani pledged to transition back to democracy within three years on Saturday night, the peace and security envoy for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) said the bloc would not accept (The Guardian) the plan. An ECOWAS delegation met over the weekend with both Tchiani and deposed President Mohamed Bazoum, but no truce was reached.

South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa voiced support for expansion (Bloomberg) of the BRICS group that also includes Brazil, Russia, India, and China ahead of an annual summit that begins tomorrow in Johannesburg. More than twenty countries have applied to join, but the prospect of expansion has divided the group.

Europe

The country’s first lunar mission in decades ended in failure (AP), but it was not immediately clear what caused the crash. It did not carry human passengers.

Ukraine: The government is nearing a deal with global insurers to cover grain exports from its Black Sea ports, the Financial Times reported. The deal seeks to make grain shipping through the waterway viable after Russia’s withdrawal from a grain deal last month.

This In Brief by CFR’s Kali Robinson explains which countries could suffer the most following Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal.

Americas

Luisa González, the protégé of former leftist President Rafael Correa, and Daniel Noboa Azin, a businessman and son of a five-time presidential candidate, will advance (El País) to the country’s presidential runoff on October 15. González won 33 percent of the vote in the first round, while Noboa won 24 percent.

United States

Much of the state remains under flood watch today (AP) after the first tropical storm in eighty-four years hit California. It is the latest major climate-related disaster to impact the North American continent.

Council on Foreign Relations

58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065

1777 F Street, NW — Washington, DC 20006

Shop the CFR Store

Forward This Email

Manage Your Email Preferences