Hey — I wanted to share this internal memo that I’ve sent to our Tom2020 staff and endorsers ahead of the Nevada caucuses. It’s a lot of information, but I’m really proud of everything we’ve built, so I hope you’ll read through.
This race is still wide open, and we’re seeing incredible energy from supporters in both Nevada and South Carolina! Below, you’ll find important updates from me about the state of the race overall, the DNC debate criteria, our formidable ground game in Nevada and South Carolina, our standout online organizing, the campaign’s plans for Super Tuesday, and of course, what you can do to help Tom as the campaign moves forward.
Take a look and let me know if you have thoughts or questions. I love hearing from all of you who are on this team and by Tom’s side.
|
TO: Tom2020 Team (Staff, Donors, Endorsers, and Supporters)
FROM: Heather Hargreaves, Campaign Manager, Tom2020
DATE: February 19, 2020
RE: STATE OF THE RACE
|
SUMMARY
Recent polling makes it clear that Tom is well-positioned in Nevada and South Carolina and, with the right message, will break out of the pack with significant momentum heading into Super Tuesday.
Tom’s absence from tonight’s debate stage is indicative only of the short-sighted qualification policies set by the DNC and not an indicator of how Tom is performing in either state. The DNC rules arbitrarily admit some polls while excluding others. Every public poll during this debate window, and our internal polls, have shown that Tom is clearly above the threshold to be in the debate and is in line to have a strong showing this weekend in Nevada.
Within the last month, Nevada and South Carolina have seen six public polls where Tom is at or above 10% in every one, and over 12% in three. While we would like to be in the debate, debates are not elections.
The facts are:
- This race is wide open as no candidate has come to define the race. These next two states are critical tests for all the candidates in the race.
- Tom is surging at the right time. As the race moves into more diverse states that better reflect the demographics of the party, Tom is polling better and his message is resonating.
- Tom is a true progressive Democrat. He is building the broad coalition needed to defeat Donald Trump in the fall. He is pulling together people from red districts, African Americans, Latinos, and non-traditional voters. These are the key voters who will provide the support needed to dump Donald Trump.
- He is uniquely electable. Tom is the only one with the experience necessary to beat Donald Trump on the economy. He has demonstrated the ability to build a diverse coalition. And as a Washington outsider, he will be able to break the stranglehold that the wealthy and corporations have over our nation’s agenda.
- We are seeing a steady surge of energy on the ground. At every stop in the last few weeks, we have seen more and more people come out, more media attention and more endorsements from community leaders who really matter and will help Tom get elected.
- Tom’s family is all in. They are criss-crossing the country and going to every corner of Nevada and South Carolina to talk about how Tom is the best candidate for the presidency.
- Our ground game is solid. We have one of the strongest organizing teams in Nevada and South Carolina. Unlike other campaigns, Tom believes that if you want to develop support in a community, then you need to hire from that community and then listen when they talk. Tom’s team is knocking on doors, making phone calls and developing the connections necessary to drive turnout and win the election.
- We have standout organizing online. We aren’t building an online ATM like other candidates. We are focused on building meaningful connections that encourages people to share our message to their networks. We have had millions of engagements and continue to refine our approach through rigorous testing.
- The Super Tuesday strategy is beginning to see real results. Our hybrid model merging field and political outreach is garnering endorsements and earned media that is getting Tom’s message out to the voters just as he will have momentum coming out of the early states.
STATE OF THE RACE
Regardless of the turnout model, Tom earns well over the 12% support threshold put forth by the DNC to make the Nevada debate. Let me be clear; if it were up to the people of Nevada and South Carolina, Tom Steyer would be on the debate stage tonight. Unfortunately, the DNC has rules for this debate that do not allow for any early state polling except one poll in Nevada to count towards the debate qualifying criteria.
Despite the DNC rules, we know that Tom is doing well in Nevada and South Carolina. In the last month there have been six public polls in those states. Tom has been at or above 10% in every one and over 12% in three of them. And Tom’s current polling average on Real Clear Politics is 10.5% in Nevada and 16% in South Carolina, putting him in the top tier of candidates in both states.
One week before the DNC started its polling window for qualification to the Nevada debate, our campaign met the polling criteria in two Fox News polls that showed his campaign at 15% in South Carolina and 12% in Nevada. More recent polls conducted by The Post and Courier and East Carolina University confirmed Tom’s momentum, showing him as a leading candidate with 18% and 19% support respectively. The Post and Courier poll showed Tom earning 24% support amongst black voters, only six points behind first-placed Joe Biden.
While it is certainly frustrating and disappointing that Tom will not be on the stage tonight, we know that Tom is in a good position in the next two states and has the message and organization to compete well beyond that.
THIS RACE IS WIDE OPEN AND TOM IS SURGING
What is clear after Iowa and New Hampshire is that the race to the Democratic nomination is wide open. With only two small, racially homogeneous states voting there is no clear front runner. Until Super Tuesday, when a plurality of delegates are decided, we can’t define this race. A new poll conducted by Change Research, has Tom at 20% and in second in SC, trailing Vice President Biden by only 3% as Biden’s numbers continue to worsen. Another poll done by Beacon Research for our campaign shows Tom statistically tied with Biden for 2nd place, and trailing Senator Sanders by only 6 points in Nevada. The numbers reveal Tom’s strength with African Americans and Latinos, two voting blocks that are critical to picking up delegates in Nevada, South Carolina, and the delegate-rich Super Tuesday states.
TOM APPEALS TO DIVERSE AMERICA WHO WILL WIN US THIS ELECTION
Tom has spent a decade building broad and diverse coalitions to beat corporations and win important victories for America. He has worked extensively with black and brown communities, young people, voters focused on climate, rural communities that are often plagued by pollution, and non-traditional voters. Tom’s core audience reflects the true colorful tapestry that is America. And his numbers are growing in these communities, which are certain to determine the General Election outcome. Recent polls conducted by The Post and Courier and East Carolina University confirmed Tom’s momentum in South Carolina, showing him as a leading candidate with 18% and 19% support. The Post and Courier poll showed Tom earning 24% support amongst black voters in South Carolina, only six points behind first-placed Joe Biden, who may be taking the black vote for granted. We are earning it!
TOM UNIQUELY HAS “ELECTABILITY”
We know that Tom’s profile as a candidate is unique. He is the only person left in the race who has never held public office. He didn’t enter the race as a well-known former candidate, vice president, or mayor. But Tom’s business background makes him the strongest candidate to be able to go head-to-head with Donald Trump on the economy and win. We know that politics-as-usual isn’t going to beat Trump. As more and more Democrats get to know Tom, especially after the Nevada Caucus, the South Carolina debate and its subsequent primary, voters will see he is the best person to beat Trump.
TOM2020 ENERGY ON THE GROUND
Tom is seeing a steady surge of energy on the ground in both Nevada and South Carolina where he has spent the majority of his time even since Iowa.
Some of the high turnout events and important endorsements included:
in Nevada —
- A 1,000 person rally in Las Vegas on Feb. 5.
- A block party in Winnsboro, SC with over 300 people attending and State Representative Annie McDaniel endorsing.
- A meet and greet with over 200 people in Gardnerville, just outside of Reno NV, where Tom was introduced by Jill Derby, former Chairwoman of the Nevada Democratic Party
- A meet and greet in Nevada’s capital, Carson City with a crowd of over 200 people at the campaign’s Carson office.
And in South Carolina —
- An endorsement by Spartanburg Councilman Michael Brown.
- An armchair conversation with former State Representative Harold Mitchell and Dr. Charles Steele of the historic Southern Christian Leadership Council at a standing-room only event.
- A town hall in Greenville with over 500 people attending, featuring an introduction from endorser State Representative Chandra Dillard.
TOM’S FAMILY IS ALL IN
Tom’s family is out on the campaign trail spreading Tom’s message - particularly to African American and Latino audiences, critical endorsers and grass-tops leaders. Sam and Evi Steyer have been crisscrossing Nevada doing campaign events in Minden, Las Vegas, and one in Sparks where they delivered their remarks fully in Spanish. They also have been critical in helping the field team recruit precinct captains.
Kat Taylor, Tom’s wife, moved to South Carolina symbolizing and capitalizing on the fact that as South Carolina goes, so go the Super Tuesday southern states. She has focused particularly on hosting a series of gatherings of African American women, Latinas and AAPI constituents to discuss economic justice and solicit their ideas. Just yesterday, Kat carried over that conversation with AAPI folk and black women in Las Vegas NV. So far, these events have reached at least 500 people, each with concentric circles of influence in their communities.
GROUND GAME IN NV AND SC IS STRONG AND BUILDING
The Tom 2020 campaign has some of the biggest and best field operations on the ground in Nevada and South Carolina. Led by a strong team of women, our Nevada program is focused on organizing in the communities across Nevada where they are from. With a team of more than 50 organizers, the campaign is focused on building a strong precinct captain program and doing events that support the diverse residents of Nevada. This week the team in Nevada has secured some critical endorsements including tribal leaders Arlan and Joyce Melendez, who join State Senator Marcia Washington, Berna Ford and many others in supporting Tom.
In South Carolina, we have 53 organizers who are primarily from the state and organizing in their own communities. Almost half of our staff is working within 10 miles of where they were born. Our team is not just organizing in traditional areas of Columbia and Charleston. They are working in the often neglected areas of the state like Denmark, Hampton, Chester, Bennetsville, and Hopkins - rural communities that are food deserts, health care deserts, and areas facing a water crisis.
Tom’s support in South Carolina runs deep with 12 members of the state legislature supporting him. Importantly, Representative Gilda Cobb Hunter, who is the longest standing African American female legislator and who has never before endorsed a presidential candidate, has become a senior advisor to the campaign where her wisdom and insights are producing enormous results. And the list is growing every day.
STANDOUT ORGANIZING ONLINE
We aren’t just seeing support grow on the ground, we also are seeing it online. Our team has excelled in developing and supporting tools for our supporters to organize online. Our TeamTom app supports relational organizing and content sharing, allowing all activists to share content and track commitment and activity from their friends and family. And we are engaging supporters over Facebook messenger, including over 2 million conversations so far.
Our online team also helps people engage offline across the country. We have over 4500 volunteers who have sent handwritten notecards to supporters and undecided voters in Nevada and South Carolina.
TeamTom is running one of the most sophisticated, data-driven digital advertising programs in the country. We're testing and running hundreds of different pieces of creative at any given time, all the way from broad focus-group-tested persuasion messages to micro-targeted local endorsement messages. Thanks to the constant testing since launch, we're able to run our best-of-the-best, most effective content to voters in Nevada and South Carolina this month. This program is ready and able to compete with Donald Trump's massive misinformation machine, both from an investment perspective and a strategy perspective.
In addition to our expansive digital advertising program, we have built an organic content infrastructure that's different from any other political candidate's program. Opting against treating our considerably sized email list as an ATM, making demands in a one-way conversation, we have instead built a communication apparatus that gives long-time, newly-joined, and prospective supporters meaningful information about who Tom is and what his policies would be as president. We've established a dialogue with our supporters via ongoing surveys, customized information by state and interest, and maintained a heavy focus on voter education for all. This kind of educational, persuasive email program is made possible only by forgoing the traditional model of constant "triple match," "final notice," false urgency fundraising.
THE SUPER TUESDAY STRATEGY IS BEGINNING TO SEE REAL RESULTS
As our campaign builds capacity towards Super Tuesday, we have focused on community lead organizing and outreach. Tom is committed to building a diverse coalition to take on Donald Trump and this is clear in Super Tuesday states where our leadership and organizers have made building this coalition a priority.
This is reflected in some of our endorsements in Super Tuesday states, including:
- Alabama Civil Rights Activist Reverend Gwendolyn Cook Webb who was a leader in the historic 1963 Birmingham Children’s Marches. Cook’s pioneering story continued as she later became the second-ever African-American female police officer hired by the Birmingham police department.
- Angela Bridgeman, North Carolina Democratic Party Precinct Chair and a transgender woman who is running for state office in North Carolina, a state that has systemically tried to strip the rights of LGBTQ people. Running as an outsider, Bridgeman endorsed the only outsider candidate left in the race.
- Former CA State Senator Fran Pavley. Pavley served two terms in the California State Senate and three terms in the California State Assembly, chairing the Senate Natural Resources and Water Committee and earning widespread renown for her pioneering work on environmental and climate change legislation.
- CA Assemblymember Eduardo Garcia - Garcia is the current chair of the Committee on Water, Parks and Wildlife. Garcia most recently led the way on AB 617, a first-of-its-kind program that protects communities disproportionately exposed to air pollution, and SB 200, which funds access to clean drinking water to communities who lack it.
WHAT CAN YOU DO?
Keep doing what you are doing! Keep organizing and spreading the word about Tom and his message. This fight is only just beginning and it's going to take focus and dedication to see it through.
Don’t forget to:
|
Thank you for being a part of this campaign! We want to make sure you're receiving relevant information about how you can help us do what's right. If you'd like to learn more about volunteering, sign up here. If you want to be a delegate for Tom at the DNC convention in Milwaukee this July, click here.
To update your contact information, click here. If you’d rather not receive any emails from us, you can unsubscribe by clicking here — we’ll be sad to see you go!
Tom Steyer 2020 · PO Box 626 · San Francisco, CA 94104 · USA
|
|
|
|
|
