A Prospect newsletter about the debt limit
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The Narrative Shift of the Debt Ceiling Fight

On today's X-Date, how passing a bill gave Kevin McCarthy a momentary
advantage that has yet to be counteracted

 

 

Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo

By David Dayen

**** On February 1, Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy met in
the Oval Office. The readout of the meeting
<[link removed]>
was useless, but Biden did deliver a message, at that meeting and for
weeks afterward: The Speaker could come back to talk when he got a debt
limit bill through the House. McCarthy would go on to whine that he
didn't hear from the president again for the next 97 days
<[link removed]>.
Of course, McCarthy had the ability to accelerate that timeline: Pass a
bill, and the next phase of the process could begin.

I do believe there was some inkling, at least within the White House,
that McCarthy would never get that bill passed. It took a fairly
superhuman effort for him to thread the needle of his caucus and find a
majority, and then only when two Democrats missed the vote. You can't
fight something with nothing; if McCarthy couldn't get consensus, at
some point he'd have to acquiesce to a clean debt ceiling increase.
That would have been humiliating and reasonably possible. It was worth
going for from the Democrats' perspective.

Even after House Republicans passed their bill-the Limit, Save, Grow
Act (LSGA)-Democrats had some opportunities. The Limit, Save, Grow Act
put frontline Republicans in tough districts on the record for throwing
the country into a decade of budget austerity, cutting food assistance
and health care for poor people, allowing tax cheats to go free, and
ripping apart the historic investment in domestic manufacturing and
industrial reshoring. Having Republicans negotiate against themselves
for three months and getting them leashed to a bill that could be easily
pummeled was a strategy that will be useful next November.

But November 2024 is 18 months away. In the here and now, passage of
LSGA changed the contours of the fight. There's a negotiation going
on, as much as some Democrats don't want to admit it. The White House
is picking from a menu assembled by House Republicans, deciding how much
of a ransom to offer in exchange for not destroying the global economy.
And administration officials keep chattering about progress
<[link removed]>
being made.

**Read all of our debt ceiling coverage here**
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Sensing this change in the dynamics, the House Republicans have only
grown more emboldened. McCarthy felt such urgency about talking to the
president that he took a congressional delegation overseas
<[link removed]>
immediately after passing LSGA, a subtle show of dominance. McCarthy's
house organ Punchbowl quoted him
<[link removed]> saying that
stiffer work requirements for federal benefit programs were a must-have.
(Biden set this off by first signaling some openness
<[link removed]>
to work requirements, before sending a tweet
<[link removed]> that appeared to
shut that down.) Other House Republicans are saying they want border
restrictions
<[link removed]>,
which weren't even in LSGA, added to the package. And when the White
House offered some tax loophole closures as part of the negotiations,
House leaders flat out rejected them
<[link removed]>.

This is the new reality, where House Republicans are in control,
alternately making demands and denying anything for the other side in
exchange. This hostage negotiation has been appallingly normalized
<[link removed]>
by the Beltway media, and progressive Democrats are rightly getting
nervous
<[link removed]>.
None of this happened until House Republicans passed a bill. By the
conventions of D.C. etiquette, once that occurred, the Democrats had to
"do something" to respond.

Mike Tyson had a saying
<[link removed]>
that everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. The
question is, what was the Democratic plan after McCarthy got a bill
through the House?

One that seems fairly obvious would have been for the Senate to
immediately vote down the LSGA. Senate Democrats have been unsparing
about the bill's impact-Chuck Schumer has been the attack dog in
this fight-but they have not backed that up with a vote. If I
understand the D.C. etiquette right, if the Senate voted LSGA down, the
ball would shift back to McCarthy's court, and he'd have to find
something that could actually have a shot to pass the Senate. Or at
least, that would be one media narrative.

But while Schumer has fast-tracked
<[link removed]>
both LSGA and a clean debt ceiling bill, he hasn't given McCarthy's
bill a vote since its April 26 passage.

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There may be reasons for that. You could argue that a vote wasn't
necessary; LSGA was dead on arrival the moment the House passed it, and
nobody in Washington seriously believes otherwise. In addition, some
Senate Republican votes will be needed eventually for the ultimate
agreement, and forcing them into a tough vote on LSGA could damage
goodwill. (Of course, being a senator doesn't mean being forever
protected from the consequences of actions.) Having the House pass a
bill with revenue in it (which cannot be initiated by the Senate) gives
the Senate options to pass whatever the deal becomes and jam House
Republicans, too.

But whatever the reason, Senate Democrats are living with the dynamics
as they stand. They have not ferreted out Mitch McConnell, whose
consistent line has been that Biden and McCarthy need to get together to
solve the problem, insisting that he's not involved. A vote would have
forced his involvement. Furthermore, nobody has demonstrated in public
that the bill McCarthy passed cannot win favor in the Senate, which
could have provided a big flashing signal that McCarthy spent all that
effort for nothing. It's all been implied, and maybe that's good
enough for Washington-but too subtle for the country.

Biden had cards to play as well, but he's in deal-making mode.
McCarthy praised Biden after Tuesday's principals meeting in the White
House, saying that it "was a little more productive," suggesting that
things are moving in the House Speaker's direction.

McCarthy still has his own hurdles to overcome. Nobody believes he's
prepared himself for the consequences of an actual deal, which will by
definition be a climbdown from LSGA. You're starting to see this
skepticism crop up
<[link removed]>
in the D.C. media, with Senate Republicans wondering if he can deliver a
compromise at all. That centrist Democrats have run to their media
organs to signal they would vote to save McCarthy if there's a
Republican bid to remove him after a debt ceiling compromise shows you
the relative weakness of the Speaker's position. That McCarthy, like
McConnell, is also pleading for one-on-one talks with the president
signals the same thing.

But for now, McCarthy is riding a wave created by the House bill
passage, and Biden, by opening negotiations, is surfing right into it.
So far, the actions to get McCarthy off that wave have been
insufficient. The D.C. media narratives that seemingly arbitrarily
determine who's up and who's down in congressional fights are indeed
stupid, but they have grave policy implications. Unless they change, bad
things will happen to good people.

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