If he’s convicted, they say, it’ll be ‘up to the people’ to decide if he should be president. The polling on that topic is fraught. Email not displaying correctly?
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** OPINION
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** Trump’s rivals all seem to give the same answer when asked about his charges
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Donald Trump, shown here last month in Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

A big question facing many Republicans — voters and powerful people within the party — is what happens if Donald Trump is convicted of one or some of the crimes he has been charged with in recent months? More specifically, will he still have the support of the party in his bid to return to the White House?

Trump’s former running mate and vice president, Mike Pence — the man Trump blames for not helping him overturn the 2020 election — said on ABC’s “This Week” that even if Trump is convicted of a crime, it will be up to the American people to decide.

On Sunday, Pence told “This Week” moderator Jonathan Karl, “I think that needs to be left to the American people. Look, let’s let the former president have his day in court. Let’s maintain a presumption of innocence in — in this matter and in the other matter that, you know, unfolded this week here in Georgia. But, I’ve said many times, Jon, I would have preferred that these matters be left to the judgment of the American people. I mean no one’s above the law, but — but with regard to the president’s future, I — my hope is when we get to that debate stage, and I’m — I’m still kind of hoping maybe he’ll come, is that we can really have a debate about the challenges facing the American people, the issues the American people are facing in the wake of the failed policies of the Biden administration.”

That’s a rather typical response from many Republicans: stop short of fully condemning the former president’s actions, talk about how he’s innocent until proven guilty, say something about the will of the American people and then pivot to talking points about President Joe Biden.

During an appearance on Sunday’s “Meet the Press,” Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, who is also running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, followed the same pattern, ducking moderator Chuck Todd’s valiant attempts to get him to talk about whether or not he believed Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election.

Burgum said, “I think there's an entire cable news industry, there's an entire social media industry built around trying to answer that question.”

Todd pushed him hard, asking, “You know, it's been interesting to me in a couple of interviews plus than the one we've just had now, you’ve been quite comfortable bringing up Hunter Biden on Joe Biden. But it’s remarkable to me how uncomfortable you — and you’re not alone here — you are bringing up the legal problems and the charges against Donald Trump. And I get it. It’s fear of alienating a majority of where the party is. But it’s sort of odd. Wouldn't somebody being charged with 91 criminal counts be somebody that you'd want to see drop out of the race? I mean, should they even be running for office?”

Burgum followed what feels like a playbook, saying, “Well, again, Chuck, this is — the voters get to decide who runs for office in America. And whether it's a local election or whether it's, you know, state or federal, the voters are the ones that ultimately get to decide. And again, if we're going to live in a democracy, at some point we’ve got to trust the voters.”

Meanwhile, polls seem to indicate that the more Trump gets in trouble with the law (well, at least indicted), the greater his popularity becomes. As of now, most polls show him dominating the Republican field. A new poll ([link removed]) out just this morning — the first 2024 NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer — shows Trump with a more than a 20-point lead over his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

But in his latest piece for The Atlantic, Russell Berman writes, “What the Polls May Be Getting Wrong About Trump.” ([link removed])

Berman writes, “A new, broader survey of Republican voters suggests that the indictments have, in fact, dented Trump’s advantage in the primary. The study ([link removed]) was designed by a group of university researchers who argue that pollsters have been asking the wrong questions to assess how the indictments have affected Republican voters.”

The study theorized that the polls were asking flawed questions.

Berman writes, “To test their theory, they commissioned a SurveyMonkey poll of more than 5,000 Americans in which half were asked questions in this counterfactual format: ‘Suppose you did not know about the indictment. How would you have answered the following question: How likely are you to vote for Donald Trump?’ They asked the other half questions that pollsters more commonly use.”

So what happened?

Berman writes, “Like other surveys, the poll based on the traditional format found that the indictments increased Trump’s support among Republican primary voters. But the poll based on the counterfactual framing found that the indictments slightly hurt his standing in the party, reducing by 1.6 percent the likelihood that Republicans would vote for him.”

Only 1.6%? That doesn’t seem like much. But the point seems to be that the indictments haven’t hurt Trump, but they haven’t necessarily given him a boost either.

Then again, the bottom line: Trump remains the overwhelming favorite to be the Republican nominee.

Matt Graham, one of the authors of the survey and an assistant professor at Temple University, told Berman, “I don’t think that survey researchers should be sending the public profoundly pessimistic messages about how their fellow citizens think and reason when those aren’t actually true. There’s plenty to be pessimistic about in our politics, but we don’t need to pile on by acting like people think that indictments are good.”

However, the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found that 65% of likely Republican caucus goers don’t think Trump has committed serious crimes, compared to 26% who believe he has committed serious crimes. An additional 9% say they don’t know.

One more interesting nugget: A majority of Republican caucus goers in Iowa — 52% — say their minds aren’t made up, and that they could be persuaded to support another candidate.

A NOTE FROM POYNTER
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** About those polls and about that debate …
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The first Republican presidential debate is scheduled for Wednesday in Milwaukee on Fox News. Don’t expect Trump to be there. He announced Sunday on his Truth Social that he will not attend that debate … or any others.

Up until Sunday, Trump hadn’t officially committed one way or the other. But he kept hinting he would not, saying often that it made no sense for someone with such a big lead in the polls to debate anyone. Still, he said things like “I haven’t decided,” all while Fox News personalities encouraged him on the air to attend. (Fox News leadership tried to convince him in private, too.)

On Sunday, he made it clear that he would not be debating. He wrote on his social media site ([link removed]) : “New CBS POLL, just out, has me leading the field by ‘legendary’ numbers. TRUMP 62%, 46 Points above DeSanctimonious (who is crashing like an ailing bird!), Ramaswamy 7%, Pence 5%, Scott 3%, Haley 2%, Sloppy Chris Christie 2%, ‘Aida’ Hutchinson 1%. The public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had, with Energy Independence, Strong Borders & Military, Biggest EVER Tax & Regulation Cuts, No Inflation, Strongest Economy in History, & much more. I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!”

This also allows him to avoid directly answering questions about any of the charges he is facing.

Speaking of which, Trump reportedly had planned to hold a press conference today ahead of surrendering for his latest indictment in Georgia later this week. But it’s believed advisers (wisely) talked him out of it to keep him from saying anything that might get him in more legal trouble. He has taped an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, and that interview is expected to air this week — although the exact time and platform on which it will air is unknown. There have been reports, including one from The Washington Post ([link removed]) , that the interview will air sometime Wednesday night, and probably online.

Appearing on Sunday’s “Inside with Jen Psaki” on MSNBC, debate prep specialist Karen Dunn said ([link removed]) , “The idea that he’s not going to be attending this debate because he has to report to jail almost speaks for itself. The jokes in this debate could write themselves if the candidates are willing to go on the attack.”

Yeah, don’t count on that, although it will be interesting to see how aggressive Fox News anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, who are moderating, will be about Trump’s legal woes.


** That’s debatable
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Former Vice President Mike Pence, earlier this month in Indiana. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings, File)

It’s still not clear how many will be participating in Wednesday’s debate. Eight have qualified, but that includes Trump, who says he won’t be there. To qualify, candidates must reach certain thresholds in donors and polling, as well as sign a pledge to support the ultimate nominee, no matter who it is.

The other seven locked in are former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Sunday he has qualified, and it appears that he has met the various requirements. Two more candidates — Mayor Francis X. Suarez of Miami and the businessman Perry Johnson — say they have qualified, but there’s no confirmation yet from the Republican National Committee.

The deadline to meet the requirements is 48 hours before the debate. That means today.


** Who’s in jeopardy?
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With no Trump, who might be the debate’s most interesting person? Who needs to make some noise?

Appearing on Sunday’s “State of the Union” on CNN, former Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan told guest anchor Kasie Hunt, “I think it's a make-or-break moment for Ron DeSantis, who's been in freefall and dropped nearly 20 points. It's been going on for quite some time. And I think he's really got to turn it around and distinguish himself.”

Hogan predicted that DeSantis could be a target of the other candidates, especially Chris Christie.

CNN senior political commentator David Axelrod was also on “State of the Union” and said, “I think DeSantis is the guy who is in most jeopardy here. He started off — his whole candidacy was premised on, he was the alternative to Trump. And getting back to the vessel reference, he's been doing nothing but sinking since he became a candidate. And now he's in jeopardy of losing that distinction as being Trump's principal challenger.”


** Wild weather continues
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Long Beach lifeguards fill up sandbags for residents ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm Hilary. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

Significant weather stories continue to dominate the news. On the heels of the devastating wildfires in Hawaii, there was another unusual weather event on Sunday as Tropical Storm Hilary slammed into Southern California. It’s believed to be the first such storm to come ashore in California since 1939.

While that was happening, a magnitude 5.1 earthquake struck Ojai, between Santa Barbara and Ventura. Weather experts are saying the earthquake had nothing to do with the tropical storm.

There was believed to be no significant damage from the earthquake, but we will wait and see what happens with the tropical storm. It is expected to cause major flooding and possible landslides in Mexico and Southern California. And that’s not all.

The Associated Press’ Jordi Lebrija and Damian Dovarganes wrote ([link removed]) , “Hilary could wallop other Western states with once-in-a-century rains, with a good chance of it becoming the wettest known tropical cyclone to douse Nevada, Oregon and Idaho. Hilary was expected to remain a tropical storm into central Nevada early Monday before dissipating.”

As far as the 1939 storm, The New York Times’ Livia Albeck-Ripka recounts ([link removed]) that the storm killed nearly 100 people. Reports from the time were that some were killed at sea, while others died in flooding.


** Media tidbits
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* In a strong guest essay for The New York Times, Gregory P. Magarian, a professor at the Washington University School of Law in St. Louis, writes about the recent raid by police of a small newspaper in Kansas in “The Revealing Case of a Kansas Judge and a Search Warrant.” ([link removed]) Magarian takes aim at the Supreme Court, writing how the press is under assault and “the problem starts at the top.” Magarian goes on to write, “The court … has long shown ambivalence about protecting journalists, and it has not decided any significant press freedom case in more than 20 years. Part of that chasm owes to the internet, which has raised real (though surmountable) challenges for figuring out who should count as ‘the press.’ But much of it owes to the justices’ disdaining of the social value of the press while fixating instead on the First Amendment rights of businesses, big electoral spenders and anti-abortion extremists.”
* Solid investigation in The Atlantic from Alex Reisner: “Revealed: The Authors Whose Pirated Books are Powering Generative AI.” ([link removed])
* The Los Angeles Times’ Malia Mendez with “In searing ‘indictment’ of Hollywood diversity, USC film study shows 16 years of stasis.” ([link removed])
* Mediaite’s Phillip Nieto with “Elon Musk Battles James Woods in Heated X Spat Over Block Button That Ends With Musk — Hitting the Block Button.” ([link removed])


** Hot type
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* For The New York Times, David Segal (with photographs and video by Ciril Jazbec) with “The Beekeepers Who Don’t Want You to Buy More Bees.” ([link removed])
* Spain defeated England on Sunday to win the Women’s World Cup. Even if you didn’t really follow the tournament, this is an interesting piece from The Ringer’s Jessy Parker Humphreys: “Spain Triumphed Over England in the Women’s World Cup, but at What Cost?” ([link removed])
* And the always good Rory Smith of The New York Times with “For Spain, a World Cup Title Built on Talent, Not Harmony.” ([link removed])


** More resources for journalists
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* Power of Diverse Voices: Writing Workshop for Journalists of Color ([link removed]) (Nov. 15-18) (Seminar) — Apply by Sept. 15 ([link removed]) .

Have feedback or a tip? Email Poynter senior media writer Tom Jones at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) .
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