Friend –

As we head into the holiday weekend, I want to share a few quick updates on how the mega global stories are reverberating in our nation’s capital.

Like everyone in the foreign policy space, I have been talking to a lot of people about the ramifications of the Wagner – Putin turmoil and what it means to Ukraine and beyond. I’m keeping a close eye on how this impacts the Wagner mercenaries' growing strength throughout Africa given their horrifying criminal acts.

Lots of insights came out of  USGLC’s recent powerhouse Global Impact Forum and as one seasoned reporter said to me, “I was blown away with your lineup and the level of conversation on the stage!”

• 500 of our top state leaders from across the country joined in-person and over 160,000 viewers joined online
• We kicked off with U.S. Ambassador to China, Nick Burns – live from Beijing – and ended with Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, on stage.
• In between, we talked about the global food crisis with World Food Program chief Cindy McCain, national security with former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, and much more.

Check out our short recap video here – plus lots below in the latest GLOBAL GAB, including insights on the aftermath of Blinken’s China trip.

The timing of USGLC’s Forum was critical – as both the House and Senate released their topline spending levels – including for the International Affairs Budget – for the upcoming fiscal year before leaving for the July 4th recess. Unfortunately, despite unprecedented global threats and the growing competition with China, both proposals fall well short of what is truly needed to advance America's security and economic interests. More below including comments of concerns from policymakers on both sides of the aisle.

Lastly, I just returned from USGLC’s annual Heartland Summit, which was fantastic, other than trying to travel these days! I was live from Sioux City, Iowa with Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) and my colleagues were live from Detroit, MI with Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) and Haley Stevens (D-MI). More on the conversations next week when all of our team makes it back home – just a few too many cancelled flights!

Wishing you and your family easy travels and a happy Fourth of July.

Best,
Liz

Liz Schrayer, USGLC

P.S. Don’t forget to follow USGLC on Twitter or Instagram if you haven't already, as the content of our latest conversations around the country is truly terrific.

THE GLOBAL GAB
Wagner in Africa, Blinken in China, Spotted at USGLC’s Forum
June 30, 2023

RUSSIA IN TURMOIL
The entire world was stunned this last weekend as Russia plunged deeper into chaos with Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and President Vladimir Putin in battle as Wagner’s troops took over the city of Rostov-on-Don and marched 120 miles short of Moscow. Here’s what we’re watching:

• As we saw, the crisis canceled significant overseas trips for National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley as Secretary of State Tony Blinken told CBS’s Face the Nation: “When we’re dealing with a major power… that has nuclear weapons… it’s something we’re going to watch very, very carefully.”
  
  
• As policymakers continue to assess what this means for the war in Ukraine, outgoing Council of Foreign Relations President Richard Haass says the central question is whether the events “shake Putin’s confidence that time is on his side in the Ukraine war… and, if it does, whether it leads him to escalate or show a willingness to compromise.”
  
  
• We’re also monitoring what the turmoil might mean for Wagner’s significant presence in Africa. The U.S. currently estimates that Wagner has close to 5,000 personnel across the contininent, where its soldiers have been accused of horrific crimes. By mid-week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that the paramilitary group’s operations “will continue” in the Central African Republic and Mali.

CHINA RESET?
Before Russia plummeted into further turmoil, all eyes had been on China with Secretary Blinken making his first trip to America’s top competitor as Secretary of State. The postponed visit came almost four months after “Balloongate” – and was the first Cabinet-level visit to Beijing since 2019.

• Just ahead of Secretary Blinken’s visit, U.S. Ambassador to China Nick Burns “zoomed” into USGLC’s Global Impact Forum direct from Beijing, kicking off the program and previewing the stakes: “We've taken the position that because we have major differences between China and the United States, we've got to have more consistent conversations.”
  
  
• On the ground, Blinken held over 11 hours of meetings in Beijing with official readouts citing discussions on the war in Ukraine, trade, fentanyl, human rights, and responsible competition. It was seen as particularly significant that the visit concluded with Blinken holding direct talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping – and reports of movement by China on confronting fentanyl production and trafficking.
  
  
• Chairman of the House Select Committee on China, Mike Gallagher (R-WI), told USGLC’s Global Impact Forum: “If you want to win the competition, you actually have to show up,” adding that “for a very modest investment of U.S. resources, we can have an outsized impact” when it comes to American diplomacy and development.
  
  
• ICYMI: As Blinken departed for Beijing, Liz Schrayer and former CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel, penned an important op-ed on how “America’s diplomacy and global development toolkit is essential to our China strategy and to our core security and economic agenda.”
  
  
• Be smart: In 2000, America was the top trading partner for 80% of the world. Today, it’s China who is the top trading partner for two thirds of the world and the U.S. rings in at 30% of countries where it is the top market.

UKRAINE RECONSTRUCTION TOPS AGENDA
As Ukraine faces a potential $411 billion bill for reconstruction, leaders from partner countries and the private sector joined a Ukraine Recovery Conference in London with partners committing billions of dollars in new assistance.

• The European Union pledged an additional $55 billion in loans and grants through 2027. The United Kingdom committed another $3 billion and the U.S. pledged another $1.3 billion in recovery aid, on top of $63 billion in U.S. assistance already provided to Ukraine, according to the State Department.
  
  
• Representing a total market capitalization of $5.3 trillion, more than 500 businesses and organizations from more than 40 countries signed a new Ukraine Business Compact. Signatories included member organizations of USGLC’s Board of Directors with commitments from Cargill, Deloitte, Citigroup, Google, and World Vision.
  
  
• With Ukraine top of mind, former Secretary of Defense Dr. Mark Esper spoke out on the imperative for American global leadership at USGLC’s Global Impact Forum: “When we don't lead bad things happen, others fill the vacuum. States like Russia and China – autocracies will step in and do things that are contrary to our values, which I think it's why it's so important for us to lead.”
  
  
  • He added: “It's not just in the military space, but it's diplomacy, its foreign aid, its foreign assistance, all those things that constitute a leader’s true power.”
    
    
• Receiving two standing ovations from USGLC’s leaders at the Forum, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova, expressed her nation’s deep appreciation for America’s support:
  
  
  • “We're so grateful to American people… This is important for the national security interest of the U.S. and for us and for Europe for all NATO countries… to show that rule of law matters… democracy matters and democracy is worth fighting for.”

BUDGET BATTLES
Before leaving for the Congressional July 4th recess, both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees approved topline funding levels for next year’s federal budget. The two proposals for the U.S. International Affairs Budget fall far short of responding to what’s needed to advance and protect America’s security and economic interests.

Here is USGLC’s statement calling the House proposal “dangerous” to our economic and security interests alongside USGLC’s detailed budget update. Not surprising, senior members on Capitol Hill – from both sides of the aisle – have been raising concerns on whether the U.S. is committing the resources, particularly to compete with China:

• Senate State, Foreign Operations Subcommittee Chair Chris Coons (D-DE): “The consequences of that [House proposed cuts] would be grave … I don’t think we can compete globally and do our job by the American people by slashing funding and turning inward.” [video]
  
  
• Subcommittee Ranking Member Lindsey Graham (R-SC): “Without some soft power, as General Mattis said, you better buy a lot more bullets. Because if you don’t show up and turn things around before it’s too late, you wind up getting sucked into military conflict, where you lose influence in a world that China is trying to dominate.” [video]
  
  
• House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mike McCaul (R-TX) said about the Administration’s budget request, “If we’re not on the field, we can’t win, we can’t compete... I am always asked ‘how are you countering China,’ specifically Belt and Road… in my judgement we’re not winning right now.”
  
  
• Committee Ranking Member Gregory Meeks (D-NY) reaffirmed his opposition to the proposed cuts at that hearing, “One thing we cannot do is say we are competing [with China] but then tie our agencies’ hands through budget cuts” especially as U.S. development spending “pales in comparison to the amount of money China is spending on infrastructure.”
  
  

SPOTTED AT THE FORUM
An important thank you to this year’s Global Impact Forum media partner Semafor and the indefatigable Steve Clemons plus the Forum sponsors: Gilead, Amazon, Merck, FHI360, Tetra Tech, and Food for the Hungry. Catch all the high-impact quick-moving sessions here:

• America’s China Strategy: Ambassador Nick Burns [video] plus Chairman Mike Gallagher (R-WI) [video]
  
  
• Global Threats and Conflict: Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper [video] and Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova [video]
  
  
• Fighting the Global Food Crisis: Ambassador Cindy McCain [video]
  
  
• Driving America’s Economic Competitiveness: MCC CEO Alice Albright, Treasury Under Secretary Dr. Jay Shambaugh, and Citi’s Candi Wolff [video]
  
  
• PEPFAR@20 Years: SFOPs Ranking Member Barbara Lee (D-CA), Global AIDS Coordinator Ambassador John Nkengasong, former Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Gilead’s Deborah Telman, and Abt Associates’ Roslyn Brock [video]
  
  
• Global Health Security: PMI’s Dr. David Walton and Merck’s Paul Schaper [video]
  
  
• AI, Tech, and Global Development: USAID’s Chris Burns and Ambassador Karan Bhatia of Google [video]
  
  
• Addressing the Global Refugee Crisis: UNHCR’s Kelly Clements and USAID’s Sarah Charles [video]
  
  
• Global Crises Spotlight: CNN’s Clarissa Ward [video]
  
  
• Watch the 3-minute highlights reel here!
  
  

BEST SHOUTOUT: PEFPAR@20
In a powerful moment on USGLC’s Global Impact Forum stage, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) introduced her friend – and fellow co-founder of the bipartisan HIV/AIDS Caucus – Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) as the “Mother of PEPFAR” recognizing not only Congresswoman Lee's personal role in the creation of this transformational program, but the years of tireless advocacy and leadership of the Congressional Black Caucus.

• Rep. Lee challenged the audience, “We have saved over 25 million lives” and “we will achieve an AIDS free generation by 2030 if we stay the course.”