Here’s a classic Biden half-truth. “Real worker wages are rising again.” There is a scintilla of truth to this. For the first time in the 30 months of the Biden presidency, the real weekly earnings of workers slightly outpaced inflation. Bravo.
For the previous 29 months, real weekly wages FELL by a lot. Our best estimate is roughly over $4,000 in real LOSSES in income per family.
The chart below compares the trend of weekly earnings and the inflation rate under Trump, versus the trend under Biden. Under Trump, warnings consistently rose above the inflation of prices, while under Biden we've seen the opposite. Usually in a recovery — with COVID ending by mid-2021 — you would see a boom.
The so-called BRICS nations of China, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa are attempting to move forward with their plan to create a new multi-nation rival currency to the dollar. Their hope is to take away the dollar's reserve currency status – a commanding height that greatly benefits the U.S. economy. More than two-thirds of global transactions are denominated in dollars.
This new currency - if it ever gets off the ground – reminds us of Europe’s play to replace the dollar with the Euro. As the chart below shows, that didn’t work so well, as the Euro has lost steady ground to the dollar over the past fifteen years. It turns out socialism, high taxes, and green energy subsidies don’t inspire confidence in international markets. Our co-founder Larry Kudlow has called Europe’s common currency the “Euro-Peso.”
Biden’s backward economic policies haven’t done much to inspire confidence in the dollar – but we are still the least rotten apple in the cart.
That’s how much the Biden war on fossil fuels has cost the U.S. economy since Biden entered office. The price has averaged just under $80 a barrel under Biden, versus an average of $65 a barrel under Trump, and $60 a barrel when Trump left office.
As the chart below shows, and as calculated by CTUP senior fellow Casey Mulligan, we are roughly 2 billion barrels of production under Biden, versus where we would be with Trump’s pro-drilling policies. America would be roughly $135 billion richer if we stuck with the America First energy strategy.
4) California’s Latest 2050 Population Estimate Is Down by Almost 20 Million
According to new California State Department of Finance (DOF) projections, California will have slightly fewer residents in 2060 (39,508,000) than in 2020 (39,520,000). This is down 4.7 million from the previous (2021) projection. Stunningly, the 2023 projections for 2050 are 19.5 million below the 2007 DOF projection of 59.5 million. This drop is about equal to New York State’s present population of 19.6 million.
Why has California scaled back so much on its population expectations?
The top factor is net domestic out-migration. According to a US Census Bureau report, 3.5 million more people moved out of California than from other states and DC since 2000. This is nearly as many people as live in the city of Los Angeles, the largest city in California and the second largest in the United States.
Much of the domestic migration is due to California’s severely unaffordable housing. The cost of living, the high-income taxes in the country, and a thoroughly left-wing culture of intolerance are people's repellants.
Then, as we showed last week in the Hotline, there are fewer babies being born in the Golden State. California’s Total Fertility Rate (the number of live births per woman of childbearing age), ranks 43rd among the states.
One lesson for this is to beware long term forecasts. They are almost ALWAYS wrong – especially when it comes to population growth.
5) Congress Is Already Violating the Debt Deal Budget Caps
We wish we could blame this on Biden and Bernie Sanders, but Republicans are in on this scam. Remember: under the Debt Limit Deal Between Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy we were supposed to cap spending at 2022 levels. But a new Heritage Foundation fiscal report finds that just a few months after the deal was signed, both parties are finding stealth ways around the limits:
The Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) features potential “budgetary adjustments” that could raise FY 2024 spending limits $42 billion above the FY 2023 level.
The FRA could classify billions of dollars of non-defense discretionary spending as “emergency” spending that is not subject to caps.
After accounting for adjustments, discretionary spending in the FRA would never fall below FY 2023 levels.
We recommend this video, which explains the budget hocus pocus.
