[Far from resolving conflicts, Saudi-Israel normalization will
serve as a pillar of a repressive architecture that brings no justice
for Palestinians or Arab peoples. ]
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WHY SAUDI-ISRAEL ‘PEACE’ WILL CEMENT A VIOLENT FUTURE  
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Dana El Kurd
August 8, 2023
972 Magazine
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_ Far from resolving conflicts, Saudi-Israel normalization will serve
as a pillar of a repressive architecture that brings no justice for
Palestinians or Arab peoples. _

Defense Secretary James N. Mattis meets with Saudi Arabia’s Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz at the Pentagon in Washington
D.C., Mar. 22, 2018. , Kathryn E. Holm / U.S. Secretary of Defense /
CC BY 2.0

 

There has been a great deal of excitement in American and Israeli
media as of late, with rumors that a normalization agreement between
Israel and Saudi Arabia is imminent. High-profile visits
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U.S. officials with the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad Bin Salman, have
been reported on breathlessly, as pundits write endless op-eds
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how normalization with one of the most powerful Arab countries would
be transformative for the region, for the two-state solution, and for
“peace.”

Analysts have also speculated
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the benefits of such a diplomatic achievement for President Joe Biden,
both in his foreign policy objectives and in his ongoing re-election
campaign. The importance of the Abraham Accords
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establishment — despite being facilitated by the Trump
administration — was on full display in June
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House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to create a special
envoy position tasked with expanding the accords, with Saudi Arabia at
the forefront of their mission. 

Much of this hoopla, however, is likely over exaggerated. As one
analyst described, a good deal of these maneuvers, and much of the
reporting on them, can be characterized as “strategic speculation
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they are intended to inflate the possible expansion of the Abraham
Accords and similar initiatives, so as to pressure various actors to
continue pursuing the process. In other words, they are more about
optics than they are about reality — a reality where signatory
governments, and their citizens, are actually 
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of Israel’s increasingly far-right policies.

Nevertheless, whatever the outcome, the concerted effort at expanding
regional normalization tells us a great deal about how the Americans,
Israelis, and their Arab allies envision the foreseeable future, both
for Palestinians and the broader Arab world. 

HOW TO UNDERSTAND NORMALIZATION

In the diplomatic realm, normalization can be defined as the increase
of any political, cultural, trade, and military ties, overt or covert.
Official peace agreements are one manifestation of these ties, and
they certainly increase the scope and breadth of relations. However,
they are not the norm across the Middle East, and the Gulf in
particular. Instead, most Arab governments, including Saudi Arabia,
have had varying degrees of under-the-table normalization
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particularly when it comes to Israel.

President Joe Biden stands beside leaders of the GCC, Egypt, Iraq, and
Jordan at the Jeddah Security and Development Summit, Saudi Arabia,
July 17, 2022. (The White House)

In recent years, unofficial Saudi-Israeli ties have increased,
with high-profile visits
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Saudi officials to Jerusalem, the steady increase of Israeli visits
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the kingdom, and leaks to the media about Riyadh’s openness to
pursue greater connections with America’s other main ally in the
region.

When the UAE and Bahrain, and later Morocco and Sudan, became
signatories to the Abraham Accords in 2020 and after, they claimed
that the objective of these steps was to pursue “peace.”
Similarly, when the Saudi regime was courting the Trump administration
by showing support for Jared Kushner’s grand plans for “solving”
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, talk of increased normalization went
hand in hand with half-baked ideas about a final Palestinian-Israeli
agreement. For instance, Saudi officials infamously signaled
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this time that Riyadh would support the idea of Abu Dis — an
economically depressed suburb of occupied East Jerusalem — serving
as the Palestinian state’s new capital.

But in reality, this talk of peace is merely a fig leaf to
normalization’s actual objective and function. These agreements do
not resolve underlying causes of conflict, but rather cement
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increasingly violent status quo. 

While they do formalize bilateral connections between Israel and Arab
states, thereby increasing coordination and decreasing likelihood of
conflict between them, these “peace” deals can only be
characterized as illiberal, functioning as a form of authoritarian
conflict management. This is a term from political science literature
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an approach that “eschew(s) genuine negotiations among parties to
the conflict, reject(s) international mediation and constraints on the
use of force, disregard(s) calls to address underlying structural
causes of conflict, and instead relies on instruments of state
coercion and hierarchical structures of power.”

If viewed from this perspective, then the objectives of all parties
— American, Israeli, and Saudi — become more clear. The United
States is not pursuing normalization because it is a foreign policy
win for Biden; indeed, the degree to which foreign policy matters to
American voters has long been a question up for debate
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Rather, the Biden administration wants to buy time for Israel — even
as public opinion turns against it
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maintain the status quo of a moribund peace process that has only
increased the degree to which Palestinians are repressed and
displaced.

U.S. President Joe Biden visits the Israeli President’s Residence in
Jerusalem, July 14, 2022. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Even as reputable scholars, human rights organizations, and activists
point out that the current peace process and objective of a two-state
solution are no longer viable, American officials continue to pursue
this impossible outcome. As a recent interview
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New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman put plainly: the Americans
have to keep “pretending” that a two-state solution is possible or
“insure that it never came back.” So for the U.S. government, a
normalization deal which pays lip service to the Palestinian cause
would help keep this charade going, despite the authoritarian
conditions under which Palestinians live.

Similarly, the Israelis want to deepen their alliances with regional
autocrats to further solidify a status quo that sees no Palestinian
state, let alone sovereignty of any kind. Regional alliances would
ensure that Israel never has to address the underlying cause of
conflict: the Nakba and ongoing Palestinian dispossession. Indeed, as
Israel becomes more integrated in the region despite its escalating
crimes, there is clearly no incentive for it to change its course. 

Instead, by pursuing normalization, Israelis will acquire greater
impunity, further partnerships to offset security threats (especially
from Iran), as well as a way to undermine mass public support for
Palestinians in the region as seen in the past
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Moreover, given the defense industry’s centrality to the Israeli
economy, finding new markets
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repressive weapons and surveillance technologies is always an added
bonus.

WHAT DO THE SAUDIS GET OUT OF THIS?

The Saudi government has increasingly utilized security technologies
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from Israeli and other sources — and has become more proactive in
expanding its repressive capacity. This is an open secret: as my own
research shows, in the wake of the Abraham Accords, we have seen
a ratcheting up of repression
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the signatory countries  and even their close allies. For
example, after the UAE and Bahrain signed agreements with
Israel, Saudi media
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quick to make clear that its citizens should not criticize the
“sovereign” decisions of other countries that normalize. A number
of Saudi elites tied to the state establishment publicly declared
their support for the UAE’s peace agreement with Israel, and similar
slogans were used by Emirati social media influencers.

UAE Ambassador to Israel Mohamed Al Khaja and Israeli President Isaac
Herzog at the opening ceremony of the United Arab Emirates embassy in
Tel Aviv, July 14, 2021. (Miriam Alster/Flash90)

It is clear that for Saudi Arabia, like other Arab regimes,
normalization with Israel presents an opportunity to advance greater
social control. This becomes more evident when we consider
the central role
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activism plays in regional dissent, as well as the overwhelming level
of support for the Palestinian cause among Arab populations.

Historically, Palestine has been one of the few topics around which
Saudi citizens are allowed to mobilize. Indeed, Saudis have a history
of protest [[link removed]] in support of the Palestinian
cause, beginning as early as the 1920s. This continued throughout the
1930s and ‘40s in support of the Arab revolt in Palestine and in
opposition to the partition of the country. The Palestinian cause also
spurred the creation of Saudi “popular action committees,” in
order to gather financial support from within the kingdom. The current
king, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, personally oversaw the fundraising
committee for Palestine within the Saudi government during his time as
emir.

Evidence of pro-Palestinian sentiment among Saudi citizens remains
present to this day, with Saudis often breaking taboos for the sake of
the Palestinian cause. According to an interview with a Saudi
activist, after the 2011 Arab Spring, there was a proliferation of
pan-Gulf organizations with a pro-Palestine outlook, such as Multaqa
al-Tawaasul (“Communication Forum”) and Multaqa al-Nahda
al-Shababi (“Youth Renaissance Forum”), in which Saudis actively
participated. 

In recent years, and in response to the Abraham Accords, Saudi
activists have also become involved in the group “Gulf Coalition
Against Normalization.” This involvement has been on an individual
basis, with most of those participating living outside of Saudi
Arabia. Given restrictions on political organizing, no civil society
group from within the country has been able to take part in this
initiative. 

Polling confirms that pro-Palestinian sentiment is widespread.
Results of the latest Arab Opinion Index
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show how, when asked whether they agreed with the sentiment that
“the Palestinian cause is a cause for all Arabs, and not just
Palestinians alone,” only 12 percent of Saudi respondents disagreed.
Similarly, when asked about whether they supported their government
officially recognizing the state of Israel, only 5 percent of Saudis
agreed, with a huge non-response rate of 57 percent — implying fear
of answering freely. Pro-Palestinian sentiment in Saudi Arabia has
been consistent since the beginning of polling efforts in 2011, and
there is a high level of public disagreement with normalization.

Palestinians protest against an agreement to establish diplomatic ties
between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, in the West Bank city of
Ramallah, September 15, 2020. (Flash90)

Clamping down on all this potential political opposition is thus a
benefit of pursuing normalization, especially when increased ties
means greater access to Israeli repressive technologies that can help
facilitate this goal.

Furthermore, the Saudi regime benefits from integrating itself into
U.S. foreign policy, which has long been predicated on the idea of
authoritarian conflict management in the Arab world. By agreeing to a
deal with Israel, the key American ally in the region, the Saudis can
leverage their position more effectively in the future, and attain
American concessions. All the Saudi government has to do is claim that
they want to stop the annexation of the West Bank (a de facto reality
for decades) in order to reap the benefits to their regime’s
longevity and centrality in the region. 

INJUSTICE HAS CONSEQUENCES 

To be clear, the Saudis have claimed that for official normalization
with Israel to move forward, they must receive a NATO-like defense
pact, nuclear proliferation technologies, and an official halt to West
Bank annexation. It is unlikely that the Biden administration can meet
all these demands, but will likely settle for deeper ties with
less-than-official normalization. Nevertheless, research
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shown that monarchical regimes utilize informal agreements more
regularly than official ones, gradually formalizing these arrangements
over time. Thus even small steps toward normalization can still mean
the intensification of authoritarian processes, adding fuel to an Arab
world already on fire.

As such, Saudi-Israeli normalization will hardly bolster peace or
stability. Instead, it will serve as another pillar of a regional
architecture that sees no priority for justice in the Arab world and
its peoples. Such an agreement will hasten the suffocation and ever
more likely
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displacement of Palestinians, who will have no recourse on the
international stage. Saudi activists and citizens will face the brunt
of the inevitable increase in repression that comes in the wake of
such “peace.” And given the way that regimes employ their
methods transnationally
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this repression will surely travel. As history show
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the arm of authoritarian regimes is long, and very rarely held to
account.

The U.S. establishment has therefore written off a sustainable future,
hoping instead to manage instability with autocratic allies and false
peace predicated on oppression. One wonders what it will take for
policymakers in Washington, a decade after the Arab Spring, to finally
learn the lesson that injustice has consequences. 

_DANA EL KURD is an assistant professor at the University of Richmond
and a senior nonresident fellow at the Arab Center Washington. She is
the author of "Polarized and Demobilized: Legacies of Authoritarianism
in Palestine."_

_Support journalism against apartheid. Become a member of +972
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* Saudi Arabia
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* Israel
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* Abraham Accords
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* United States
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* Joe Biden
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* Arab states
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* Arab Spring
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