Daily News Brief

May 23, 2023

Top of the Agenda

Witnesses saw fighter jets flying (Reuters) over Sudan’s capital of Khartoum and heard clashes in the city today despite a weeklong cease-fire that was scheduled to begin at 9:45 local time last night. Shortly before the truce was due to take effect, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group shared a video that thanked the United States and Saudi Arabia for mediating the group’s peace talks with rival military forces but told RSF fighters that “we will not retreat.” 

A UN envoy to Sudan warned the UN Security Council yesterday that the “ethnicization” of the conflict risked prolonging the violence (Reuters). More than seven hundred people have been killed (VOA) in five weeks of fighting, he said. Over one million others are internally displaced.

Analysis

“I expect that this ceasefire is seen by the parties as a way to score political points locally and avoid more sanctions and pressure internationally. As long as breaking it comes with no political or financial consequences, it will be broken,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Cameron Hudson tweets.

“Unless the fighting is contained, there is now a very real chance that what began in Khartoum could engulf the rest of the country. The vacuum in the capital has already restarted old conflicts in West Darfur, where Arab tribes—some affiliated with the RSF—have begun to attack civilians, and the latter have started arming themselves,” Mai Hassan of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and aid worker Ahmed Kodouda write for Foreign Affairs.

Pacific Rim

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is due to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping (AFP) on a two-day visit to Beijing. He is traveling with several businesspeople subject to U.S. sanctions.

East Timor: Opposition party National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction won the most votes (AFP) in Sunday’s parliamentary elections but fell short of an outright majority, giving the party a chance to form a coalition. 

South and Central Asia

The Kremlin is using economic threats to pressure India and other governments to urge the Financial Action Task Force, a global money-laundering watchdog, not to add Russia to a “black list” or “gray list” that would penalize its business partners, Bloomberg reported.

This In Brief by Noah Berman and Anshu Siripurapu looks at how one year of sanctions against Russia have affected its finances.

Pakistan: An Islamabad court granted former Prime Minister Imran Khan bail (Dawn) until June 8 on several cases related to violence amid anti-government protests held by his supporters.

Middle East and North Africa

The agreement reduces tariffs (Reuters) on Iranian oil, chemicals, meat, and some dairy products while giving Indonesia better access to products such as processed food and pharmaceuticals.

Russia/Saudi Arabia: Russia’s interior minister visited Saudi Arabia (AP) to discuss security affairs. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was there just days earlier addressing an Arab League summit.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Mali did not immediately respond to the U.S. accusation that Russia’s Wagner Group is planning to ship weapons (Bloomberg) for fighters in Ukraine through Mali using false paperwork. 

This In Brief by William Rampe examines Wagner’s role in Africa.

Europe

The Freedom of Russia Legion, which says its fighters are Russians, claimed yesterday’s ground attacks (NYT) in the Belgorod region near Russia’s border with Ukraine. Russian officials blamed Kyiv for the attacks, but Kyiv denied responsibility.

Denmark/Russia/Ukraine: Denmark would like to host peace talks (Reuters) between Russia and Ukraine in July, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said. The talks would require engagement from countries including Brazil, China, and India, he said.

At this virtual meeting, experts including CFR’s Charles A. Kupchan discuss how the war in Ukraine could end.

Americas

Mexico will give one-year visas (Reuters) to welders, iron workers, engineers, and migrants from other professions to work on public infrastructure projects, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said. He did not specify how many.

Bolivia: A Vatican sex crimes investigator has arrived in Bolivia (AP) amid revelations about priests’ alleged sexual abuse of children during the 1970s and 1980s. The Bolivian Episcopal Conference said this visit is not directly related to the recent allegations.

United States

The image, apparently generated by artificial intelligence (AI), was briefly shared (WaPo) on a verified Twitter account before being debunked yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped and then quickly rebounded.

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