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“If businesses are seeing revenues collapsing - it suggests people are actually complying and not going into restaurants/shops/etc... so how much additional benefit does ‘locking down’ actually get you?” asked a special adviser to then-Chancellor Rishi Sunak just four days before the UK entered its first lockdown in March 2020.
We test just this theory in our landmark 220-page book ([link removed]) , published this week by the IEA. Steve H. Hanke from The Johns Hopkins University, Lars Jonung from Lund University and I find that the health benefits of Covid restrictions were minimal, particularly when juxtaposed against the profound enormous economic, social and political costs to society these measures entailed.
Our book created a big splash. It was featured on the front page of The Telegraph and across dozens of major outlets in the UK and across the world. The reception has been overwhelmingly positive. Many have come to realise that lockdowns were a colossal global policy failure that must never be repeated.
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Some of our critics, however, have decided to play the man, not the ball. Instead of responding to our robust methodology and findings, they have questioned whether it is appropriate for economists, rather than epidemiologists, to assess lockdowns' efficacy. We are well-suited to the task. Economists excel at harnessing empirical methods to gauge the effects of policy interventions, conducting thorough evaluations based on the corresponding costs and benefits.
The publication itself is just the beginning. We look forward to continuing our work with the IEA to ventilate our factual findings and important conclusions concerning pandemic policies. As the UK’s Covid-19 inquiry picks up its pace, there will be no more important question than whether lockdowns were necessary. After all, as the famous saying goes, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Jonas Herby
Special Advisor, Centre for Political Studies (CEPOS)
Co-author, Did Lockdowns Work? The Verdict on Covid Restrictions
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** Did Lockdowns Work?:
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** The verdict on Covid restrictions
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This week, the IEA published research analysing the impacts of Covid-19 restrictions.
* The book uses a meta-analysis to determine the effects of measures such as lockdowns and social distancing on Covid-19 mortality.
* They find that lockdowns reduced mortality by only 3.2 per cent compared to less strict lockdown policies adopted by the likes of Sweden.
* This means lockdowns prevented 1,700 deaths in England and Wales, 6,000 deaths across Europe, and 4,000 deaths in the United States.
* These results pale in comparison to the Imperial College London’s March 2020 modelling, which predicted that lockdowns would save over 400,000 lives in the United Kingdom and over 2 million lives in the United States.
* The book created quite a stir. It has been covered by dozens of publications, discussed extensively on social media and reached millions of people across the world.
It was not only on the front page of The Daily Telegraph ([link removed]) but also had a double-page spread. It was widely covered in the UK from the The Times ([link removed]) , The Daily Mail ([link removed]) , The Independent ([link removed]) , The Guardian ([link removed]) , and The New Statesman ([link removed]) . It also recieved coverage in the United States ([link removed]) , Canada
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Co-authors Jonas Herby and Lars Jonung wrote for The Daily Telegraph ([link removed]) about their findings.
The book was also widely discussed over the airwaves, with Steve on Sky News, Jonas on TalkTV ([link removed]) , and Lars on GB News ([link removed]) with Nigel Farage. Laura Ingraham also covered the book on Fox News ([link removed]) .
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Reem Ibrahim wrote about the book in CapX ([link removed]) , and IEA Senior Research Fellow Jamie Whyte wrote about it for The Critic.
Jonas and Lars also discussed the results on this week’s podcast ([link removed]) with IEA Director of Public Policy and Communications Matthew Lesh.
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Read the full book ([link removed])
IEA Latest.
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** Is it time for Britain to leave the WHO? ([link removed])
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Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon,
The Spectator
Time to say goodbye… The World Health Organisation has repeatedly propagated misleading research and cosied up to the world’s dictators. Is it time we bid the ailing institution farewell?
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** The madness of Labour’s oil and gas ban ([link removed])
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Energy Analyst, Andy Mayer, Spiked!
Cooking with(out) gas… Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has announced plans to ban all new drilling licences in the North Sea. Given the difficulty of replacing oil and gas with renewables, it looks like Sir Keir is set to remain in the dark.
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** There is nothing healthy about our paranoia over ultra-processed food ([link removed])
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Christopher Snowdon, The Daily Telegraph
Ultra-processed hysteria... The moral panic over so-called ‘ultra-processed food’ is taking the UK by storm, yet the jury is out on whether such products are as harmful as is widely claimed.
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** The weaponisation of hate ([link removed])
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Head of Cultural Affairs Marc Glendening, The Critic
Fighting for freedom... The public outcry over Kathleen Stock’s recent appearance at the Oxford Union has reminded us of the fragile state of free speech. Free speech is a pillar of liberalism and must be protected.
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** UBI: A pointless trial of a bad idea ([link removed])
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Senior Research Fellow Dr Jamie Whyte, CapX
Basic illogicality… Universal Basic Income is back in the news as a think tank prepares a UBI micro-trial. But since it cannot replicate everyone receiving the UBI — that would result in much higher taxes and many fewer people working — the results will be pretty meaningless.
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** The limits of Social Health Insurance: Part 1 ([link removed]) and Part 2 ([link removed])
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Head of Political Economy Kristian Niemietz, IEA Blog
Know your limits… Free-marketeers have long advocated replacing the NHS with a social health insurance model, but have we gotten ahead of ourselves and not considered its shortcomings?
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** Trade and Development in Africa ([link removed])
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Free Trade Fellow Alexander Hammond, Vinson Centre Podcast
Time to trade… Free trade is vital to unleashing economic prosperity in Africa and its barriers must be dismantled.
IEA Insider.
** IEA Book Club
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** IEA Book Club with Ross Clark ([link removed])
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Date: Tuesday, 13 June
Time: 17:30 – 19:30
Location: 2 Lord North Street, SW1P 3LB
RSVP: There are limited spaces available for non-members, please click here to apply by email (mailto:
[email protected]?subject=IEA%20Book%20Club%20with%20Ross%20Clark&body=Hello%2C%20I%20would%20like%20to%20attend%20the%20IEA%20Book%20Club%20with%20Ross%20Clark%20on%20Tuesday%2C%2013%20June%20at%205.30pm.%20Could%20you%20please%20reserve%20me%20a%20space%3F) .
The IEA Book Club will host journalist Ross Clark on his latest book, 'Not Zero: How an Irrational Target Will Impoverish You, Help China (and Won’t Even Save the Planet)'. IEA Energy Analyst Andy Mayer will chair the event.
There are limited spaces available for non-members, please apply by emailing (mailto:
[email protected]?subject=null&body=null) or find out more about joining the IEA Book Club ([link removed]) .
** The Hong Konger screening and panel discussion
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Co-hosted by the IEA and Catholic Social Thought Project, St Mary’s University
Date: Tuesday, 6 July
Time: 18:00 – 21:00
Location: 2 Lord North Street, SW1P 3LB
RSVP: There are limited spaces available for this event, please email
[email protected] to apply (mailto:
[email protected]?subject=null&body=null) .
The film is a moving documentary about Jimmy Lai, the entrepreneur, newspaper publisher, Nobel Peace Prize nominee and Catholic convert and who, having escaped to Hong Kong as a child, has been imprisoned by the Chinese government for his pro-democracy activism.
The panel will include:
* Lord Kamall (Chair), Professor at St. Mary’s University & IEA Academic Fellow
* Benedict Rogers, human rights activist
* Fr. Robert Sirico, President emeritus of the Acton Institute and alumnus of St. Mary’s University
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