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JULY 13, 2023

Meyerson on TAP

The Midterms Weren't as Abnormal as We'd Thought

Republicans' (and old folks') turnout eclipsed the Democrats' (and
young'uns')-one reason why McCarthy is Speaker.

Last year's midterm elections were more normal than we thought.

So far, virtually all the analysis and commentary (mine included) have
focused on their singular abnormality: the fact that the Democrats
weren't wiped out, as parties in power (most particularly those with
unpopular presidents) tend to be in midterms. Democrats held their
razor-thin control of the Senate, lost the House only very narrowly, and
won key statewide and state legislative contests. Women turned out to
bolster pro-choice candidates, and Republican election deniers collapsed
in a heap. To be sure, Democrats' weakness among working-class voters
extended beyond the white working class to what, for Democrats, was a
disturbing percentage of the Latino working class as well. But that
didn't gainsay the fact that the Democrats did far better than those
who expected a more "normal" midterm had anticipated.

All of that is still true, but it's not the whole picture. Yesterday,
the Pew Research Center released a close study
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of last year's electorate, which documented that Republicans'
turnout eclipsed the Democrats' last November, which is why Kevin
McCarthy is now the House Speaker.

What made the biggest difference was the drop-off in voter
participation. Seventy-one percent of people who'd voted for Donald
Trump in 2020 cast ballots in last year's midterms, while just 67
percent of those who'd voted for Joe Biden turned out (or mailed in)
to vote last year. A larger share of 2020 Biden voters cast their
ballots for Republicans last year (7 percent) than the share of 2020
Trumpers who went Democratic (3 percent).

This advantage to the out-party is what you'd expect in a midterm
election. Comparing 2022 turnout not just to that in 2020, but also to
that in 2018, when out-party Democrats surged to the polls in a display
of Trump revulsion, Pew found:

People who voted in 2018 who did not turn out in 2022 ("drop-off"
voters), had favored Democrats in 2018 by about two-to-one (64% to 33%).
Likewise, about a third of 2020 voters (32%) did not turn out in 2022.
This group voted 53% to 43% for Joe Biden. The absence of these 2020
Biden voters resulted in a worse performance for Democratic candidates
in 2022.

As in "normal" midterms, last year's electorate saw less drop-off
among older voters and more among the young, who are among the most
pro-Democratic cohort. "Voters under 30," Pew wrote, "accounted for 10%
of the electorate in 2022-similar to their share of all voters in 2018
(11%), but down from 2020 (14%)." By contrast, "Voters ages 50 and older
were a larger share of the total in 2022 (64%) than in any of the past
three elections. 70% of Republican voters were 50 or older, as were 57%
of Democratic voters."

As voters under 30 backed Democratic candidates over Republicans by a 68
percent to 31 percent margin last November, and those over 65 backed
Republicans by a 56 percent to 42 percent margin, the fall-off among
young voters was one of the (many) factors that gave Republicans their
overall 51 percent to 47 percent lead in the total vote for all House
contests.

There are obviously a host of issues Democrats in general and Biden in
particular need to address to win in 2024, and a host of constituencies,
both base and swing, whose concerns should demand their focus. Clearly,
boosting turnout among the young requires work on the Plan B version of
student debt relief, sustaining a good job market and contrasting their
economic policies with the Republicans', and a relentless focus on
abortion rights. And a ground game like nobody's business.

~ HAROLD MEYERSON

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Unionized Workers at Blue Bird Hit the Next Hurdle: a Contract
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An assist from Biden administration electric bus subsidies helped pave
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Live to Ride Another Day
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The end of COVID emergency funding forces public-transit systems,
states, and cities to get creative about new funding. BY GABRIELLE
GURLEY

As Recovery Dollars Recede, Public-School Summer Programs Disappear
<[link removed]>
Many low-income students will lose access to academic opportunities and
recreational activities. BY LIZ ROSENBERG

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