Spiraling conflict in Sudan could have long-term consequences across the region, as the violence spreads and many of the more than 1 million refugees and asylum seekers in the country return to their troubled countries of origin. The month-old conflict between two warring generals has already displaced more than 736,000 people within Sudan, sent more than 177,000 people fleeing the country, and could prompt an estimated 860,000 to leave by October, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. The situation is bleak, with hundreds dead, widespread shortages of food and water, and just one-fifth of health facilities fully functional. The fighting may seem especially tragic for Sudan, which so recently appeared on the precipice of democracy after the 2019 overthrow of autocrat Omar al-Bashir. Instead, two generals involved in Bashir’s ouster, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (often known simply as Hemedti), in 2021 pushed out the civilian-led transitional government and unsuccessfully attempted to share power between them, leading to the new fighting. Recent days’ diplomatic efforts to halt the war have so far failed to yield meaningful progress. More than one-quarter of those projected to flee Sudan in coming weeks are foreign-born refugees who are likely to return to South Sudan, Eritrea, and elsewhere. An estimated 180,000 refugees are projected to return to South Sudan, which broke off from its northern neighbor just 12 years ago and which recently emerged from its own bitter civil war. Returnees are likely to find a similarly dire situation, with little humanitarian support, virtually nonexistent infrastructure, and a still fragile security environment. In Egypt, where most Sudanese are expected to flee, local services are being overrun and some migrants have been detained on accusations of being Islamists. Elsewhere, fighting in the western Darfur region could reignite tensions with local militia groups. The conflict’s spillover might ensnare Chad and the broader Sahel, where militants have been alarmingly resurgent. That could be an invitation for greater action by Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group, which reportedly has a broad footprint across the region. Meanwhile, the Sahel is in the midst of its own deteriorating humanitarian crisis, as conflict, climate change, and economic shocks push tens of thousands into catastrophic levels of hunger just short of famine. More than 2.9 million people were displaced in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger last year, and escalating crisis will only exacerbate matters. In all, the trends suggest that several grave situations are about to get worse. Forced migration, spreading conflict, and related economic crises could have a devastating impact on a region that has borne more than its share of tragedy. The recent round of fighting in Sudan may be only one month old, but it is a part of a long history of misery. Best regards, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
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