There is no modern precedent for the current, crowded, state of the Democratic presidential race. 

A supporter holds a Bernie Sanders doll during a Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) rally at the Durham Convention Center on February 14, 2020 in North Carolina. Photo by Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

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Why so many Democrats believe they can win in 2020
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

There is no modern precedent, nor any clear point of comparison for the current, crowded, state of the Democratic presidential race. More candidates are staying in the race longer than at any time in recent history.

In 2008, just four Democrats remained after the New Hampshire primary. Republicans came closer in 2016, with six candidates still in the hunt after the Granite State voted. But at the same point this year, eight Democrats are still standing.

Consider this additional oddity-- after two contests, we have: two different winners (Buttigieg with the Iowa delegate count and Sanders in New Hampshire), a third candidate who is ahead in the next primary state of South Carolina (Biden) and a fourth (Bloomberg) who has soared 15 points in the past few weeks to grab second place in national polls.

While Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., leads national polling ([link removed]) by double digits, nearly every campaign can look at the data through their own set of 2020 glasses to see a reason to stay.

Sanders: The mayor-turned senator has a commanding lead nationally, near wins and wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively and his appeal is expanding. Our PBS NewsHour,NPR and Marist poll shows Sanders as the top pick with all income groups; urban, suburban and rural voters and in all regions of the country. He is also ahead with voters thought to be pivotal in any match-up with President Trump: suburban women. Though that is among Sanders’ slimmest leads.

Bloomberg: This brings us to the New Yorker. Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of NYC, is on the map for two reasons: 1. The $400 million+ he has spent so far in advertising and campaigning (with plans of this number growing) and 2. His astronomical rise in the national polls to second place. Thanks to that, he now also has his first ticket to a debate. Bloomberg will beon stage tomorrow ([link removed]) in Las Vegas ahead of the Nevada caucuses on Feb 22.

Biden: The former vice president may have placed fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire, but his campaign could see those as two small, not diverse states. He remains on top in polls in South Carolina, in third place nationally and we are waiting for updated polls to see if he is holding his strong position in delegate-bonanza states of California and Texas.

Buttigieg: But, wait, what about the man that Iowa Democrats declared to be the winner of their caucuses? Former South Bend, Indiana-mayor Pete Buttigieg placed first in Iowa and a strong second in New Hampshire. And, he has shown he is smart about using his resources. His challenge: He must find a way to appeal to voters of color. Nationally, he ranks fifth with non-white voters. And those voters make up a massive portion of turnout in the next two states: Nevada and South Carolina.

Klobuchar: The Minnesota senator won over many in New Hampshire, and her third place finish there is helping her where she needs it most - fundraising. Armed with some record donation days and the idea that there is an opening for a moderate female candidate, Klobuchar and her team are pushing forward. But like the others below, she needs to start placing higher than third to make it into the longer stretches of the primary.

Warren: Shaking off fourth place in New Hampshire, Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign knows she needs to have a big moment, soon. But they could look at her position in Nevada with hope. She’s in third place with momentum, gaining on Biden. And nationally, her appeal remains strong, in fourth place after Sanders, Bloomberg and Biden in the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist poll.

Steyer: A fascinating study in strategy, billionaire and activist Tom Steyer made an early decision to invest heavily in South Carolina. It has paid off, with him in roughly third place in the Palmetto State now, winning some key endorsements and hiring some advisers ([link removed]) that he hopes will springboard him into clear second. He is hoping to gain off any Biden voters who reconsider.

Gabbard: The current National Guardsman and Hawaii congresswoman placed heavy hope on New Hampshire, but fell short. She placed eighth of the eight remaining candidates. Now she is focusing on Super Tuesday states, including Maine ([link removed]) . And, thanks to her reply to a town hall question ([link removed]) , there remains talk of whether she would consider a third-party run.

FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK

By Alex D’Elia, @ ([link removed]) AlexDEliaNews ([link removed])
Politics production assistant

1. U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Russian Oil Company Supporting Venezuela’s Leader ([link removed]) -- Feb. 18. The United States is ramping up pressure on Venezuela, pushing for the departure of self-proclaimed, but disputed President Nicolas Maduro, this time by targeting a Russian energy company still working with him. Why it matters: The direct effect of these sanctions is not yet clear, but it is a signal of increasing assertiveness from the U.S. regarding Venezuela and, moreover, toward Russians crossing with U.S. policy toward the country. -- The New York Times

2. Virginia lawmakers reject assault weapon ban ([link removed]) -- Feb. 17. The Virginia state senate narrowly voted to reject an assault weapons ban proposed by the state’s governor. l Why it matters: Virginia is a purple state that can shed light on which way closely-contested issues are seen. The assault weapons ban failed after four moderate Democrats joined with Republicans to block it. -- Associated Press

3. How the Iowa caucuses came ‘crashing down’ under the watchful eye of the DNC ([link removed]) -- Feb. 15. The Washington Post does a deep dive on the myriad problems leading up to and during the Democratic Iowa caucuses. Why it matters: The caucuses have been a pillar of modern presidential politics, but this story shows that this year’s problems revealed issues which had been covered or glossed over for years. -- Washington Post

4. Nevada's Culinary Workers Union won't endorse before caucuses ([link removed]) -- Feb. 13. One of the most powerful unions in Nevada has decided to stay out of the Democratic primary fight altogether. Why it matters: Nevada has a relatively large percentage of union members. Yet this is the second cycle (after 2016) this powerful union has determined it was better to stay neutral than get involved in an internal Democratic fight -- The Hill

5. House Votes To Revive Equal Rights Amendment, Removing Ratification Deadline ([link removed]) -- Feb. 13. The Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives votes to extend the deadline to ratify a Constitutional Amendment banning discrimination based on sex, known as the Equal Rights Amendment. Why it matters: Technically, enough states have ratified the amendment to add it to the Constitution, but they did not do so quickly enough. The House vote raises the issue, though the Senate is not likely to agree to extending the deadline. -- NPR


#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

On this day in 1856, the short-lived American Party, also referred to as the “Know Nothings,”chose former president Millard Fillmore as its presidential nominee. The party was based on a populist anti-immigrant movement that particularly questioned the influx and role of Irish Catholic immigrants. Fillmore did not win the election, but did receive the second-highest percentage of any third-party presidential candidate in U.S. history.

Our question: what percentage of the popular vote, to the closest percent, did Filmore receive?

Bonus question: Fill out the top three of the third-party presidential candidates. Fillmore ranks second in American history. Name who was first and who third. (By percentage of popular vote.)

Send your answers to or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Two weeks ago, we asked: How many days after the caucuses did the Iowa GOP announce that Rick Santorum had actually finished first by 34 votes? The answer is 16 days. We also accepted “too long” (when accompanied by “16 days” in the same answer).

Congratulations to our winners: Barry Weinstein and Steve Kovalic!!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your Inbox next week.
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