Morning Digest

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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from Daniel Donner, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert and David Beard.

Leading Off

• Jacksonville, FL Mayor: Florida Democrats scored a huge pickup on Tuesday when former TV anchor Donna Deegan won the officially nonpartisan race for mayor of Jacksonville by defeating her Republican foe, Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce head Daniel Davis, 52-48. Deegan's win in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Mayor Lenny Curry will make her the first woman to lead the state’s most populous city and just the second Democrat to hold this office since the early 1990s.

Deegan overcame a serious financial advantage enjoyed by Davis, who aired ads attacking her for attending Black Lives Matter demonstrations in 2020, to give her party a much-needed victory months after its statewide drubbing. She also ends Jacksonville’s status as the largest city in America with a Republican mayor, a title that now goes to Fort Worth, Texas, where incumbent Mattie Price easily won a second term earlier this month.

Jacksonville, which was consolidated with the rest of Duval County in 1968, was for decades a conservative stronghold in both state and local politics. Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory began a Republican winning streak that would continue well into the 21st century, while Mayor Ed Austin’s 1993 party switch gave the GOP control of city hall for the first time in a century.

Democrats finally took back the mayor’s office in 2011 when Alvin Brown narrowly beat a hardline GOP foe who had alienated business interests, a win that also made him the city’s first Black leader. His tenure, though, didn't usher in a new progressive era in Jacksonville as the mayor distanced himself from state and national Democrats and further alienated the party base by refusing to back a human rights ordinance aimed at protecting the city’s large LGBTQ community. Curry, a former state GOP chair, unseated Brown 51-49 in 2015, and Democrats didn’t even put up a candidate to oppose him four years later.

Despite recent history, though, Democrats still had reasons for optimism about Duval County’s long-term direction. Both Sen. Bill Nelson and gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum took the city in 2018 despite narrowly losing statewide, while Joe Biden's subsequent 51-47 victory made him the party’s first presidential nominee to carry Duval County since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Things were much bleaker in 2022 as both Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis carried Duval by wide margins, though local Democrats at least had the comfort of knowing that Jacksonville was still voting to the left of the state as a whole.

Deegan’s win on Tuesday at last gave her party some indisputably good news, but Democrats still have much work to do in the future in order to turn Duval County into a blue bastion. Republican T.K. Waters secured reelection this year without opposition as sheriff, which also puts him in charge of the city’s police, while the GOP continues to maintain a considerable advantage on the 19-person City Council. Still, Democrats are hoping that Deegan’s triumph will mark a new beginning in north Florida.

Election Recaps

• KY-Gov: Attorney General Daniel Cameron prevailed in Tuesday’s nasty and expensive Republican primary for governor by defeating Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles 48-22, with self-funder Kelly Craft taking just 17%.Cameron will now try to unseat incumbent Andy Beshear, who is the only Democrat left holding statewide office, in what will be a closely watched general election showdown in November.

Beshear has posted strong approval numbers throughout his tenure, and he’ll once again need to win extensive crossover support in a state Donald Trump carried in a 62-36 landslide. The only poll we’ve seen testing a general election battle between the governor and Cameron came in January when Mason-Dixon showed Beshear ahead 49-40 as other Republicans performed even worse. And because the Democrat didn’t have to worry about winning renomination, he was able to stockpile a hefty $6.1 million war chest through mid-May that he can use to defend himself this fall.

Cameron, by contrast, had to get through a financially draining intra-party battle against Craft that leaves him without much starting cash. The former ambassador to the United Nations, with the help of a super PAC funded by her husband, spent the past two months airing ads labeling Cameron a “soft establishment teddy bear” and portraying him as hostile to the state’s coal industry. Craft also launched commercials trying to link Cameron to Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who also happens to be Black.

But the attorney general and his allies pushed back by highlighting Trump’s endorsement of his campaign and portraying his opponent as an “ultra-rich” liar. Quarles tried to pitch himself as an alternative for the voters who had soured on Cameron and Craft, but this was only enough to earn him a distant second place.

While Cameron was focused on fending off Craft, whose side spent more than twice as much money for TV and radio ads, the GOP began previewing its attacks on Beshear. The attorney general used his primary ads to insist the Democrat had “ignored the Constitution and shut churches down," though of course he didn’t mention that these shutdowns were part of the public health measures Beshear took early in the pandemic. The Republican Governor’s Association last month also demonstrated it would weaponize transphobia with its own spot targeting Beshear for vetoing a bill that bans gender-affirming care for young trans people, something the GOP-dominated legislature quickly overrode.

Redistricting

• AK Redistricting: Alaska's bipartisan Redistricting Board voted unanimously on Monday to permanently adopt the interim state Senate map that a judge implemented ahead of last year's elections. That interim map was imposed after two plans passed by the panel's Republican majority were rejected by the courts as illegal partisan gerrymanders. Last month, the state Supreme Court gave the board a third chance at drawing a final map but told commissioners they would have to demonstrate "good cause" as to why the interim districts shouldn't be used for the rest of the decade, an option the board declined.

Senate

• MD-Sen: Telecom executive Juan Dominguez has formed an exploratory committee for a potential run for the Democratic nomination, and he tells Maryland Matters he'll decide in the late summer. The story notes that Dominguez, whose prior experience in elected office was on a municipal council in New Jersey in the 1990s, has also donated to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other Republicans. Dominguez himself says he'd bring a "business approach" and "a bipartisan approach" to office.

House

• CA-41: Former federal prosecutor Will Rollins announced Tuesday that he would seek a rematch against Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in a California House seat that Donald Trump only narrowly carried, a kickoff that comes months after Rollins held the 16-term incumbent to a surprisingly tight 52-48 victory. Rollins launched his second bid with endorsements from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi and all three major Democratic Senate contenders—Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter, and Adam Schiff—as well as former Sen. Barbara Boxer, who lives in the district.

Rollins isn't the only Democrat competing in next year's top-two primary for the 41st Congressional District, which is entirely situated in Riverside County east of Los Angeles, but he looks like the early frontrunner. Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan, who badly lost to Calvert in 2014 and 2016 in the old and reliably red 42nd District, began a third campaign in late March, but he didn't report raising any money before the quarter ended 12 days later. San Jacinto City Councilman Brian Hawkins, who ran as a "pro-life" Republican last year against Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz in the neighboring 25th District, also recently announced he'd switched parties to run in the 41st.

Calvert was first elected to Congress in 1992 by narrowly beating Democrat Mark Takano, who years later would become his colleague by flipping another Riverside County seat in 2012, and his only other close call over the ensuing decades came during the 2008 blue wave. But things got dicier for Calvert last cycle when his suburban Riverside seat became significantly bluer in redistricting thanks to the addition of the gay mecca of Palm Springs: While Donald Trump won the old version 53-45, he carried the new iteration by just a 50-49 spread.

Rollins spent the 2022 campaign arguing that Calvert's longtime opposition to LGBTQ rights and allegiance to Trump made him an unacceptable representative, and he raised a hefty $3.7 million to make his case. Neither national party, however, prioritized the contest at a time when California Democrats were largely on the defensive, and none of the four largest House independent expenditure groups directed resources here. It was therefore a surprise to just about everyone that it took almost a week to learn that Calvert had secured his 16th term.

Rollins, who attended freshman orientation during the days when the verdict was in doubt, came close despite the fact that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom was losing the district 55-45 to Republican Brian Dahle, and he's betting the political climate will be different this time. "The first and foremost urgent threat that I see in this coming election is again to democracy and the rule of law," Rollins said as he launched his renewed effort. "If Trump is the nominee, and we've got a House of Representatives that is unwilling to certify the results of a democratic election, everything America stands for collapses."

• CA-45: Board of Equalization member Mike Schaefer, an 86-year-old Democrat who would be the oldest House freshman in history, filed FEC paperwork this week for a potential campaign against Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, but his personal history may make him a nonstarter. As the San Francisco Chronicle put it in a jaw-dropping paragraph during his reelection campaign last year:

He was accused — and eventually acquitted — in a 1970 Yellow Cab bribery scandal in San Diego, when he served on the City Council. He was convicted of misdemeanor spousal abuse and jailed in 1993, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune, and was ordered by a jury in 1986 to pay $1.83 million to former tenants in Los Angeles who sued because they said their apartments, rented from Schaefer, were overrun with rats, cockroaches, sewage and street gangs, according to the Los Angeles Times. And in 2013, a Nevada court ordered him to stay at least 100 feet away from actor and comedian Brad Garrett, who played a cop and brother in "Everybody Loves Raymond," after he allegedly stalked the actor following a dispute over a complimentary ticket to a Las Vegas show.

Schaefer's team responded by insisting people should focus on his performance in office instead of his "colorful past," and voters supported him 59-41 over a fellow Democrat.  

• CA-47: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has endorsed former Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh in his bid for California's open 47th Congressional District. McCarthy's involvement comes a month after businessman Max Ukropina became the second notable Republican to enter the race.

Last year, Baugh, who served in the state Assembly in the 1990s, lost by a 52-48 margin to Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is now running for Senate. Baugh also unsuccessfully ran for the predecessor version of this district in 2018 when it was still represented by Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. In the top-two primary where Rohrabacher easily took first place, Baugh nearly shut Democrats out of the general election when he finished in fourth just behind the party’s two leading contenders; Democrat Harley Rouda went on to unseat Rohrabacher that fall.

• MI-10: 2022 Democratic nominee Carl Marlinga filed paperwork this week for a potential second bout with freshman Republican Rep. John James, but he tells the Detroit Free Press he hasn't actually decided to run yet. Marlinga says he did this because he's raised more than $5,000 during the year, which is the maximum amount that a possible candidate can raise or spend before they're required to register with the FEC.

• NY-22: Clem Harris, a Utica University history professor who previously served as a high-level aide for then-Gov. David Patterson, told syracuse.com Tuesday he planned to launch a bid against Republican Rep. Brandon Williams within 10 days. Harris would face DeWitt Town Board member Sarah Klee Hood in the Democratic primary for a constituency in the Syracuse and Utica areas that Joe Biden took 53-45.

• TX-15: Businesswoman Michelle Vallejo announced Tuesday she'd be seeking a rematch against freshman Republican Rep. Monica de la Cruz, a move that makes her the first notable Democrat to launch a campaign for this 51-48 Trump seat in the Rio Grande Valley. De la Cruz won this constituency 53-45 after a contest where the two biggest GOP House outside groups deployed $2.3 million while their Democratic counterparts spent almost nothing.

• TX-34: Pastor Luis Cabrera tells the Texas Tribune he's getting ready to challenge Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez in the event that his fellow Republican, former Rep. Mayra Flores, doesn't run. Cabrera added that he'd support Flores should she seek to avenge her 53-44 defeat in last year's incumbent vs. incumbent battle.

Prosecutors and Sheriffs

• St. Louis, MO Circuit Attorney: Democratic incumbent Kim Gardner resigned Tuesday two weeks ahead of her previously announced June 1 departure date, though she didn't explain why she was moving up her timeline. GOP Gov. Mike Parson will be tasked with appointing a replacement to serve until after next year's regularly scheduled election, and he says his choice will be announced Friday. The governor is free to select a fellow Republican, though that person would almost certainly have no chance at winning in this loyally blue city.

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