Daily News Brief

June 1, 2023

Top of the Agenda

French President Emmanuel Macron called for the first time for a clear pathway for Ukraine to join (FT) the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at a security forum yesterday in Norway. Ukraine has long sought entry to both the military alliance and the European Union (EU). European leaders are expected to show solidarity (AP) with Ukraine and fellow EU applicant Moldova at a one-day summit today in Moldova’s capital, Chișinău. 

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock diverged from Macron’s position (Bloomberg), telling reporters that “we cannot talk about new membership in the middle of the war.” Acknowledging the difficulty to reach a consensus on NATO membership for Ukraine, Macron also suggested providing Ukraine with security guarantees that are similar to the ones the United States provides Israel.  

Analysis

“The United States and its allies and partners need to think creatively about how to guarantee Ukraine’s security beyond the paper promises that have been made in the past and trashed by Moscow, and beyond proposals to turn Ukraine into a ‘porcupine’ by arming it to the teeth,” Georgetown University’s Lise Morjé Howard and the Brookings Institution’s Michael O’Hanlon write for Foreign Affairs.

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for clear signals in support of his country’s membership at [a July NATO] summit,” Bloomberg’s Natalia Drozdiak writes. “But opinions differ about how specific allies should be.”

Pacific Rim

The first deal of the agreement covers customs and border procedures (Reuters), regulatory practices, and small business. China has denounced the bilateral trade talks, which are expected to strengthen economic ties between the United States and Taiwan.

U.S./Japan/Philippines: The three countries began their first-ever joint naval drills (EFE) in the South China Sea today. The drills will run until June 7 and are aimed at strengthening collaboration in rescue operations and law enforcement, a spokesperson for the Philippine Coast Guard said.

South and Central Asia

The country’s finance minister said the tax increases will help boost spending (Bloomberg) on issues such as poverty alleviation and economic development. Doing so will keep Bangladesh within the grounds of a $4.7 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund. 

India: Indians have flocked toward stores (NYT) that accept the country’s largest currency note of 2,000 rupees (roughly $24) as the government begins to phase out the bill ahead of a fall deadline. A similar and sudden retirement of India’s largest currency bills in 2016 sparked public outrage.

Middle East and North Africa

The force includes nearly forty countries (WSJ) working to counter Iranian attacks on commercial sea traffic. A day before the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its withdrawal, the Wall Street Journal reported that it had been dissatisfied with the force’s recent efforts to deter Iran.

Iran: Tehran has reinstalled monitoring equipment (Bloomberg) and increased cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency at its nuclear sites while also boosting its stockpiles of uranium enriched near weapons-grade, the UN nuclear watchdog reported. 

For Foreign Affairs, Ali Vaez and Vali Nasr write that a regional agreement on Iran’s nuclear activities could succeed after an attempt to resurrect the 2015 Iran deal failed.

Sub-Saharan Africa

The foreign ministers of Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa, as well as a deputy minister from China, a collection of nations known as BRICS, meet in Cape Town today (Reuters) as part of a prelude to an August summit in Johannesburg. They are expected to discuss the bloc’s development bank, response to Western sanctions on Russia, and a possible expansion of the group.

Nigeria: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s unexpected announcement that he would remove fuel subsidies earlier than planned sparked a fuel crisis (FT) resulting in long lines at gas stations across the country.

For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR expert Ebenezer Obadare discusses how Tinubu is approaching Nigeria’s challenges.

Europe

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) barred reporters from Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal from attending its meeting this weekend. No official reason was given, but the Financial Times reported that it was instigated by Saudi Arabia, which has resisted U.S. calls to lower oil prices.

This Backgrounder looks at OPEC’s role in a changing world.

Americas

A provisional measure establishing the structure of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s cabinet passed after the lower house added environmental cuts (Bloomberg) that will curb Lula’s green agenda. Conservative parties and an agribusiness caucus in Brazil’s congress had put plans in motion to shutter fourteen of the government’s thirty-seven ministries if the measure did not pass.

Argentina: The country will no longer require a prescription (Reuters) for women to buy emergency contraception, the health ministry announced yesterday.

United States

Lawmakers approved the bill (AP) to suspend the debt ceiling in exchange for a series of budget cuts and Republican policy priorities in a 314-117 vote last night. The bill will now move on to the Senate. 

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