Ben Shapiro


The going assumption has been that if the 2024 presidential race were between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the election would be a referendum on Trump because Trump is toxic in terms of the media, independents generally don’t like him, and we have run this race at least once before.


Donald Trump is not a wildly popular candidate with the American people. His unfavorable ratings are exceptionally high. But the 2024 race, due to exogenous events and the bad governance of Joe Biden, could in fact turn into the 2016 race rather than the 2020 race.


We’re seeing an anti-Biden wave in the polls. The real story here is that Joe Biden can’t break through. Biden has been mired in the low to mid-forties, barely touching 46% at best in recent polls.


The last time we had an incumbent Democrat president running against a Republican was Obama/Romney. If you look at the polling data during that time, Barack Obama never sank _below_ 46% in the national polling at any point during that race.


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With Trump in the forties and Biden in the forties, the question is: Where are the rest of the votes?


Who are the swing voters? The answer is, there _are no swing voters_. It’s not about swing voters.


So, the _real_ question is: Who’s going to stay home? Joe Biden could cause Democrats to stay home because he is a very, very bad president. People do not like him. People are not enamored with him. He doesn’t excite anyone.


It’s quite possible that Donald Trump could sneak in, not because of a Trump wave, but because of a Biden wave of apathy.


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You could get the exact scenario we had in 2016 when people in Wisconsin, who were somewhat ok with Hillary Clinton, just didn’t care enough to show up.


But Joe Biden has been running on the simple basis that people hate Trump enough that they’ll reelect Biden.


What polls are showing is, a huge percentage of the American population does not like this election choice between Trump and Biden. The Democrats assume in the end the voters will show up for Biden. But what if many of them decide, “You know what? I don’t care. I hate both of them. I’m staying home.”?


That certainly benefits Trump.


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Ep. 1763 - ‘The View’ Throws A Baby Under The Bus

The media rush to Joe Biden’s defense as he struggles to keep his presidency afloat; a whistleblower alleging Chinese corruption with the Biden family is hit with criminal charges; and NATO gathers to discuss Ukraine.

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Joe Biden is exciting absolutely no one. It’s a disaster for the Democrats.


The real outlier is not that Trump doesn’t perform that well; the real outlier is that Biden is performing poorly, more like Hillary Clinton circa 2016 than Barack Obama circa 2012.


That is a very scary result for Democrats. And so you’re starting to see a drumbeat that perhaps Joe Biden needs to go away.


Now the media are stuck in this weird situation. There’s a lot of romantic talk about Gavin Newsom, except Gavin Newsom is not a good candidate. Gavin Newsom appears to be slimy. He looks like a movie villain from an Oliver Stone flick about what’s happening on Wall Street. He has the Gordon Gekko haircut. He also happens to be incompetent. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan has a lot of strikes against her. And, of course, the Vice President of the United States is the single most unpopular vice presidential officeholder in modern American history. No one likes Kamala Harris.


So they’re stuck with Biden, between a rock and a hard place. They have to uphold the old man, but they know the old man is fading.


They need the zombie candidate. They need El Cid riding the horse. They need “Weekend at Bernie’s.”



Because they think that if they don’t run Biden, who exactly are they going to run?


What’s happening right now is that it may not be a referendum on Trump at all.


If all the focus is on Joe Biden, he will lose.


**Ben Shapiro**

Editor Emeritus,

The Daily Wire

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