Whatever the outcome of the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive, calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine are likely to increase later this year. Given both the Russian and Ukrainian positions, the diplomatic path to a ceasefire will be very difficult. The United States will have to take the lead, since full U.S. engagement and commitment will be necessary both to achieve and to maintain a ceasefire, as well as to drive subsequent negotiations for a final peace settlement. To do this, the Biden administration will need help from other international actors — China first among them.
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