Coup supporters unfurl a Russian flag after the army seized power in Niamey, Niger, on July 27, 2023. (Photo by Balima Boureima/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Niger, America’s last relatively strong security partner in the Sahel region of West Africa, succumbed to a military coup on July 26. Read Hudson Research Fellow James Barnett’s new policy memo to learn how the West can attempt to mitigate the disaster as the Wagner Group and various jihadist organizations move to consolidate power.

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Key Insights

1. The coup could be a victory for Russia.

The Wagner Group’s growing influence has made matters worse for Western powers seeking to box out any Russian influence in West Africa, as well as for ordinary civilians in the region. Wagner feeds the worst tendencies of West African military regimes, and its cronyist, sledgehammer approach to counterterrorism has backfired in Mali, killing scores of innocent civilians and accelerating jihadist expansion. Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin released a statement on July 27 suggesting that Niger could be a new arena for the mercenary group.

2. The West should not coddle a brutal regime, but full disengagement also presents risks.

The coup plotters in Niger may attempt to chart a middle path between Niger’s traditional security partners and Russia. In this case, the junta leaders may indicate that they wish to maintain elements of the status quo with the West and even pay lip service to human rights and accountability while still engaging in ineffective and violent counterinsurgency practices. The West should be wary of coddling such a regime. (France’s cozy relationship with successive military regimes in Chad is instructive in this regard.) But if the West allows relations to sour completely, the regime may turn fully to external actors like Wagner that enable its most destructive impulses.

3. The tragedy of the coup might also be the key to rolling it back.

Ordinary Nigeriens will bear the brunt of any violence and may see cuts in foreign development and humanitarian assistance. The coup plotters do not seem to have strong popular support, and anti-junta protests have already broken out in Niamey. Nigeriens do not have to look far to see what military rule has done to their neighbors. It is similarly unclear if the whole Nigerien military, which has traditionally been quite factionalized, genuinely supports the coup. Sustained protests from the Nigerien population, combined with fissures within the armed forces and a threat of serious sanctions from ECOWAS, the United States, and the European Union, might put the putschists on their toes.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length. 

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