From Ezra Levin, Indivisible <[email protected]>
Subject What happened and what we should learn from it
Date June 3, 2023 2:12 PM
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Indivisibles,

There’s no better time for my monthly newsletter than immediately after
the highest-stakes congressional fight of the year. At Indivisible, we’re
always learning and growing, so for this newsletter, I want to do a quick
postmortem and take in some of your thoughts about what did or didn’t work
during this MAGA Default Crisis fight. 

Before I get there though, one follow-up from last month’s survey question
about how to make this newsletter work better for you: The most requested
change (and it wasn’t close) was the addition of a short, simple summary.
So I’ll bow to public will and start with the three main takeaways: 

 1. We made it through alive, but not unscathed. We took some hits, but we
survived the hostage negotiation. It wasn’t pretty, but the national
economy did not implode, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid were
not touched, and there were no teacher cuts, veterans cuts, or big new
tax cuts for rich GOP donors. It wasn’t a clean debt ceiling bill
though -- the GOP, Joe Manchin, and Kyrsten Sinema supported some bad
concessions.
 2. Inside-outside organizing was essential. Outside grassroots pressure
opened up space for our side to play hardball in negotiations.
McCarthy repeatedly conceded to pressure to abandon his demands, and
the result was that our side largely -- though not entirely -- won the
fight. I cannot overemphasize the critical role of active Indivisible
leaders working hand-in-glove with their organizers on our national
campaigns teams. We heard it directly from our allies in the White
House and Congress -- outside pressure made the difference. 
 3. Calling bluffs and fighting back works. As we head into the coming
legislative fights of the year, let’s take the right lessons from this
fight. Fighting back worked. Calling bluffs worked. Bucking up our
allies, and focusing public pressure on the most vulnerable members of
the GOP worked. 

For those who want more details or more baby pics (the second-most common
request!), read on.

How we fought this fight

Since we beat the odds in the 2022 midterms, I’ve been clear on what our
goals are for the next two years: I want to see Indivisible hold down the
harm done by the MAGA House, hold those MAGA members accountable, and
retake power so we can reform the filibuster, codify Roe, and pass
democracy reform. That’s what gets me up each morning.

This MAGA default fight was about harm mitigation and accountability --
and that’s what we did. Specifically, we focused on three strategies:

 1. Weaponize MAGA extremism against the GOP. 
 2. Keep Democrats unified to fight back.
 3. Limit the harm done from concessions. 

I’d argue that the Indivisible movement did a fantastic job on all three
fronts. Let’s review.

✔️ Weaponize MAGA extremism against the GOP? Check. We had
constituent-led, media-attention-attracting events in almost all of the
vulnerable GOP districts. Indivisible leaders from California to Arizona
to New York showed up in force to apply public pressure to these GOP
members. During our week of action we saw 176 events, hundreds of letters
to the editor, and uncountable numbers of calls to congressional offices,
disproportionately in these districts. If you look around at who was
getting press over the last month in local papers around the country, it
was local Indivisible leaders. We showed up. Loudly. And Congress was
forced to listen.

✔️ Keep Dems unified? Check. Our big fear here was that some group of
conservative Dems -- like those in Problem Causers Caucus -- would link
arms with Republicans in order to pressure Biden to accept more GOP
demands. Indivisible leaders in dozens of blue and purple districts held
events cheering on our Dem allies and encouraging them to fight back.
While bad actors like Manchin snuck some bad stuff into the final
agreement (most egregiously, a terrible new pipeline project), there was
no coordinated Dem insurgency. Every single Dem joined the discharge
petition to put pressure on vulnerable Republicans and take away leverage
from McCarthy. We were largely unified in this fight, which provided
maximum leverage to Biden in the negotiation. 

✔️ Limit harm from concessions? Check. Don’t get me wrong, there’s some
bad stuff in this bill. This isn’t a “clean” debt ceiling bill. It
includes a dirty deal for a dirty pipeline (championed by Manchin), modest
but cruel cuts to welfare, a two-year cap on spending for essential
popular programs. There’s a reason many of our friends in the House
Progressive Caucus voted against it, along with some of our Senate heroes
like Elizabeth Warren (though not a single one of them threatened default
like the MAGAs). 

❌ Eliminate the harm? Unfortunately, no. But mitigate we did. Remember
where we started at the beginning of the year. First, Republicans wanted
to cut Social Security and Medicare. We protested them and Biden boxed
them in at the State of the Union. They dropped the demand. Then the
Republicans wanted to cut Medicaid for kids with disabilities and
eliminate 100,000 teachers' jobs, among other ridiculous cuts. We
protested them and Biden flatly said no. They dropped those demands too.
In the end, they extracted some modest concessions -- more than
face-saving but not much more. 

Some historical context for the power of inside-outside organizing

I was a House staffer for a progressive Member of Congress when
Republicans plotted the last debt ceiling hostage negotiation in 2011.
Similarly at that time, we had the Presidency and the Senate, but not the
House. But we got fleeced. Massive cuts. A decade-long commitment to
austerity that slowed the recovery from the Great Recession. While the
deal has largely been forgotten, it is arguably the greatest legislative
blunder of the Obama era. The proto-MAGAs at the time -- known then as the
Tea Party -- were triumphant. This time around, the MAGAs are incensed --
threatening mutiny within the GOP! They lost and they know it.

Why? Why was 2023 different from 2011?

Back then we didn’t have a massive movement of people applying pressure
and getting local attention. There wasn’t a sophisticated, organized force
on the ground that weaponized the extremism of the Tea Party against the
rest of the GOP. There were no local events or waves of constituent-led,
earned media protesting GOP recklessness. 

Indivisible didn’t exist in 2011. But in 2023, local Indivisible groups
held events all across the country, including in frontliner Dem and
vulnerable Republican districts during the climactic moment of this fight.
Every week, in our meetings with the White House and congressional
leadership, we gave readouts of what local Indivisible groups were doing
in rural California, in upstate New York, in the suburbs of Phoenix.
Repeatedly we heard the same thing -- as Vice President Harris said,
“[ [link removed] ]Organize, activate our communities and remind folks of what's at
stake.” Time and time again we heard from our allies at the White House
and in congressional leadership: Get your people out there and make some
noise. That’s what Indivisible did.

[2]a revolving gif of group photos from actions by Indivisible Bucks
County, Indivisible Oil Region Risinng, Indivisible GA-10, and Indivisible
Binghamton

As a movement, we started preparing for the coming crisis on the national
default months ago -- long before it was dominating the headlines. Back in
March, I was talking to you all about how this was “The worst thing MAGAs
might do that nobody’s talking about.” We knew we couldn’t wait for the
press to pay attention -- because by then it’d be too late. 

We had to organize.

Indivisible worked with national partners on message testing and held
trainings for local leaders to make the most impactful arguments to their
neighbors. We wrote up explainers (If you google “discharge petition,”
[ [link removed] ]Indivisible’s own resource is the first to come up after the official
House of Representatives site). We worked with our organizers to
disseminate our messaging, strategies, and tactics to Indivisible leaders
in the turf. We sent swag and signs and other support all around the
country to support local events.

And Indivisibles SHOWED UP IN FORCE. 176 local events all over the
country. Of the 18 Biden-won districts represented by a Republican, local
Indivisible groups orchestrated local, media-earning events in 14 of them.
I can’t list all the press we got, but here’s a smattering: 

* Rep. Fitzpatrick (PA-01): [ [link removed] ]Rallies Across Bucks To Protest "National
MAGA Default Crisis" 
* Rep: Lawler (NY-17): [ [link removed] ]Veterans rally against potential VA funding
cuts amid debt ceiling negotiations
* Rep. Williams (NY-22): [ [link removed] ]Residents protest against Williams' vote on
Limit, Save, Grow Act
* Rep. Molinaro (NY-19): [ [link removed] ]Protestors gather in front of Molinaro’s
office over debt-ceiling concerns

[8]A gif showing the headlines noted above and an additional headline from
Dakota News Now: Debt ceiling protests call for South Dakota delegation to
take action

For Indivisible, this wasn’t a superficial effort or just about flashy
spectacle. When we show up to a fight, it’s not about sending an email,
posting a tweet, or pushing a petition. We show up in person, on the
ground, everywhere. 176 events. Dozens of local press hits. Countless
letters to the editor. Untold number of calls into Congress -- to
Democrats to encourage them to keep up the fight; and to Republicans to
weaken their resolve. 

“Organize, activate our communities and remind folks of what's at stake,”
as the Vice President encouraged. We did. And it worked.

A note on bragging

Am I bragging? Sure, maybe, yeah. There are few things I love more than
bragging about the Indivisible leaders around the country that are doing
the real, hard work of fighting MAGA and saving democracy. But this isn’t
just for show. And you’ll note that there’s no fundraising request in this
email. I’m actually bragging for…strategic reasons -- and I encourage you
to do the same. 

For those of us engaged in the long, hard slog of fighting for our
democracy, it can be easy to get overwhelmed with anger at the cruel and
grotesque displays from the MAGAs. It’s tempting to see Manchin’s
successful demands for a dirty pipeline and throw up our hands in disgust.
It’s reasonable to look at concessions -- mitigated as they are -- and
decide the whole system is just rotten to the core. But it’s dangerous to
believe that nothing we do can make a difference -- that absolves us from
having to do anything. MAGA is the enemy -- but the most pernicious threat
we face is dejection, disillusionment, and despair. 

That’s why when we have an impact, we CELEBRATE our power. Acknowledging,
celebrating, and, yes, bragging about that impact drives us towards
continued impact in the future. And I can tell you right now: The MAGAs
are gearing up for another fight this fall over the September 30th
government funding deadline. They’ll threaten a government shutdown.
They’ll try to extract more cruel and painful cuts. And unless there is an
organized, countervailing grassroots movement pushing back, MAGA will get
its way.

I am not willing to accept that. So I embrace our partial victory this
time around, warts and all. I am proud of this slight disappointment of a
legislative compromise. I am energized by our success in sidelining the
worst of MAGA. “It could have been worse!” I yell proudly -- because it
could have been, and would have been without us. Better is better, and we
made it better.

In a political world that wants to ignore you, diminish you, convince you
that you’re powerless, bragging about what you’ve accomplished is one the
most effective, rebellious, forward-looking acts of civic engagement in
your democratic arsenal. 

Damn right I’m bragging. We should all be bragging.

Tell me something good (or bad)

Earlier this week, I did a small focus group with Indivisible leaders who
participated in the MAGA Default Crisis week of action. These leaders were
from all over -- Texas, Maine, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois, and
Maryland. I wanted to talk to them about what worked and didn’t work from
their point of view. Again, we’re always trying to learn, grow, and
improve here.

For [ [link removed] ]this month’s one-click survey, I want to pose the same question to
you. I’ll give some options below, but if you click through you can also
provide additional thoughts. I go through and read these every month,
which is how we get to useful changes like the summary at the top of this
email! 

So with that in mind, among the resources and support Indivisible national
provided in past few months, which did you find most helpful in keeping
you informed and engaged during this MAGA Default Crisis fight?

[ [link removed] ]Data-backed messaging guidance

[ [link removed] ]Trainings/webinars/virtual
events on the default fight

[ [link removed] ]Signs, swag, and other direct
support for local actions

[ [link removed] ]Direct support from local
organizers on events, messaging,
trainings

[ [link removed] ]Something Else

I really do welcome any and all feedback here -- so please do share the
good, bad, and ugly. I want Indivisible national to be as helpful as
possible during these big national campaigns -- and the only way we
improve is if you share your feedback. So thanks for sharing it!

Looking forward to reading your input and building together for the next
fight. We’re winning, and together we will win. 

In solidarity,
Ezra

Ezra Levin

[15]Indivisble Co-Executive Director

Pronouns: He/him

PS: And as always, it’s baby picture time. Some more bragging: It’s a
somewhat idyllic time in the Levin-Greenberg household. Lila just turned
10 weeks old this month, and she has really been putting in the tummy time
work -- the doctor says she has the neck strength of a 4-month-old. And
meanwhile, Zeke’s obsession with dinosaurs knows no bounds -- at this
point he knows the names of approximately 50 different dinosaurs and will
happily tutor you on the subtle differences between the T. Rex,
Carnotaurus, and Albertosaurus, or correct your pronunciation of
Ankylosaurus.

[16]A photo of little Zeke holding the feet of baby Lila, who is lying in
a bassinet and looking directly at the camera

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