Taiwanese military personnel drive a CM-25 armored vehicle across the street during the Han Kuang military exercise which simulates China's People's Liberation Army invading the island on July 27, 2022, in New Taipei City, Taiwan. (Annabelle Chih via Getty Images)

Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Beijing for the first high level talks between the United States and China since the spy balloon incident scuttled the Biden administration's previous attempt to thaw relations in February. 

Meanwhile, the US has recently begun contingency planning for a Taiwan evacuation. In The Messenger, read Hudson Asia-Pacific Security Chair Patrick Cronin’s explanation of why Washington is right to plan for the worst—even as it prepares to be the best.

Key Insights

1. A Taiwan contingency is still the pacing scenario for US security efforts.

Removing Admiral Samuel Paparo, a tough warfighter, from the most crucial operational frontline post as the commander of the Pacific Fleet suggests that the administration wants to prepare the Navy for the long game, not the short one. The twin moves to prepare for a Taiwan contingency while removing one of the Navy’s most formidable commanders from the Pacific is not the contradiction it may appear to some. Rather, it suggests US officials understand Beijing’s strategy well.

2. Xi Jinping’s immediate interest is to curb support for Taiwan’s de facto independence.

Xi is hoping to get a reaction out of regional actors. For example, Xi would love for more countries to emulate French President Emmanuel Macron, who told reporters that Europe should avoid being pulled into a conflict over Taiwan. For its part, the United States can ill afford to be a neutral bystander. Taiwan faces a crucial election in January, and it is counting on the United States to live up to its commitment to ensure no unilateral change to the status quo through force or coercion. Yet an all-out military invasion of the island democracy is not Beijing’s preferred approach. 

3. A protracted Taiwan crisis that could escalate with little notice makes planning for a noncombatant evacuation operation (NEO) a prudent precaution.

China’s preparation for a possible invasion of Taiwan—even if only intended to signal Beijing’s political will and influence others—requires precautions. While militaries strengthen deterrence, they also need to update plans to evacuate civilians in an emergency. Planning for an NEO signals to America’s allies that it is serious about not shying away from a confrontation, even if it means moving civilians from the potential battlefield.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length. 

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