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Leverage Before Growth

China’s Technology Strategy

June 10, 2023

According to Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors, “technology is a central component” of Xi Jinping’s strategy for winning the long-term competition with the US. In a new report, Blumenthal and Scissors reveal how Xi views technology’s role in gaining strategic advantages and asymmetrically exploiting the US economic system, without competing “in wealth, prosperity, or even broad innovation.”

 

 

Leslie Ford explains how the Biden administration will covertly raise food stamp spending by about $200 billion over the next 10 years. This year’s farm bill, Ford says, is lawmakers’ best opportunity to roll back “President Biden’s unprecedented and expensive food-stamp hike.”

 

Have banking regulators learned the right lessons from the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and others? R. Glenn Hubbard warns they haven’t, especially when it comes to anticipating policy risks and weighing the consequences of too much deposit insurance.

 

Pentagon officials have long called China a “near-peer” competitor, but Mackenzie Eaglen contends the term no longer adequately captures China’s closeness to military parity with the US. “China’s continuous and rapid transformation of its military and strategic capabilities means Washington can safely retire ‘near-peer’ as an accurate classifier,” writes Eaglen.

 

Ruy Teixeira outlines five reasons Democrats can’t count on the youth vote to carry them to victory in future elections. While Democrats expect to win elections with overwhelming support from younger voters, as they did in 2022, Teixeira cautions that “demographics are not destiny” and “the boring, tedious, difficult task of persuasion is still the key to building electoral majorities.”

Financial Spillovers of Rising US Interest Rates

In a chapter of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, Steven B. Kamin, Carlos Arteta, and Franz Ulrich Ruch investigate the spillover effects of rising US interest rates on emerging markets and developing economies. Kamin, Arteta, and Ruch observe that US interest rate shocks in reaction to inflation or a changing Federal Reserve stance have negative consequences for these less-developed countries and can heighten their risks of financial distress. Rising US interest rates as a result of these shocks can depress these countries’ exports, restrict their capital inflows, and worsen their overall financial conditions. The coauthors find that emerging markets with greater economic vulnerabilities, such as those with current account deficits and weaker credit ratings, are more hurt by rising US interest rates. They outline several ways these effects could be mitigated through clearer communication and more responsive policies in the central banks of these emerging markets and developing economies.

 

 

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