Trump rallies in New Hampshire on eve of primary

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FEBRUARY 11, 2020: The New Hampshire Democratic and Republican presidential primaries take place Tuesday. Donald Trump held a campaign rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Monday.

_Share the latest from the campaign trail._

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**  POLL SPOTLIGHT

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Notable Quote of the Day ([link removed])

“Iowa, for all its problems counting its caucus results, also failed in its traditional role of winnowing the presidential field. For the first time since 2004, nobody dropped out after Iowa, sending the full field of Democratic candidates from that state on to New Hampshire. Now Granite State voters will be left with the responsibility of informing candidates which of them won’t go on — if only they’ll listen.”

– Reid J. Epstein and Adriana Ramic, _The New York Times_

 
** NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY
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NEW HAMPSHIRE ([link removed]) celebrates its centennial anniversary of holding the first-in-the-nation presidential primary this year. Fifty Democratic and Republican candidates are on the ballot in the primary election on Tuesday. In the Democratic primary, 24 pledged delegates are at stake. On the Republican side, 22 delegates are available.

Three small towns ([link removed]) continued the tradition of opening polls at midnight on Tuesday. The earliest of early returns: Michael Bloomberg won Dixville Notch with two write-in votes, and Amy Klobuchar won Hart’s Location with six votes and Millsfield with two votes.

 
** DEMOCRATS
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MICHAEL BENNET ([link removed]) is campaigning across New Hampshire ([link removed]) on Tuesday and will hold his election night watch party in Concord. “It’s very important, very important to do well in New Hampshire. It’s vital for me,” Bennet said ([link removed]) .

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New Hampshire Senate President Donna Soucy endorsed ([link removed]) JOE BIDEN ([link removed]) on Monday. Biden is holding his primary night event in Nashua, New Hampshire ([link removed]) .

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On Monday, the MICHAEL BLOOMBERG ([link removed]) campaign held a conference call with hundreds of tech leaders ([link removed]) seeking referrals for individuals with expertise in data science, online marketing, and analytics.

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PETE BUTTIGIEG ([link removed]) is hosting a primary night rally at Nashua Community College in New Hampshire ([link removed]) .

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TULSI GABBARD ([link removed]) is holding an election night party in Manchester, New Hampshire ([link removed]) , on Tuesday.

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AMY KLOBUCHAR ([link removed]) is attending New Hampshire GOTV events ([link removed]) in Concord, Portsmouth, and Nashua on Tuesday.

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DEVAL PATRICK ([link removed]) is campaigning in Dover and Manchester, New Hampshire ([link removed]) , on Tuesday.

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BERNIE SANDERS ([link removed]) is holding an election night rally in Manchester, New Hampshire ([link removed]) , on Tuesday.

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TOM STEYER ([link removed]) is campaigning in Nevada ([link removed]) with an event in Gardnerville and town hall in Reno on Tuesday.

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ELIZABETH WARREN ([link removed]) is holding her election night event in Manchester, New Hampshire ([link removed]) , on Tuesday.

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ANDREW YANG ([link removed]) is campaigning across New Hampshire ([link removed]) on Tuesday and will hold an election night rally in Manchester.

 
** REPUBLICANS
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DONALD TRUMP ([link removed]) held a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire ([link removed]) , on Monday night. He called on independents to vote in the Democratic primary for the weakest candidate.

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BILL WELD ([link removed]) is hosting a primary night party in Manchester, New Hampshire ([link removed]) , on Tuesday.

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** SPECIAL GUEST ANALYSIS
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_Jim Ellis is a 35-year political veteran who now analyzes election data for major corporations, associations, and legislative advocacy firms. He is president of EllisInsight, LLC. We invited him to share analysis on the state of Texas in the 2020 election._

While Hawkeye State voters attended meetings in 1,765 precincts and submitted their first- and second-round ballots as instructed, the Iowa Democratic Party (IDP) organizers experienced a major reporting system breakdown that delayed counting and verification for a period of days. At the end of the week, the IDP was able to release vote totals even though Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez was publicly calling for them to recount every ballot because of what he claimed were potential tabulation errors.

Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is being credited with the win because he scored a razor-thin 26.2 to 26.1% edge in State Delegate Equivalents even though Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) recorded 6,103 more votes than Buttigieg on the first ballot and 2,568 more on the second, or vote alignment, round. The quirk in the rules—which, much like the Electoral College, weighs larger population areas with a greater delegate composition—allowed the media to crown Buttigieg the winner, but it is Sanders who actually attracted the greater number of votes.  

In the Iowa system, the caucus attendees vote for president, but in doing so they elect delegates to the Iowa Democratic Convention, which will be held June 13. At that time, the elected delegates will assign the state’s 41 Democratic National Convention delegates. The initial projection suggests that Buttigieg will receive 14 national delegates, Sanders 12, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) 8, former Vice President Joe Biden 6, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) one.

What we do know is that the five candidates advancing into New Hampshire with Iowa delegates are very much alive to compete for the nomination. On the outside, former New York City Michael Bloomberg appears as the sixth candidate with the financial ability to compete to the end, but it’s unclear as to whether he can amass anything close to a majority within the state delegate counts.

Perhaps the luckiest candidate in the Iowa field is Mr. Biden. His fourth-place finish with half the votes Sanders garnered was highly disappointing and well below expectations.  With the Iowa vote now lacking credibility, however, he can escape, to a degree, from what would otherwise have been a potentially major momentum setback. A rebound in New Hampshire and then Nevada is now a must for his campaign.

The Iowa result, after more than a year of campaigning for these candidates, is anticlimactic and now endangers the state from continuing to have a prominent nomination position in future elections. Tonight's New Hampshire primary could produce an equally tight finish. Considering the Iowa debacle, it looks like the campaign will now begin in earnest in the Granite State.

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** WHAT WE’RE READING
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FiveThirtyEight: What Our Forecast Says About The New Hampshire Primary At The District Level ([link removed])

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The New York Times: What’s at Stake in the New Hampshire Primary ([link removed])

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Reuters: Paid social media influencers dip toes in U.S. 2020 election ([link removed])

FLASHBACK: FEBRUARY 11, 2016

The Congressional Black Caucus PAC endorsed ([link removed]) Hillary Clinton.
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