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In this mailing:
* Con Coughlin: Biden Is Not Serious about Ukraine Defeating Russia
* Amir Taheri: Iran: Heroic Flexibility Returns


** Biden Is Not Serious about Ukraine Defeating Russia ([link removed])
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by Con Coughlin • June 4, 2023 at 5:00 am
* [G]iven the unconscionable delays that have affected other commitments by the Biden administration to provide Kyiv with advanced weapons, concerns remain about whether the aircraft will actually arrive in time to make a material difference to Ukraine's war effort.
* Procrastination and equivocation have been the key watchwords of Biden's response to the Ukraine crisis, with the supposed leader of the free world seemingly incapable of making a decision about how best to provide the Ukrainians with the weaponry they require to defeat their Russian adversaries.
* Making the announcement at the recent G7 summit in Japan, US National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden "informed his G7 counterparts" of the decision during the summit, and that the US would also supervise training of Ukrainian pilots.
* At the same time, the administration moved swiftly to dampen expectations that the aircraft would be delivered anytime soon and that, when they did materialise, it was unlikely to make a significant difference to Ukraine's war efforts -- not exactly the ringing endorsement of support the Ukrainians were expecting.
* The US, while willing to provide training and support, had indicated it does not want to send American warplanes to Ukraine, mainly because of the Biden administration's aversion to upsetting Russian President Vladimir Putin.
* All of which suggests that, rather than providing a tangible uplift to Ukraine's war-fighting capabilities, Biden's announcement about sending F-16s to Kyiv could prove to be little more than an empty gesture, one that raises serious doubts about whether the Biden administration really has any genuine interest in Ukraine winning this bloody war.

Given the unconscionable delays that have affected other commitments by the Biden administration to provide Kyiv with advanced weapons, concerns remain about whether the aircraft will actually arrive in time to make a material difference to Ukraine's war effort. Pictured: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Joe Biden meet during the G7 Leaders' Summit in Hiroshima, Japan on May 21, 2023. (Photo by Brendan Smialowsky/AFP via Getty Images)

It has required a major U-turn on the part of President Joe Biden to finally give his approval for F-16 warplanes to be supplied to Ukraine. Even so, given the unconscionable delays that have affected other commitments by the Biden administration to provide Kyiv with advanced weapons, concerns remain about whether the aircraft will actually arrive in time to make a material difference to Ukraine's war effort.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his senior military advisors have been appealing to their Western allies for months to be given access to Western warplanes as they seek to inflict a decisive victory against their Russian foes.

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** Iran: Heroic Flexibility Returns ([link removed])
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by Amir Taheri • June 4, 2023 at 4:00 am
* ["Supreme Guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] has decided to perform what he calls "heroic flexibility" in foreign policy in the hope of focusing on a slow but steady suppression of dissent at home. In a speech last week, he said he was applying the tactic of "taqiyeh" (dissimulation), a theological concept, to diplomacy.... [H]e said that when a revolution hits a tough rock on its path, it need not break its head against it; the wisest course would be to try and go around it.
* It is against that background that Tehran now hails its recent "normalization" with Saudi Arabia, followed by "dispersing the clouds" in relations with the United Arab Emirates, as "a major step towards Islamic solidarity."
* This is to be followed by "normalization" with Egypt, partly thanks to mediation by Sultan Haitham bin Tarik of Oman.
* More importantly, perhaps, Tehran has quietly "rescheduled" its annual "A World Without America" seminar and the annual "Holocaust as a Hoax" cartoon exhibition.
* This was in contrast with previous sermons in which he had urged his diplomats to always raise the banner of revolution and emphasize Iran's role as the leader of a new power bloc seeking to establish a new world order in alliance with Russia and China.
* The big enchilada, of course, is whether the "Supreme Guide" will prove flexible enough to accept a new version of the "nuclear deal" (JCPOA) reached with President Barack Obama, which President Donald Trump dumped, and his successor President Joe Biden is determined to bring out of the wastepaper basket. Biden seems determined to get a deal before next year's presidential election to claim success in bringing Iran into the fold where Trump had failed.

Iran's "Supreme Guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has decided to perform what he calls "heroic flexibility" in foreign policy in the hope of focusing on a slow but steady suppression of dissent at home. Recently, Iranian and Afghan border guards engaged in gun-battles. Both sides, however, have shown no interest in starting a war at a time that they both face challenges to their legitimacy. Khamenei's recently adopted posture of moderation is mirrored by that of his Afghan counterpart. Pictured: A Taliban gunman stands guard at the entrance gate of Afghan-Iran border crossing bridge in Zaranj, on February 18, 2022. (Photo by Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images)

"Easy does it!" These days in Tehran the phrase seems to have become the guideline for a ruling elite that has realized it can no longer go about its shenanigans at no cost.

Almost six months of on-and-off protests virtually everywhere have persuaded "Supreme Guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that he cannot put down a popular revolt at home while pursuing adventurous policies abroad. As a result, he has decided to perform what he calls "heroic flexibility" in foreign policy, in the hope of focusing on a slow but steady suppression of dissent at home. In a speech last week, he said he was applying the tactic of "taqiyeh" (dissimulation), a theological concept, to diplomacy. Echoing Lenin's famous phrase "One step backwards, two steps forward," he said that when a revolution hits a tough rock on its path, it need not break its head against it; the wisest course would be to try and go around it.

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