Daily News Brief

July 13, 2023

Top of the Agenda

Leaders from countries neighboring Sudan are meeting in Cairo today (Reuters) as the war in Sudan nears the three-month mark. More than three million people have been displaced since April. Repeated attempts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to broker peace between the warring Sudanese military and the paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been unsuccessful after several cease-fire violations. Sudan’s military boycotted an East African summit (Reuters) on Tuesday aimed at advancing peace talks, saying that the leading sponsor, Kenya, was biased. 

Egypt has historically backed Sudan’s military and has framed its mediation efforts as a push to address the conflict with less foreign interference. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has posited a potential three-month cease-fire. Meanwhile, a report this week published by the humanitarian group Insecurity Insight found that continued conflict in Sudan over the next two to five months could exacerbate food insecurity (ReliefWeb), afflicting more than nineteen million people.

Analysis

“Non-state actors could potentially exploit Sudan’s crisis in ways that would directly threaten Egypt,” Gulf State Analytics’ Giorgio Cafiero writes for Al Jazeera. “The possibility of Sudan’s crisis spreading to other African countries is also unsettling to el-Sisi’s government.”

“The conflict between [Sudanese army chief] Burhan and [RSF General] Hemeti is not just a domestic squabble. Sudan is a bridge that links the Middle East and Africa, and its abundant natural resources mean the battle for Khartoum has taken on a regional dimension,” Middle East expert Talal Mohammad writes for Foreign Policy. 

This In Brief by CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy looks at Sudan’s humanitarian crisis.

Pacific Rim

Pita Limjaroenrat of the progressive Move Forward Party is the sole candidate in today’s election. He still requires votes (Al Jazeera) from beyond his own party in order to win, but he has not yet secured enough votes to earn the bid. Yesterday, a court agreed to review a complaint against Limjaroenrat’s party that could disqualify him. 

Indonesia: At this week’s summit for the Association of Southeast Asian States (ASEAN) in Jakarta, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov proposed reviving trade with Russia (Nikkei)  in national currencies rather than U.S. dollars, enabling Russia to avoid Western sanctions.

South and Central Asia

New Delhi approved the purchase (Bloomberg) of three submarines and twenty-six aircraft, India’s defense ministry said, as the country looks to diversify its supply sources beyond Russia. The announcement parallels Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day visit to France that begins today.

Pakistan: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has transferred $1.2 billion (Dawn) into Islamabad’s central bank account, a day after its board approved a $3 billion loan agreement with the country, Pakistan’s finance minister said.

Middle East and North Africa

The announcement comes during a period (Al-Monitor) in which the Public Investment Fund  has been investing heavily in foreign companies. It is currently considering a $1 billion merger with the United States’ PGA Tour.

Sub-Saharan Africa

A police officer told the Associated Press that security forces killed six people during yesterday’s nationwide protests that saw demonstrators objecting to the rising cost of living. President William Ruto recently introduced a tax hike doubling the fees on products such as gasoline, which protestors seek to be repealed.

For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR expert Michelle Gavin discusses the challenges facing Ruto.

Mozambique: Former Finance Minister Manuel Chang was extradited (NYT) to the United States yesterday, where he faces charges of conspiracy to commit fraud and money laundering.

Europe

During a speech wrapping up the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden pledged not to waver (NYT) in the United States’ support of Ukraine and drew comparisons between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Cold War.

At this media briefing, CFR experts Steven A. Cook, Liana Fix, and Matthias Matthijs discuss takeaways from the NATO summit.

Russia: A Russian general said via audio message to troops that he was fired (FT) after issuing a bleak prognosis of the battle situation on the frontlines against Ukraine.

Americas

More than two weeks after Guatemala’s first-round election, election authorities said they would certify the results (AP), while a separate prosecutor announced that the second-place party is suspended ahead of the August runoff. A U.S. State Department official said Washington was “deeply concerned” (NYT) by the suspension’s threat to democracy. 

For Foreign Affairs, CFR expert Will Freeman discusses Guatemalan elite’s efforts to meddle in the election.

Venezuela: Eight opposition presidential hopefuls held a debate yesterday (Reuters) for the first time since 2011 in an effort to project unity ahead of Venezuela’s 2024 election. The conditions under which they might compete are still unclear as they await a court ruling on the October nomination process. Three of the most popular prospective candidates have already been banned from holding public office.

United States

Hackers seeking information useful to the Chinese government breached the email accounts of officials, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, in March, the Washington Post reported. The FBI is investigating the incident.

Council on Foreign Relations

58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065

1777 F Street, NW — Washington, DC 20006

Shop the CFR Store

Forward This Email

Manage Your Email Preferences