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Members of Wagner patrol in an area near a tank outside a circus building in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24, 2023. (Photo by STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images)

After months of feuding with the Russian Ministry of Defense, yesterday evening Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Private Military Company left their positions in Ukraine and moved into Russia. They now occupy key locations, including in Rostov-on-Don [[link removed]], which is Russia’s headquarters for its operations in Ukraine.

For months, Hudson experts have been analyzing Prigozhin’s feud with the Russian military and have been warning about possible chaos in Russia. Last December, Senior Fellow Luke Coffey [[link removed]] wrote that policymakers need to prepare for the possible dissolution of the Russian Federation [[link removed]]. See excerpts from his policy memo below.

Read the Policy Memo [[link removed]]

Key Insights

1. The Soviet Union's Collapse Did Not End in 1991

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the resignation of Mikhail Gorbachev as president of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the start of the USSR’s collapse—but not the collapse itself. While the USSR ceased to exist as a legal entity after 1991, the collapse of the USSR is still happening today. The two Chechen Wars, Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the on-and-off border skirmishes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the 2020 Second Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan are just a few examples showing that the Soviet Union is still collapsing today.

2. The Russia-Ukraine War is Part of the USSR’s Ongoing Collapse

Future historians will likely describe Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the most consequential moment, if not the final moment, of the Soviet Union’s collapse. When the war in Ukraine will end is unknown, but it will likely mark the dissolution of the Russian Federation (the legal successor of the Soviet Union) as it is known today. Russia has undeniably suffered a major blow to its economy, devastation to its military capability, and degradation of its influence in regions where it once had clout. The borders of the Russian Federation will likely not look the same on a map in 10 or 20 years as they do now. As the final collapse of the Soviet Union plays out and as the Russian Federation faces the possibility of dissolving, policymakers need to start planning for the new geopolitical reality on the Eurasian landmass.

3. Policymakers Need to Learn Lessons from the 1990s

As policymakers plan for this new geopolitical reality, they should learn the lessons from the 1990s when Western decision-makers naively hoped for democratic governance and economic reforms in Russia that never materialized. If Moscow’s behavior on the world stage since 1991 has shown anything, it is that Russia is unlikely to become a responsible global actor in the foreseeable future. Instead of focusing on the unachievable, American decision-makers should pursue pragmatic and realistic policies that advance the national interest of the US.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

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Analyzing Wagner [[link removed]]

In the May 10 edition of Hudson’s Ukraine Military Situation Report [[link removed]] newsletter, Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu [[link removed]] analyzed Prigozhin’s Wagner Private Military Company and described it as a Russian Hezbollah. The newsletter warned that the Prigozhin was making a power play in Moscow—specifically against the chief of staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, and the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. Be sure to subscribe to the weekly newsletter here [[link removed]].

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The Perils of a Post-Ukraine-War Russia [[link removed]]

In the Wall Street Journal [[link removed]] last December, Hudson Senior Fellows Peter Rough [[link removed]] and Luke Coffey [[link removed]] forecasted that Russia would face a range of possibilities, from revolution and insurgency to civil war, if the Ukraine war went poorly for Vladimir Putin. Their article explained how the US can prepare for such contingencies.

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Putin’s Pit Bull Is Making a Power Play [[link removed]]

As Putin’s grip on power weakens, a new generation of hard-liners waits in the wings. Hudson Senior Fellows Peter Rough [[link removed]] and Can Kasapoğlu [[link removed]] explained in Foreign Policy [[link removed]] last December why this should ring alarm bells for Western policymakers.

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