[Party leaders thought they had set a trap for Republicans. It
hasn’t worked out that way at all. ]
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THE DEMOCRATS HAVE ALREADY LOST THE DEBT CEILING FIGHT  
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Alex Shephard
May 22, 2023
The New Republic
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_ Party leaders thought they had set a trap for Republicans. It
hasn’t worked out that way at all. _

, Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

 

Six months ago, Democrats were riding high. They had just improbably
overperformed
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in the midterm elections; if it wasn’t for the meltdown
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of New York’s Democratic Party, they likely would have held onto
slim majorities
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in both chambers of Congress. Their victory in those elections was as
much a repudiation of the Republican Party as it was an endorsement of
Joe Biden’s first two years—if not more so, given the
president’s anemic popularity. Voters were clearly opposed to the
GOP’s growing extremism.

And so, the Democrats decided to press their advantage. Instead of
raising the debt limit during the lame duck, when they still possessed
a narrow advantage in both the House and the Senate, they made the
strategic decision to do nothing. When the need to raise the debt
limit approached in 2023, the thinking went, the Republicans now in
control of the House would once again show their extremism, voters
would recoil, and—voila—another Democratic masterstroke.
“Although there is grave risk to the economy, the gun is in
Republicans’ hands,” a Biden adviser told Politico
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a week after the midterm elections. “And there is little question as
to who will get blamed for this.” Sure, the risks were
great—default would be an economic calamity—but the potential
rewards were enormous, especially with the 2024 election looming. So
the Democrats made a bet: make raising the debt limit the GOP’s
responsibility.

One need not have hindsight to see the folly here, which many
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noted
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at the time. But as the debt limit hurtles closer—the United States
could default in less than two weeks—it looks more and more like a
catastrophic miscalculation.

The Republican position on the debt limit is exactly what everyone
expected. Although both parties have routinely raised the limit since
it originated during World War II without much fuss
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Republicans more recently have refused
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to do so when they’re in the minority in Washington. During
Obama’s first term, they have taken the debt limit hostage to try to
force the Democrats to make steep cuts to social spending programs,
many of which are aimed at helping the poor.

The Democrats knew the Republicans would do this, which is why Biden
insisted for months that he would not negotiate
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over the debt ceiling. And yet here he is today, very much negotiating
over the debt ceiling. Cuts are on the table: Over the weekend,
Democrats offered to essentially freeze spending
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on both domestic and military spending, a deal Republicans rejected.
The GOP countered with increasing spending for the military, as well
as border security—both of which would require even steeper cuts
elsewhere.

So Republicans are predictably being unreasonable. But there is no
sign yet that the Democrats are getting the outcome they’d hoped
for—that voters would recognize that the GOP was acting in bad
faith, thereby putting pressure on House Majority Leader Kevin
McCarthy to cave. Recent polling from ABC and _The Washington Post_
does give Democrats a narrow advantage
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but not much of one. An equal number of voters from each party—78
percent—would blame the opposite party for default, not surprising
given the level of partisanship at the moment. Thirty-seven percent of
independents say they would blame Republicans, with 29 percent blaming
Joe Biden and 24 percent blaming both parties equally—hardly a
resounding political statement.

To be fair, the Democrats may have ended up in this position anyway.
Raising the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session would have required
assent from Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, but surely, as
_The American Prospect_’s David Dayen pointed out
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they would have been easier to negotiate with than McCarthy. And even
if Democrats had accomplished that, Republicans would use the
appropriations process to try to extract deep cuts. But the economic
risks associated with appropriations are significantly lower, which
would increase Democratic leverage: With the debt ceiling, Republicans
can threaten to essentially nuke the entire economy unless Democrats
capitulate.

No wonder some Democrats are regretting the decision that led to this
point. “If I could do one thing different” it would be not hiking
the debt limit during the lame duck, Virginia senator Tim Kaine told
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Politico last week. “And I was saying it at the time … ‘hey, we
got the votes.’” One Democratic Senate aide echoed
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Kaine’s sentiment to Semafor, saying, “We had a lot of time to
come up with a plan. And we didn’t.”

Democrats are now in a position that appears to be the worst of both
worlds: If the debt ceiling is breached, they will reap much of the
political fallout. If it isn’t, they likely will have to agree to
significant cuts to crucial programs like welfare and food stamps.
Either way, they will complain about the wreckage caused by Republican
extremism, and hope voters see their side of it. But the Democrats
will only have themselves to blame for this mess.

Alex Shephard [[link removed]]
@alex_shephard [[link removed]]

Alex Shephard is a staff writer at _The __New Republic__._

* US Debt Ceiling; Democratic Strategy;
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