Q. Who are the recall attempts against? What are they being recalled for?
A. There are currently eight recall attempts underway against Michigan representatives. The recall attempts against Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City) and Rep. Sharon MacDonnell (D-Troy) are based on their anti-gun votes in support of Red Flag legislation. The five other Democrats are facing recall attempts based on their votes for amending Michigan's Hate Crimes law. The recall attempt against Rep. Cam Cavitt (R-Cheboygan) is coming from Republican activists in his northern Michigan district who feel he is too moderate.
Q. Who is behind the recalls? Is this an organized campaign?
A. All of the eight recall attempts have been initiated by local Republican party activists operating independently. They are happening at the same time due to the expiration of the six month statutory limit in July. Neither the Michigan Republican Party nor county Republican parties are organizing the recalls. To date, no advocacy organizations are known to be providing volunteers or funding although one recall organizer has stated he intends on working with the Michigan Conservation Union. Nonprofits like MCRGO are typically limited in providing support or opposition to political candidates.
Q. What are the odds of the recalls being successful?
A. The odds are long but certainly not impossible. Michigan Republicans recalled two Democratic senators in 1983, shifting control of the State Senate for the next four decades. But of the 76 recall attempts against legislators since 2007, only one was successful. That was a MEA organized campaign against former Republican Rep. Paul Scott in 2011. Due to Scott's recall, Michigan Republicans amended the state's recall laws in 2012 to make it much more difficult to recall legislators by reducing the window in which petition signatures can be collected. This past Tuesday, the State Board of Canvassers denied initial petitions against the seven Democrats due to lack of specificity in the petition language and only approved the petition language against the lone Republican. With a razor thin 56-54 majority, the recall of just one Democratic legislator could shift control of the Michigan House as two other Democratic legislators are running for election to local office this year.
Q. Is it true that recall attempts could actually benefit targeted legislators?
A. As soon as recall language is approved against a legislator, it starts a special, new fundraising period in which the targeted legislator is allowed to raise an unlimited sum of money. Gretchen Whitmer took advantage of that law last year to begin early and aggressive campaign spending that resulted in her double digit percentage win over Republican Tudor Dixon. A recall attempt can also assist the targeted legislator in terms of political organization, benefitting their 2024 re-election, provided they survive the recall attempt.
