Daily News Brief

May 17, 2023

Top of the Agenda

The nations of the so-called Quad—the United States, Australia, India, and Japan—canceled a summit (Bloomberg) set to take place in Sydney next week after U.S. President Joe Biden announced that he would skip the meeting to attend talks in Washington aimed at averting a default on the U.S. national debt. Biden departs Washington today for a Group of Seven (G7) meeting in Japan, and he originally planned to remain in Asia through next week before traveling on to Papua New Guinea and Australia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Australia next week despite the Quad summit’s cancellation, while Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio called off his own trip.

After meeting with top lawmakers yesterday, Biden said he is optimistic (FT) that the United States can raise its debt ceiling and avoid a default. Earlier, an open letter from more than a hundred leading business executives warned Biden and congressional leaders that a government default could have “disastrous consequences” for the U.S. economy. 

Analysis

“I think it’s pretty safe to say that if we were to default, it makes the odds of a recession almost certain,” former U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said at a CFR meeting on the debt ceiling. “It’s a very dangerous time to be going through this kind of brinksmanship.”

“US domestic polarization damaging its interests abroad,” the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s Stephen Dziedzic tweets. “Will also disappoint Australian officials + deal a blow to US credibility in [Papua New Guinea], which has already poured resources into planning.”

Pacific Rim

Envoys from Australia, France, Germany, and the European Union (EU) joined a group of Southeast Asian parliamentarians in denouncing Cambodia’s electoral authority (UCA News) for disqualifying the opposition Candlelight Party from the country’s July 23 general election. The authority said the party did not register with the proper paperwork.

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick writes that Cambodia’s election fits into a pattern of democratic backsliding in Southeast Asia.

UK/Taiwan: Liz Truss became the first former prime minister of the United Kingdom (UK) to visit Taiwan (BBC) since Margaret Thatcher. In Taipei today, she called for current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to classify China as a threat to the UK’s security. Beijing called Truss’s visit “a dangerous political stunt.”

South and Central Asia

Local and international human rights groups condemned the move (VOA), with the independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan voicing concern over apparent arbitrary detentions of those who showed support for former Prime Minister Imran Khan during protests last week.

India: The country is deploying extra security forces (Reuters) in Jammu and Kashmir following a spate of attacks by Islamist militants. The territory will host a Group of Twenty (G20) meeting on tourism next week.

Middle East and North Africa

Russia pledged to help finance (Reuters) the rail line, which is designed to connect Azerbaijan, India, Iran, and Russia as part of a larger north-south trade route.

France/Lebanon: A French judge issued an international arrest warrant for Lebanon’s central bank chief in connection to a probe of his alleged misuse of Lebanese public funds, AFP reported.

Sub-Saharan Africa

As fighting in Sudan enters its second month, the United Nations estimates that twenty-five million people, or more than half of the country’s population, need aid and protection (AFP).

African countries/Russia/Ukraine: The leaders of Egypt, the Republic of Congo, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia plan to travel to Russia and Ukraine (Le Monde, AFP) “as soon as is possible” to help seek a resolution to the war, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said.

Europe

At a meeting in Reykjavík, Iceland, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Sunak agreed that the EU’s border management agency will work with UK authorities (FT) to curb illegal migration across the English Channel.

Germany: The trial of five people accused of planning to overthrow the government and kidnap the health minister began today in Berlin (AP).

Americas

President Guillermo Lasso employed a never-before-used constitutional power (NYT) to dissolve congress and rule by decree as the opposition-controlled legislature began hearings to impeach him on embezzlement charges. 

For the Latin America’s Moment blog, CFR’s Will Freeman looks at how Lasso came to face impeachment.

Argentina: Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who previously served as president, said she will not run (Buenos Aires Times) in October’s presidential election. Her ruling leftist coalition has yet to settle on a candidate.

This Backgrounder looks at Argentina’s struggle for stability.

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