It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

HUNTER BIDEN’S CASES, EXPLAINED
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

We are in a new age of investigation and scrutiny. Today, the president’s son, Hunter Biden, led the headlines after agreeing to a plea deal for tax and firearm offenses.

This is one of multiple investigations that have swirled around the 53-year-old. It has not always been easy to track. As we like to do, this seemed a good opportunity to lay out what we know. First, a brief rundown of the main investigations:
* Federal investigation. 2018-present. This is what is in the headlines today ([link removed]) .
* House Republican investigation. Ongoing ([link removed]) .
* Senate Republican investigation. Two separate reports were issued in 2020 ([link removed]) .

Next, let’s dive a little deeper on each.

The yearslong federal investigation

What happened today: Hunter Biden has pleaded guilty ([link removed].) to misdemeanor charges of failing to file taxes for two years in a plea deal that also involves a felony gun charge. That one count is for buying a firearm during a period when he was, per the Justice Department ([link removed]) , “an unlawful user of and addicted to a controlled substance.”

Maximum prison time: The law allows up to 10 years in prison for the gun charge and one year each for the tax offenses. (But keep reading.)

Actual prison time: Could be none. As part of the plea deal, the U.S. attorney has agreed not to prosecute the most serious charge — possessing a handgun, a Colt Cobra .38 Special, as a drug user. In exchange, according to The New York Times ([link removed]) , Hunter has agreed to remain drug-free for 24 months and never purchase a firearm again. For the tax charges, prosecutors will recommend probation. That means there may be no prison time involved. But a judge must approve that deal and could decide that Biden must serve time in prison, regardless.

Background: Hunter revealed in late 2020 ([link removed]) that he had been under federal investigation since 2018. At the time, multiple outlets reported that the probe was broad ([link removed]) , including Hunter’s business activities, tax filings and possible money laundering and foreign lobbying offenses.

As is standard procedure, little has been announced publicly about the investigation.

We know it has been led by David Weiss ([link removed]) , the U.S. attorney in Wilmington, Delaware. Weiss was nominated to that job in 2017 by then-President Donald Trump.

The probe reportedly began as a look into Hunter’s tax filings, but expanded to look into his sources of income and related conduct. The New York Times reported that investigators were questioning Hunter’s ties and possible actions on behalf of interests in Kazakhstan, China and Ukraine during the years his father was vice president of the United States.

Status and conclusions: Plea deals sometimes signal the end of an investigation. However, Weiss’ office wrote clearly in its release on the case Tuesday, “The investigation is ongoing.” Republicans in Congress have criticized the plea deal ([link removed]) , as they continue their own investigations, which include whether the federal investigation was itself legitimately handled ([link removed]) . (See below.)

The ongoing House Republican investigation

Background: The Republican-led House Oversight Committee is amid a probe into the Biden family. ([link removed]) Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., explained its nexus as the idea that the Bidens have a “pattern of peddling access to the highest levels of government to enrich themselves, often to the detriment of U.S. interests.”

In May, Comer released a memo ([link removed]) detailing a series of international payments that the Republican chairman said were routed to Biden family members via a third-party associate. That includes over $1 million that Comer asserted was laundered from a Chinese company in 2017.

House Republicans’ most recent focus has been on investigating if Hunter and/or Joe Biden were part of a bribery scheme. Hunter has denied such accusations of bribery in the past, telling The New Yorker ([link removed]) , “What would they be bribing me for? My dad wasn’t in office.” He told the outlet he gave away a diamond gifted to him by a Chinese energy baron.

This has become confusing, in part due to public statements by Comer ([link removed]) , but let’s try to clear it up here.

The committee, working with Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, has looked into allegations, including from an unnamed and undescribed whistleblower ([link removed]) , that the FBI has ignored important protocols in the Hunter investigation. The committee forced the FBI to share a document ([link removed]) detailing a tip alleging that Hunter took $5 million in bribes to secure a policy change from his father when Joe Biden was vice president.

While NBC has reported, citing a senior law enforcement official, that the allegation was not substantiated ([link removed]) , Comer and Republicans continue to see it as serious ([link removed]) .

Status: This is ongoing. Following news of Hunter’s guilty plea, House Republicans vowed, “We will not rest” ([link removed]) as they continue to look at the Biden family.

The 2020 Senate Republican investigation

Background: The Republican majority on the Senate Homeland Security and Finance Committees produced an 87-page report ([link removed]) in 2020 looking into allegations of corruption by the Biden family, centering around Hunter’s 2014 seat on the board of Ukrainian energy company Burisma ([link removed]) and connected relationships with Chinese entities.

Conclusions: The Republican report raised serious questions (see below), but did not find evidence of corruption by Hunter or any other Biden.

It concluded that Hunter was involved in a “vast financial network” connected to foreign nationals and that his work on the Burisma board “cast a shadow” over anti-corruption efforts. It raised questions about Biden family wealth, the role of Joe Biden and timing of Obama-Biden policy decisions, but Democrats — in their own report ([link removed]) — stressed they found no evidence of wrongdoing.

Something else to watch: the child support lawsuit

Hunter has petitioned a court ([link removed]) to lower the child support he pays for a 4-year-old daughter who lives in Arkansas. The case is notable because of the potential financial information it could disclose.

The judge has indicated she is not happy with Hunter’s redaction of past financial information. The next hearing in this case is set for July 10.

More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: The Southern Poverty Law Center recently added 12 conservative “parental rights” groups ([link removed]) to its list of extremist and anti-government organizations.
* One Big Question: Why has one of those groups, Moms for Liberty, become a driving force in the 2024 race? ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: A new report from the Washington Post says the DOJ resisted investigating Donald Trump’s role in Jan. 6 for over a year ([link removed]) .
* Perspectives: NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report discuss Joe Biden’s campaign strategy ([link removed]) .

GOP SUPPORT FOR TRUMP IS ON THE RISE
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Watch the segment in the player above.
By Laura Santhanam, @LauraSanthanam ([link removed])
Health Reporter & Coordinating Producer for Polling

Facing dozens of federal charges, former President Donald Trump is gaining support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents as he ramps up his 2024 campaign, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll ([link removed]) .

Seventy-six percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they hold a favorable view of Trump — up 8 percentage points since mid-February. At the same time, about three-quarters of Americans overall think the leading Republican candidate for president has done something either illegal or unethical.
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Image by Jenna Cohen/PBS NewsHour
During the same week that Trump pleaded not guilty to felony charges tied to his possession of classified documents, a majority of Americans — 56 percent — say the twice-impeached and twice-indicted former president should drop out of the 2024 race for the White House. That includes nearly all Democrats and most independents. Meanwhile, 43 percent of Americans overall say Trump should continue his campaign, including almost all Republicans.

Looking at this latest snapshot of public opinion, a majority of independents are still siding with Democrats against Trump, said Lara Brown, a political scientist who directs the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University. But a lot can change between now and the primaries, which are several months away, she said.

“You can’t read this as what is today will be tomorrow,” Brown said.


#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kyle Midura, @KyleMidura ([link removed])
Politics Producer

With a 50-50 party split in the U.S. Senate, Democrats hold the majority because they have Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote.

In just more than two years in the role, Harris’ has already broken 29 ties, putting her alongside John Adams for the second most in U.S. history.

Last week, Harris had the potential to make history to tie for No. 1, but a smattering of GOP absences negated the need for her to cast any decisive yays or nays.

Our question: Which vice president holds the record for most tie-breaking votes in U.S. Senate history? How many more does Harris need to pass him?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Which U.S. president created the government’s system of document classification with an executive order?

The answer: Harry Truman ([link removed].) . His 1951 executive order created the categories of Top Secret, Secret and Confidential, as well as the confines of the modern classification system.

Congratulations to our winners: Kathy Jensen and Paul Goss!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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