Trump vs. the Field

The first Republican debate takes place on August 23rd. Thus far 7 candidates have qualified: Trump, DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Ramaswamy, Christie and Burgum. Mike Pence and Asa Hutchinson have the polling of 1% but not the donations. Francis Suarez is giving away $20 gift cards to donors; he and Will Hurd are currently on the outside looking in.

The RNC has already announced that the polling threshold for the next debate in September will be 3%. That will make it highly unlikely for anyone who misses the first debate to make the second one.

So realistically the Republican field looks increasingly set. Who could potentially emerge as the Trump spoiler?

The conventional wisdom was that Ron DeSantis was the best positioned to defeat Trump based on both polling and money raised; that has deflated a lot in the past month as voters have actually met DeSantis. “Trump without the jokes,” is how one person put it. Most of the money raised for DeSantis is actually with his PAC: $100 million vs. the $12 million his campaign has on hand.

There are major limits to what PACs can do; traditionally most of the money has gone to advertising and events. They’re not allowed to officially coordinate with campaigns. PACs also pay higher rates for advertising than candidates do. Basically, PAC money is not nearly as valuable as money on hand for a campaign.

When enthusiasm for a candidate wanes, PAC money is ordinarily not very helpful. In 2016, Jeb Bush’s PAC had tons of money that it burnt on ineffective advertising down the stretch as Jeb faded.

Can DeSantis turn around his campaign? I’m dubious. Their pivot hasn’t changed much, because it turns out the candidate is who he is. And people aren't buying.

So who is actually the most likely Trump spoiler? In my opinion, it’s Vivek Ramaswamy.

Vivek has genuine grassroots enthusiasm based on a distinct and - to Republicans - positive message. He’s smart and quick on his feet. He may be the best thinker and political athlete in the field. He has energy for days. When voters see him they like him. And his wealth allows him to self-fund as a bridge.

Some people underestimate Vivek’s chances based on his being unconventional and not an elected official. The thing is, Republicans don’t care about either of those things. Only 15% of Republicans have a high trust in media, for example. He’s reached 3rd or 4th in polling due primarily to his ability and message. Donors chase momentum. When he gets a wind at his back, which he will, Vivek is more likely to breakout and consolidate the field than any other candidate.

Tim Scott is right behind Vivek. He’s positive and appealing and has a very relatable set of experiences. There is a set of very wealthy donors that are willing to pump money into Tim Scott’s PAC to the moon. Scott will have every opportunity to make his case to both voters and donors. I’m just not as confident about Tim’s ceiling as his message and appeal seem to be the wrong fit for this cycle; voters don't want to feel good about the institutions, they want to blow them up.

Doug Burgum is actually a dark horse. He’s steady and a billionaire; think Mike Bloomberg from North Dakota. His campaign is competent - they got both the polling and the donors because of good execution. I think the August debate will be great for him as an introduction to millions of voters who right now don’t know he exists. He’s smart but not terribly exciting. I think he breaks 3% and makes the September debate.

Nikki Haley hasn’t made a mark and feels like a conventional politician among a base that doesn’t want one. Chris Christie is running a very lean, effective campaign – I donated to help him impede Trump – but is well-defined amid Republican voters with very high negatives.

And that’s the field.

When I ran for President last cycle, candidates would dropout and it felt sudden, but then sensible and inevitable at the same time. Beto. Kamala. Cory.

The Republican Field will start shrinking as soon as Labor Day.

Trump is the heavy favorite to be the Republican nominee, no matter his legal challenges. If you want to reduce his odds, you want to help Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott and/or Doug Burgum breakout among the Republican primary electorate in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Does that seem like a tall order? That just shows how rough this cycle looks to be.

The first debate is in two weeks. We’ll see if it moves the needle.

If these choices don’t thrill you check out Forward today. I will be in Los Angeles tailgating on Tuesday and San Diego on Saturday – would be great to see you. Also my new book ‘the Last Election’ arrives in September – check out the first review and pre-order today!