From Robert Kuttner, The American Prospect <[email protected]>
Subject Kuttner on TAP: Centrist Democrats and Biden’s Debt Deal
Date May 26, 2023 7:03 PM
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**MAY 26, 2023**

Kuttner on TAP

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**** Centrist Democrats and Biden's Debt Deal

Biden's debt negotiations are now caught between two contradictory
strategies. Corporate Democrats add to the problem.

In the endgame of debt talks, one strategic school of thought holds that
Biden needs to look presidential in keeping America from defaulting,
even to the point of sacrificing some of his own program. The other
holds that Biden's program is a superb achievement that needs to be
defended and built upon; and that Biden's differences with
Republicans, whose own programs are extreme and unpopular, must not be
blurred.

Biden is now trying to have it both ways. As my colleague David Dayen
has reported
<[link removed]>, he
is perilously close to a deal that would sacrifice domestic spending,
giving House Speaker Kevin McCarthy bragging rights and splitting
Biden's own party. Recent leaks show a deal keeping nondefense
spending relatively flat for the next two years-though with inflation
that's a real cut. The military budget would go up.

Here is where the insidious role of centrist Democrats comes in. Third
Way types going back to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are to blame for
making budget discipline a holy grail that now contours the
Biden-McCarthy negotiations. Many are crowing about Biden's
accomplishments while adding to the pressure on Biden to wreck them.

An interesting case in point is Simon Rosenberg, long a leading DLC
figure who is now a major supporter of the very Biden programs that
would have appalled the Democratic Leadership Council. Rosenberg worked
in the Clinton White House, then founded the New Democrat Network in
1996 with Sens. Joe Lieberman and John Breaux to raise corporate money
for Democrats.

But with the New Democrat brand fatally tarnished, Rosenberg recently
folded the organization and repositioned himself. Long a
behind-the-scenes operative, he became famous in 2022 as one of the few
pundits who challenged the conventional wisdom and predicted that the
midterm would not be the widely forecast blowout. He was attacked in
Politico, and when he turned out to be right about 2022, major
commentators treated Rosenberg as seer
<[link removed]>.

(As a point of personal pride, I should add that I also challenged the
conventional assumptions about 2022, both in a book, Going Big
<[link removed]>, and
in several

**Prospect** pieces that predicted an even House and a Democratic
Senate. But I was not astute enough to get myself attacked in Politico.)

Rosenberg took advantage of his new acclaim to rebrand himself as an
extreme optimist about Democratic chances to win big in 2024. Earlier
this year, he created a Substack newsletter named with the unfortunate
pun "Hopium Chronicles
<[link removed]>."
(Get it? Is he high on his own supply? What about those deaths of
despair?)

Rosenberg has called for massive investment in organizing, especially of
the young, and has helped activists raise money for it (which is all to
the good), and has criticized Democratic messaging. But the messaging he
proposes would be disastrous.

He argues that Democrats should be bragging about how great the economy
is <[link removed]>.
Unfortunately, that's not what most working-class people and most
young people experience.

Gallup, polling in early 2023
<[link removed]>,
found that 80 percent of people surveyed expect the economy to worsen
this year. A November 2022 survey by pollster Stan Greenberg for
Democracy Corps found that young people aged 18 to 29 feel negatively
about the economy by a margin of 38 percent. This is hardly surprising,
as I pointed out in a recent post
<[link removed]>,
because most young people are having great difficulty getting traction
in their own lives.

Political consultant Mike Lux told me, "Our message needs to be: We know
that times are still tough and that things still cost too much, but
we've gotten a lot done and are working to solve your problems-elect
more Democrats and we will help working families even more."

To the extent that onetime New Democrats are embracing Biden's
progressive program, that's a good sign of which way the wind is
blowing. That doesn't mean their advice should be heeded, either on
budget discipline or on messaging.

Michael Kinsley famously observed that conservatives welcome converts
while liberals abhor heretics. By all means, let's welcome belated
converts to the progressive cause-and be appropriately wary of what
they are selling.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

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