[The Socialist may remain prime minister if he can cobble together
enough support from wildly different political groups.]
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SÁNCHEZ’S TRICKY ROAD TO VICTORY AFTER SHOCK SPANISH ELECTION
RESULT  
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Aitor Hernandez-Morales
July 24, 2023
Politico
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_ The Socialist may remain prime minister if he can cobble together
enough support from wildly different political groups. _

Pedro Sánchez is on track to remain Spain’s prime minister for the
foreseeable future , Javier Soriano/AFP via Getty Images

 

MADRID — If you thought the political drama in Spain would conclude
with Sunday’s national election, think again.

The inconclusive national vote
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in a split parliament with no clear governing majority. The
center-right Popular Party secured the most votes, but it doesn’t
have nearly enough seats to form a government on its own or even with
the far-right Vox party, its preferred coalition partner.

On Sunday night, conservative leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo
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he would attempt to form a minority government and demanded “no one
be tempted to blockade Spain.”

Feijóo argued the country has always been governed by the leader who
secures the most votes, and insisted the future government needed to
be “in accordance with the electoral victory.”

But in parliamentary democracies like Spain, the head of government
isn’t necessarily the person who wins the most votes in the
election, but rather the one who can secure the support of the
greatest share of MPs
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and right now Feijóo does not have the backing needed to make his
candidacy for prime minister viable.

Socialist leader and current Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, meanwhile,
has a possible — though extremely complex — route to victory.

Sánchez’s Socialists and his preferred partners, Yolanda Díaz’s
left-wing Sumar coalition, control 153 seats in parliament. Although
the left-wing allies are unlikely to secure the backing of the 176 MPs
needed for Sánchez to be confirmed as prime minister the first time
the new parliament votes on the matter, they could make a bid during
the second round of voting, in which the candidate to head the new
government must receive more yeas than nays.

But Sánchez will have to move quickly to prove his bid to stay in
power is realistic.

A break, then a visit with the king

After a grueling campaign characterized by ugly, personal attacks,
everybody needs a breather. So it’s just as well that Spain’s
parliament is only due to be reconvened on August 17, when MPs will be
sworn in.

But once parliament is back in session, Sánchez will have to clear an
initial royal hurdle.

In the days following the start of the new parliamentary session,
Spain’s King Felipe VI will summon the leaders of the political
groups for consultations at Zarzuela Palace and quiz them on who they
think has the most support to form a government.

Feijóo will press his case and insist that, as the leader of the
party that received the most votes, he should be named the candidate
for the next prime minister.

While thus far Spain’s prime minister has indeed always been the
politician who garnered the most votes in the election, Pablo Simón,
a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III university, said the
king’s responsibility would be to entrust the formation of a new
government to whichever leader can show they have the backing to
overcome the key investiture votes in the Spanish parliament.

“The king is cautious and will follow the rules set out in the
constitution,” Simón said. “In other words, he’ll order a
government from the person whose candidacy is viable.”

So Sánchez will need to ensure that when he shows up at Zarzuela
Palace, he does so with a convincing list of supporters, preferably
with several other party leaders openly indicating their willingness
to back his candidacy.

Epic horse-trading

If Sánchez succeeds and the king names him the candidate to be
Spain’s next prime minister, the incumbent will have several weeks
to negotiate with potential backers.

In 2019, Sánchez managed to form Spain’s first left-wing coalition
government by striking deals with regional parties
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supported his candidacy in parliament in exchange for concessions in
the form of infrastructure like new railways or hospitals.

But in these high-stakes elections, voters opted to back larger
parties, and smaller ones like the Teruel Existe citizens movement —
which was key to Sánchez’s victory in 2019 — lost their seats in
parliament.

This time around, Sánchez will need Basque and Catalan separatist
groups like EH Bildu and the Republican Left of Catalonia to vote in
favor of his candidacy. He’ll also need to convince Junts — the
party founded by former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont
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against him.

Although Sánchez’s left-wing coalition government has sought to
mend ties and take a softer approach with Catalan separatists during
the past four years, relations are by no means ideal.

Puigdemont, who fled Spain in the immediate aftermath of the
2017 Catalan independence referendum
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remains in self-imposed exile in Belgium. The politician, who is
currently a member of the European Parliament, recently had his legal
immunity stripped
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a top EU court, paving the way for his extradition to Spain.

On Sunday, Junts candidate Míriam Nogueras told the press her party
had “understood the result” and would “take advantage of the
opportunity.”

But she signaled negotiations with the Socialists would not be easy,
and that a positive outcome was by no means certain.

“This is a possibility for change, to recover unity,” she said.
“But we will not make Pedro Sánchez president in exchange for
nothing.”

What next for Sánchez and Feijóo

If Sánchez is asked to form a government but fails to win the
required support in parliament, Spain is likely to face a new
election.

Feijóo could press the king to allow him to try to form a government
if Sánchez’s bid fails. But his backing in the parliament is
unlikely to be altered dramatically in the next few months, meaning he
probably wouldn’t have the necessary support to succeed.

Moreover, if Sánchez loses the votes in parliament, Feijóo may well
decide he’s better off waiting for new elections in which he can
argue that his opponent wasted everyone’s time and left Spain
without an effective government for an entire season.

The Spanish constitution dictates that the king is obliged to dissolve
the legislative body two months after the first failed investiture
vote. Given that a new ballot must be held 54 days after the
legislature concludes, if Sánchez fails to secure parliament’s
support, Spaniards would go to the polls again at the end of this
year or, more likely, at the beginning of 2024.

Until a new prime minister is confirmed by parliament, Sánchez will
remain as head of government in a caretaker position with limited
powers [[link removed]]: No
new laws can be adopted except in emergencies.

That means that, whatever happens, Sánchez is on track to remain
Spain’s prime minister for the foreseeable future — but what’s
next for Popular Party leader Feijóo is less clear.

When Feijóo attempted to deliver a speech to supporters Sunday night,
the crowd drowned out
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conservative politician by shouting the name of Madrid’s populist
regional president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso
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Prior to the election Ayuso, who is wildly popular among Popular Party
voters, implied
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support for Feijóo’s leadership was linked to him winning this
election.

Despite scoring the most votes, whether Feijóo fulfilled his mission
may now be matter of opinion.

_AITOR HERNÁNDEZ-MORALES is a reporter for POLITICO and the author of
our Living Cities Global Policy Lab._

_Prior to joining POLITICO, Aitor covered Portuguese politics and
social issues as the Lisbon-based correspondent for Spain’s El Mundo
and the Cadena SER radio network, and collaborated with Spain’s El
Español and Ahora Semanal, France’s Courrier International, and
Canada’s CTV News. He also spent several years working in the civil
infrastructure sector, and previously served on El Mundo’s
International and Breaking News desks, where he covered European
affairs._

_Born in Pamplona, Spain, but raised in Miami, Florida, Aitor has
lived in Germany, Spain, Portugal and Italy. He speaks English,
Spanish and Portuguese fluently and has a working knowledge of French,
German and Italian._

_POLITICO is the global authority on the intersection of politics,
policy, and power. It is the most robust news operation and
information service in the world specializing in politics and policy,
which informs the most influential audience in the world with insight,
edge, and authority. Founded in 2007, POLITICO has grown to a team of
700 working across North America, more than half of whom are editorial
staff._

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* elections
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* socialists
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