[The new decennial Religion Census offers cause for hope — and
alarm — for both parties.]
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THE RELIGIOUS LANDSCAPE IS UNDERGOING MASSIVE CHANGE. IT COULD DECIDE
THE 2024 ELECTION.  
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Ryan Burge
May 14, 2023
Politico
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_ The new decennial Religion Census offers cause for hope — and
alarm — for both parties. _

In former Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania,
there is good news for the party — each of those states is much less
religious today than it was just 10 years ago., Ethan Doyle White,
Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

 

One of the most significant shifts in American politics and religion
just took place over the past decade and it barely got any notice: the
share of Americans who associate with religion dropped by 11 points.

It’s a development of tremendous impact, one that will ripple across
the political landscape at every level — and especially in
presidential politics. Why? Because of what it means for the God Gap
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the idea that the Republican Party is the one that fights for the
rights of religious individuals (primarily Christians), while
Democrats have become increasingly secular over time.

People are not fleeing organized religion at equal rates across the
United States. Instead, there are regions of the country where
religious adherence is still relatively robust, while other areas have
seen a wholesale abandoning of organized religion. We know this
because of the tireless work of the Association of Statisticians of
American Religious Bodies [[link removed]]. Every 10 years,
they contact as many religious denominations as they can and ask to
see their official membership records. This data provides an
unprecedented look at where religion is growing and declining in the
United States.

The 2020 U.S. Religion Census, which was released late last year,
reveals that religion is taking a beating across the middle part of
the country. When comparing the rate of religious adherents in 2020
versus 2010, a fascinating pattern emerges, illuminating the political
relevance of the shifting religious landscape: Democrats are making
gains in areas where religion is fading (the census defines
non-religious as the percentage of a county’s population that does
not show up on the rolls of any religious organization in that county)
and Republicans are increasing their vote share in places where houses
of worship are gaining new members.

When people think about where religion is declining, it’s likely
they point to regions like the Pacific Northwest or New England. But
the drops in adherents in those parts of the country are fairly modest
compared to other regions of the United States.

Across the industrial Midwest, in former Rust Belt states like
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that are absolutely essential to
the Democrats’ firewall in 2024, there is good news for the party
— each of those states is much less religious today than it was just
10 years ago.

For instance, of Michigan’s 83 counties, 65 experienced a drop in
religious adherents between 2010 and 2020. In populous Oakland County,
which encompasses the far northern suburbs of Detroit, the share of
people affiliated with a religious congregation dropped two percent in
the prior decade. That drop in share coincided with a rise in
Democratic fortunes: President Joe Biden won the county by 108,000
votes, more than double Barack Obama’s margin eight years earlier.
Oakland County points to a future where Democrats have an easier
pathway to victory as churches, synagogues and mosques continue to
empty out.

Another example is suburban Philadelphia’s Bucks County.
Pennsylvania’s fourth most populous county, it’s often seen as a
bellwether
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the national political trends. In 2012, Obama took Bucks County by the
slimmest of margins, just one percentage point. In 2020, Biden won by
5 points. The share of the county aligned with a religious
congregation dropped by nearly 18 percentage points between 2010 and
2020 — easily the largest drop by a populous county in the state.

But that’s not to say that the Republicans don’t have reasons for
hope in the Religion Census.

There are 67 counties in Florida — and religious adherents grew in
forty-nine of them. One of the true shocks on election night 2020 was
just how poorly Biden did in Miami-Dade, which Clinton won in a
landslide in 2016. Just four years after Clinton beat Trump by nearly
30 percentage points, Biden ran only seven points better than Trump.
The Religion Census offers an insight into why that happened. In 2010,
about 40 percent of residents of Miami-Dade County were connected to a
religious group. In 2020, that was 52 percent.

Miami-Dade is something of an outlier. There are 16 counties in the
United States with populations of at least two million residents.
Eleven of them were less religious in 2020 than they were a decade
earlier. Only one saw religion grow by at least 10 percent —
Miami-Dade. The possibility of the Democrats gaining ground in Florida
in the 2024 election seems like a pipe dream when considering how full
houses of worship are around Miami now, compared to just a decade ago.

The other shift in American religion that may be working against the
Democrats is in the state of Texas. While pundits have long believed
that Texas would turn blue in the next decade — the Religion Census
throws cold water on such a conjecture.

In many counties that are close to the border with Mexico, religion
saw big gains between 2010 and 2020. The one that grabbed national
headlines
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2020 was heavily Hispanic Zapata County. Clinton took it by 44 points
in 2016, while Biden only bested Trump by 11 points in 2020. The
Religion Census indicates that the share of Zapata County that was
part of a congregation was 31 percent in 2010. Just 10 years later, it
had risen to 65 percent — the rate of religious adherents doubled in
less than a decade. Other border counties like Maverick and Starr saw
religiosity more than double by 2020, as well. Nearly 90 percent of
residents of Starr County voted for Obama in 2012. Biden only managed
52 percent in 2020.

It goes without saying that the dramatic rise in religion in many
counties in Florida and Texas is deeply intertwined with the
increasing number of Hispanic immigrants in these parts of the
country. The Democrats showed real weakness
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the Hispanic vote in the last several election cycles, especially in
areas where religion has tremendous influence. Survey data indicates
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recent immigrants to the United States report very high levels of
religious attendance and prayer frequency, which predisposes this
group to cultural conservatism.

Messages about the rights of transgender individuals and expanded
abortion access do not resonate with these types of voters. The
passage of a six-week abortion ban
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the “Don’t Say Gay” bill in Florida
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be a strategic move by the GOP to not only make Florida and Texas even
redder states, but it might also make inroads in Arizona — a
state which was crucial
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Biden’s 2020 victory. Religious adherents rose in four of the five
most populous counties in the state, including in Phoenix’s Maricopa
County, which gained over 300,000 new religious adherents between 2010
and 2020.

The overall sense that arises from the Religion Census is that the
Democrats will continue to gain ground in suburban counties that are
predominantly white and where religion is fading in size and
importance. In so-called Blue Wall states like Michigan, Wisconsin,
and Pennsylvania, Republicans will have a harder time winning over
voters in suburban Milwaukee, Detroit, or Philadelphia with messaging
about six-week abortion bans. On the other hand, the shifts in the
religious landscape make it more likely that the GOP can hold off
Democratic advances in important states like Texas and Florida. As
more Hispanic immigrants come to those areas who are deeply religious
and culturally conservative, Democratic messaging on social issues
will not appeal to these types of votes.

It’s hard to overstate this point. In 1990, just seven percent of
Americans were non-religious — 30 years later, the “nones” had
quadrupled. And new data
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that nearly half of Generation Z has no religious affiliation. In
2020, 46 percent of the votes cast for Biden
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non-religious voters. That could easily be half of his base in a bid
for reelection. Both parties have been slow to react to this changing
religious landscape. Where the remaining religious Americans live and
vote is a crucial question for the electoral map in 2024 and beyond.
Both parties are ignoring these changing dynamics at their own peril.

RYAN BURGE is an associate professor of political science at Eastern
Illinois University and the research director for Faith Counts. He is
the author of several books including _The Nones: Where They Came
From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going_. 

_POLITICO strives to be the dominant source for news on politics and
policy in power centers across every continent where access to
reliable information, nonpartisan journalism and real-time tools
create, inform and engage a global citizenry._

* elections
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* Politics
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* religion
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* Hispanics
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* voting
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