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An Iranian-made surface-to-surface missile is displayed next to the Azadi tower during a rally to mark the forty-forth anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution on February 11, 2023. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The Biden administration is on the verge of waiving economic sanctions on Iran, channeling many billions of dollars into Tehran’s coffers. The White House depicts this step as part of an informal deal to halt the advance of the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
In Tablet [[link removed]], Michael Doran [[link removed]], director of Hudson's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, paints a different picture. He argues that the “unstated goal” of Joe Biden and his team “is to constrain Israel, permanently.”
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Key Insights
1. There is no purely diplomatic means to convince Iran to give up its nuclear program.
Maximum pressure, combining economic coercion with a credible military threat, is the only rational way to deal with Tehran. But if President Biden admitted this, the rebellion among his supporters would be fierce and immediate. Progressives believe, as an article of blind faith, that a diplomatic path to better relations with Tehran exists. They resent Israel, its American supporters, and any policy designed to assist Jerusalem.
2. Biden’s policy appears to have a pro-Israel orientation, but it actually satisfies the progressive base and delivers Iran appeasement.
Biden and his team are proceeding along four tracks simultaneously. First, they express strong rhetorical support for Israel and its security. Second, they sponsor joint planning and exercises between the American and Israeli militaries. Third, the United States is sponsoring greater coordination between Israel’s military and the militaries of other regional powers, working toward an integrated missile defense. Fourth, Biden and his team are promoting normalization with Saudi Arabia.
These are laudable policies, but they will not persuade Iran to curtail or dismantle its nuclear program. Such persuasion requires a credible military threat.
3. The judicial reform controversy in Israel helps Biden achieve his twin goals of preventing an Israeli strike on Iran and preserving the Iran appeasement policies.
The Biden administration has associated itself with the reform’s opponents, who depict it as an attack on democracy by extreme religious and nationalist elements. By endorsing this critique, Biden disguises his fight with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Iran policy to look like a principled dispute over “democratic values,” in which Biden rather than Netanyahu seizes the high ground.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
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