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**JULY 24, 2023**

Kuttner on TAP

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**** Spain Keeps the Far Right Out

The surprise outcome in Sunday's election should not have been that
much of a surprise.

In the run-up to Sunday's Spanish general election, pollsters and
commentators almost universally predicted that the conservative Popular
Party would form the next government, ousting the left coalition headed
by Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez; and worse, that the
conservatives would govern with the neofascist Vox party.

This would bring the far right into government for the first time since
the end of the Franco dictatorship and would halt the process of
Spain's coming to terms with the crimes of the Franco era, under the
Law of Historical Memory, a process that the left government has led.
Vox's demands also included a reversal of recent laws guaranteeing
LGBTQ rights.

But the election did not work out that way. The more that voters learned
about Vox, they less they liked it. Vox lost 19 of its 52 seats in the
Spanish parliament. The Socialists picked up two seats.

The Popular Party leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, was advertised as a
kind of center-right version of Joe Biden, undramatic but reassuring.
But Sánchez, once again, proved the better politician, having called
this snap election after the Socialists' losses in several regional
elections, and gambling correctly that Vox would prove to be its own
worst enemy.

Sánchez has also benefited from having been a very effective leader.
His anti-inflation measures cooled prices without creating a recession;
Spain now has the EU's lowest inflation rate, at just 1.6 percent. And
his government's COVID vaccination and paid furlough program was also
effective and appreciated.

At this point, Spain has what the Brits call a hung parliament
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It takes 176 votes to form a government in the 350-member Spanish
parliament. The Socialists and their usual left coalition partners in
Podemos and other radical parties have about 154 votes. The Popular
Party plus Vox have 170 votes.

Seemingly, the arithmetic favors the right. But Sánchez, as prime
minister, has several options. He could call another election, or he
could work out a deal with the remaining parties, nearly all of which
are Catalan or Basque separatists. Those parties would be more inclined
to support the left than the right, either in a coalition or from
outside the coalition but allowing Sánchez and the left to govern.

As political scientist Omar Encarnación wrote
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in

**The New York Review of Books**, a week before the election, "Despite a
well-earned reputation as disruptors and political spoilers, separatist
parties have also made significant contributions to Spanish democracy.
They introduced political freedoms during the interwar years, led the
resistance to Franco's authoritarian regime, and ensured the success
of the transition to democracy in the 1970s. Less apparent, though just
as important, is that in recent years they have emerged as xxxxxxs
against the far right."

In addition to having a flawed crystal ball, many commentators reviewing
the results made the lazy error of describing Spain as narrowly divided
between center left and center right. Pedro Sánchez is not center left.
He is a socialist and an effective one.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

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