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AEI's weekly digest of top commentary and scholarship on the issues that matter most

Tolerating Disorder

The Collapse of Broken-Windows Policing

July 29, 2023

Broken-windows arrests in New York, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC, have all declined more than 77 percent since 2013. Analyzing comprehensive datasets of arrests, Charles Murray reveals the scope and impact of more lenient policing in America’s largest cities.

 

 

Funding for government-supported job training has been declining for decades, while we continue to struggle to identify what programs work. In a new AEI report, Brent Orrell, Peter Mueser, and Kenneth Troske document funding patterns, estimate effectiveness, and propose reforms that can ensure government-supported programs deliver results.

 

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a perfect tool to sow disinformation and mistrust, allowing adversaries to easily create fake images, documents, and videos. Nonetheless, Elisabeth Braw argues that AI’s greatest potential may be as a defense against this gray-zone aggression.

 

How has Chinese global investment rebounded from the disruptions of COVID-19? Derek Scissors details the patterns of Chinese activity in 2023, while warning that US companies remain dangerously overinvested in China itself.

 

Is conservatism, with all its emphasis on restraint and tradition, to blame for the right’s political failures? Should American conservatives adopt more radical political alternatives? Writing against its critics, Christine Rosen shows why our “technology-saturated” and utopia-hungry society needs conservatism’s attentiveness to the messy reality of human nature more than ever.

Remote Work and City Structure

How has the pandemic permanently reshaped patterns of remote work and commuting across America’s cities? In a new working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, Ferdinando Monte, Charly Porche, and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg use cell-phone-based mobility data to document commuting patterns across over 250 American cities. During the pandemic, commuting into central business districts collapsed 80 percent across the board. Since then, the largest American cities (above 1.5 million workers) have rebounded to only 60 percent of pre-pandemic levels, while smaller cities (below 150,000 workers) have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Real estate prices reflect these new equilibriums: In large cities, housing prices are less affected by distance from the central business district, while small cities’ real estate prices have largely returned to normal patterns.    

 

 

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

Between stubborn and high underlying inflation, financial conditions that aren’t tightening, and real interest rates that are lower than is typical before a significant economic slowdown, there are ample reasons for the Fed to raise rates more than economists and investors currently seem to expect. If that happens, the risk of recession will increase.

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