May 25, 2023
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
DeSantis challenges for GOP presidential nomination: ‘I don’t think it has to be this way.’
By Robert Romano
Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis tossed his hat into the ring for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination in an unusual Twitter Spaces announcement on May 24 on investor David Sacks’ Twitter account, stating, “I am running for President of the United States to lead our great American comeback.”
Governor DeSantis now challenges former President Donald Trump, who has been leading Republican nominating polls as he has run relatively unopposed — the latest RealClearPolitics.com average of national polls in the GOP contest has Trump ahead of DeSantis by 34 points, 54.9 percent to 20.9 percent — with several months to go before the first in the nation Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary in early 2024.
DeSantis began his speech, which was not televised, on with a right track, wrong track analysis, citing an out of control southern border, rising crime, an increasing cost of living and attacking the incumbent President Joe Biden, who DeSantis said was not up to the task, stating, “Look, we know our country is going in the wrong direction, we see it with our eyes, we feel it in our bones. Our southern border's collapsed, drugs are pouring into our country, our cities are being hollowed out by spiking crime, the federal government's making it harder for the average family to make ends meet and to attain and maintain a middle class lifestyle, and our President, well, he lacks vigor, flounders in the face of our nation's challenges, and he takes his cues from the woke mob.”
DeSantis added, “I don't think it has to be this way.”
The Twitter Spaces announcement was originally on Elon Musk’s Twitter account, but technical issues initially prevented the announcement from proceeding with technical glitches as DeSantis supporters and observers of the race flooded into the Twitter Space. After several minutes, the announcement was transferred to Sacks’ account, who was co-hosting the announcement and the follow-up question and answer with DeSantis.
DeSantis’ own announcement followed that of President Biden, who did so by launching a campaign video with no campaign appearance before supporters. That he did it via social media was an interesting move, but also a potentially risky one. Announcements provide a candidate with an opportunity to present himself publicly to the nation for the first time, introduce themselves and provide supporters with images of the candidate leading their campaign and potentially the nation.
The thought has to do with making a splash, whereas DeSantis chose an unorthodox low-key approach to entering the race, not with fanfare, but with a brief prepared statement and then what was effectively a digital townhall meeting. An immediate question will be whether DeSantis receives any bump in the polls against Trump, and if he does not, questions might then center on why he didn’t do a formal announcement in the first place.
The saying goes that you never get a second chance to make a first impression. Whereas speeches via video are easy to share, and easy for press to then repackage, instead much of the initial press focused on the technical issues the Twitter Space was having. In a very real way, DeSantis was putting his political fortunes into a third party’s hands that his campaign could not control. It might pay off, and it might not.
But it might not matter much in the end. Memories are very short in politics, and attention will quickly turn to actual campaign stops in early contests like Iowa and New Hampshire, where Trump is starting out the campaign with double digit leads on DeSantis, 47.7 percent to 25.3 percent in Iowa and 41 percent to 23 percent in New Hampshire, according to the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls in those states.
Inasmuch as Trump is the frontrunner, but not an incumbent, the challenge stands in contrast to that of the incumbent President Joe Biden’s own primary challenge from Robert Kennedy, Jr., where Biden leads by 46 points, 64.7 percent to 18.7 percent, in the latest RealClearPolitics.com average.
Unseating a sitting president for his party’s nomination has never been done by a primary challenger, although a couple times a sitting president has stepped aside — Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson being recent examples in 1952 and 1968, respectively, after both candidates had weaknesses exposed in New Hampshire (Truman lost in New Hampshire and Johnson barely won there) and then bowed out — leaving it to the Democratic National Convention to ultimately choose the party’s nominee. In both cases, the incumbent party lost.
Whereas the Republican nomination is an open seat. While it is unusual for a former president who lost reelection to run for a third time, it is not without precedent, with Grover Cleveland winning the election of 1884, losing in 1888 to Benjamin Harrison and then winning again in 1892.
Normally, if Biden were a strong incumbent, perhaps DeSantis would have saw fit to just let Trump run relatively unopposed, but Biden is not a strong incumbent. Interestingly, the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls has Biden trailing both Trump and DeSantis, 44.4 percent to 43.6 percent in Trump’s case and 43 percent to 42.9 percent in DeSantis’, respectively, with Trump performing slightly better.
The reasons are easy to spot, and DeSantis cited a few of them in his campaign announcement, the rising cost of living, increasing crime and also, a weakening economy, which almost always disadvantages an incumbent president. As a result, Biden has a 54.1 percent disapproval rate in the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls taken. Only 42.3 percent approve. That’s pretty crappy.
With Kennedy exposing Biden’s weakness, plus Biden’s consistent upside-down approval, the White House is very much up for grabs for whoever the Republican nominee is. Sensing that, DeSantis is making his move now. But to get there, first he has to get through Trump. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2023/05/trump-officially-pulls-ahead-of-biden-with-double-digit-lead-with-independents-and-suburbanites/
Video: Sinema, Lankford fight to STOP asylum EXPLOITATION as Biden’s border CHAOS continues!
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oqf46XVmpdk
Video: Karine Jean Pierre Caught in the Act! Illegal Border Crossings Have Not “Plummeted”
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u91YeGwnkNc
Trump Officially Pulls Ahead of Biden with Double-Digit Lead with Independents and Suburbanites
By Manzanita Miller
A new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll shows former President Trump leading President Biden by seven percentage points in a head-to-head matchup for the role of president in 2024, a reversal from previous months. The poll shows Trump with a double-digit lead among Independents and suburbanites, groups that favored Biden in the 2020 election and now appear to be moving toward Trump.
According to the survey, if the 2024 election were held today, 47 percent of respondents would vote for Trump and 40 percent would support President Biden, while 13 percent either did not know or were unsure about their choice.
The former President is consolidating support with groups who supported him in 2020, including whites, men, and rural voters. Trump leads Biden by 15 percentage points with men, 18 percentage points with white voters, and a full 26 points with rural voters.
However, groups that could hardly be construed as hard-Republicans are moving toward Trump as well. Trump leads Biden by 13 percentage points with suburban voters, 15 percentage points with Independents, and six points with younger voters under age 35. All these groups largely supported Biden, and their departure from the Biden camp should they choose not to support his reelection will have a significant impact on the primaries and the general election.
Among college-educated voters, Trump and Biden are locked in a dead-heat, which itself is interesting because college-educated voters were instrumental to Biden’s 2020 success. The new poll shows 45% of college-educated voters would support Trump and 45% would support Biden, while voters without a college degree would support Trump by 11 percentage points. This is a significant closing of the college-educated gap, at least in this particular poll.
The issues that appear to be driving formerly-Biden-friendly groups toward Trump are primarily economic and foreign affairs matters. For example, Independents disapprove of Biden’s handling of inflation by 46 percentage points, and suburban voters disapprove by 29 percentage points. Inflation is also a pain point for younger voters who disapprove of the president’s handling of inflation by 13 percentage points.
Independents also disapprove of Biden’s handling of foreign affairs by 23 percentage points, while suburban voters disapprove by 16 percentage points and young people disapprove by a full 24 percentage points.
The poll also found when Biden was pitted against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has officially announced his campaign for President this week, Biden and DeSantis were in a dead heat with each receiving 50 percent of the vote.
This comes on top of a recent Real Clear Politics poll showing Trump leading DeSantis by a full 37 percentage points among GOP primary voters.
Trump has rapidly gained against DeSantis among GOP primary voters in the past two months, going from 43% of the vote in March of this year to 56% of the vote today. Meanwhile DeSantis has been slipping in polls, even though he has yet to officially announce his candidacy.
The most recent Real Clear Politics poll showed Trump securing 56% of the vote to DeSantis’ 19.9% and Mike Pence earning 5.9% of the vote. News of Trump’s indictment in March for alleged hush money payments and the recent jury verdict finding him at fault for defamation and abuse have only increased his polling numbers, as Trump denies all wrongdoing.
DeSantis is expected to officially announce his presidential bid on Twitter this week in a talk with Elon Musk, and it is possible in doing so he’ll enjoy a bump in the polls, particularly in his home state of Florida. In addition to recent polling data which indicates that Trump is gaining popularity among various segments of the Republican party including young people, minorities, independents, and lower-income voters, there are notable shifts in his favor.
Comparing YouGov polls conducted in late March to those conducted in April, Trump's support among voters under thirty increased by 9 percentage points following news of his indictment. Moreover, he gained 7 points with lower-income voters and 6 points with Independents. Even urban voters and moderates have shown a slight inclination towards the former President, with a 4 percentage point increase in support compared to nearly two months ago.
YouGov polls further reveal that over half of GOP primary voters aged 18-29 (51%) have a favorable view of Trump, while only 43% hold the same view of DeSantis. Among voters aged 30-44, Trump is favored by 49%, whereas DeSantis has the support of 36%. Trump also holds a 7 percentage point lead over DeSantis among voters aged 45-64, but DeSantis is preferred by 5 percentage points among voters over 65.
According to an April YouGov poll, two-thirds of young GOP primary voters express support for Trump as the GOP nominee in 2024. Among right-leaning individuals under 30, 66% want Trump to become the GOP nominee, compared to 51-56% among older age groups.
Furthermore, an average of two April polls conducted by CNN/SSRS and Quinnipiac University reveals that Trump holds a substantial lead over DeSantis, with approximately 29 percentage points (55% to 26%) among voters of color, as well as a 22-point lead among voters earning less than $50,000.
Trump is holding onto support with GOP-friendly voters including non-college whites, rural voters, and lower-income voters, but he is also gaining support from swing voters. His polling numbers are up with suburbanites, independents, college-educated voters, and young people – groups that were instrumental to Biden’s election in 2020. Economic issues and foreign policy issues appear to be major drivers of swing voters’ dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration. Biden’s poor marks on these issues could drive these groups toward Trump or toward Biden’s challengers within the Democratic Party.
Manzanita Miller is an Associate Analyst with Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2023/05/desantis-challenges-for-gop-presidential-nomination-i-dont-think-it-has-to-be-this-way/