Jack, the Republican Party's long losing streak continued with a big night for Democrats in a string of local elections across the country on Tuesday night. Here are some of the highlights:

Dems flipped the mayoralty of Jacksonville, Florida, which was until this week the largest city in the country with a Republican mayor.
They won a special election for the Pennsylvania state House that kept Dems' one-seat majority intact.
And they crushed Republicans in a New Hampshire state House special election, in which the Democratic candidate outperformed Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton's wins in the district by a jaw-dropping 16 points.

After last year's incredible midterm performance—which saw Dems pick up a seat in the Senate and win scores of crucial downballot offices while only just barely losing control of the House—Democrats are on an undeniably incredible winning streak. The gains made under Trump were great, but they were somewhat predictable for an opposition party. That the streak has continued after Biden took office defies basically all recent electoral history.

Here's why this is so important: A party's performance in special elections and other races held in odd-numbered years can often predict how that will perform in the coming federal election. For instance, Republicans swept Virginia's state elections in 2009, which turned out to be a harbinger of the 2010 GOP wave. Democrats did the same thing there in 2017 in the run-up to the 2018 blue wave. Strong Democratic performance in special elections held immediately Roe v. Wade was overturned last year presaged a shockingly good midterm election for Dems.

To put it another way: Democrats' continued winning streak in 2023 could be a sign that a blue wave is forming ahead of 2024.

Does this mean Democrats are a sure bet to win in 2024? No, absolutely not. But it's an early piece of evidence that we may be on the cusp of a major victory—and we need to position ourselves to take advantage of a blue wave should one materialize. That's why I'm asking you to start a $5 monthly recurring donation to Daily Kos right now.

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Thank you,

David Nir, Political Director
Daily Kos

P.S. This week's episode of our podcast, "The Downballot," is all about Tuesday's wins. Click here to listen, and if you like what you hear, click here to subscribe.

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