Rishi Sunak claimed that the IMF forecasts that the UK will have stronger growth than Germany, France and Italy
26 May 2023 | Full Fact's weekly news
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FACT CHECK
Near term projections for UK GDP growth are among the lowest in the G7
At Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak claimed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) “is now forecasting that we will have stronger growth than Germany, France and Italy”.
Mr Sunak did not specify what time period he was referring to. It is true that when looking at the IMF’s projections for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth from 2025 onwards, the UK is forecast to have higher growth than Germany, France and Italy.
But when looking at its forecasts for growth over the next two years, projections for UK GDP growth are among the lowest in the G7.
Government ministers and their departments must take care to present data and statistics with all necessary context and caveats. If data is presented without context or caveats, it can give an incomplete or misleading picture.
What do the IMF forecasts show? ([link removed])
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FACT CHECK
** Can pharmacists prescribe medicines? ([link removed])
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On 8 May, the government announced new plans for the way that people access healthcare in England.
This included the Pharmacy First scheme, which will make it easier to get prescription-only medicines for seven common conditions without seeing a GP.
When describing the new scheme, both the Prime Minister and NHS England said it was the “first time” that such a service would be available from pharmacists.
This is broadly true, but it doesn’t mean that pharmacists in England couldn’t prescribe medicines already. A minority of pharmacists have been able to prescribe medicines since at least 2003.
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FACT CHECK
** The suicide rate may not have been rising in recent years ([link removed])
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In a speech on healthcare on 22 May, the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said that the suicide rate is going up.
Labour has told us that Mr Starmer’s claim was based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the rate of suicides registered in England and Wales, which does show a general rising trend between its low point in 2007 and 2021. However data for the last few years is less clear, and trends vary according to which year you start from.
Any life lost by suicide is a terrible event. Public figures should try to describe this complex subject as accurately as possible, with appropriate context and caveats, to improve our chance of reducing the harm it causes.
ONS data on suicide occurrences may give a more reliable picture of recent trends, because it is less affected by changing delays to inquests, although it is subject to possible revisions.
This appears to show relatively little change in the rate of suicides between 2013, when the dataset begins, and 2021. Again, there are periods in the data when the rate is rising, but it has fallen in the last two years, and was slightly lower in 2021 than in 2013, although the figures could be revised in future.
We don’t yet have clear data on the rate of suicides that occurred in 2022, which may eventually show that it rose or that it fell.
How is the suicide rate measured? ([link removed])
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