[The two-day poll, which closed before Trumps Thursday
arraignment, asked respondents if they would vote for Trump for
president if he were "convicted of a felony crime by a jury." Among
Republicans, 45% said they would not; 35% said they would.]
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ABOUT HALF OF US REPUBLICANS COULD SPURN TRUMP IF HE IS CONVICTED,
REUTERS/IPSOS POLL SHOWS  
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Jason Lange
August 3, 2023
Reuters
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_ The two-day poll, which closed before Trump's Thursday arraignment,
asked respondents if they would vote for Trump for president if he
were "convicted of a felony crime by a jury." Among Republicans, 45%
said they would not; 35% said they would. _

Republican voters, Gage Skidmore (CC BY-SA 2.0)

 

WASHINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - About half of Republicans would not vote
for Donald Trump if he were convicted of a felony, a sign of the
severe risks his legal problems pose for his 2024 U.S. presidential
bid, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday.

The former president and current front-runner in the Republican
nomination contest for the November 2024 presidential election, Trump
pleaded not guilty in court
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Thursday to federal charges he led a conspiracy to overturn his loss
in the 2020 election.

He has separately been charged in two other criminal cases: one in a
New York state court which revolves around hush money payments to an
adult film actress; and another in federal court where he is charged
with retaining sensitive and classified national security documents
after he left office in January 2021.

The two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll, which closed before Trump's
late-afternoon court appearance, asked respondents if they would vote
for Trump for president next year if he were "convicted of a felony
crime by a jury." Among Republicans, 45% said they would not vote for
him, more than the 35% who said they would. The rest said they didn't
know.

Asked if they would vote for Trump if he were "currently serving time
in prison," 52% of Republicans said they would not, compared to 28%
who said they would.

Trump has proclaimed his innocence in all the cases
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him and accuses prosecutors of conducting a "witch hunt" that aims to
derail his campaign.

Two of the cases were brought by the U.S. Department of Justice, which
ultimately answers to Trump's nemesis, Democratic President Joe Biden,
but which has taken steps to insulate investigations from political
influence. The New York state case is led by a prosecutor who is an
elected Democrat.

The new poll showed that Republicans broadly sympathize with Trump's
accusations of political persecution. Seventy-five percent of
Republican respondents agreed with a statement that the charges
against Trump were "politically motivated." Twenty percent disagreed
and the rest said they didn't know.

About two-thirds of Republicans - 66% - described as "not believable"
the accusation in Trump's latest indictment that he solicited election
fraud. Twenty-nine percent said it was believable and the rest were
not sure.

Republican respondents also described themselves as more likely to
withhold their votes on Election Day from an unnamed convicted felon
than one named Donald Trump. When asked how a felony conviction would
affect their voting in an abstract sense, 71% of Republicans said they
would not vote for the convict, compared to 52% if it were Trump.

Trump has capitalized
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his indictments since the first charges were filed in April,
increasing his lead in the Republican nomination contest over his
closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

The new poll showed Trump's dominance only growing in that contest,
holding onto the 47% of Republican support he also had in a July poll,
while DeSantis' share slipped six percentage points to 13%.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted nationwide, gathering responses
online from 1,005 U.S. adults. It had a credibility interval, a
measure of precision, of about four percentage points.

Reporting by Jason Lange
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Malone and Grant McCool

* Donald Trump
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* Republican Party
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