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MDAA Alert:
The New Reality
February 6, 2020

President Donald Trump giving the State of the Union Address on February 4, 2020.
(Photo: Donald J. Trump's Instagram)
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Dear Members and Friends,
a
"And just weeks ago, for the first time since President Truman established the Air
Force more than 70 years earlier, we created a brand-new branch of the United States
Armed Forces. It's called the Space Force. - President Donald Trump speaking in
the State of the Union Address on February 4, 2020.
The U.S. Space Force will provide command and control of constellations of satellites
for persistent global surveillance of earth and control of space. All missiles (ballistic,
cruise, and hypersonic) flown through space and the earth's atmosphere will be tracked,
targeted, and processed by artificial intelligence to commanders and their effectors,
as well to our partners and allies.
"Hypersonic weapons - in particular, hypersonic boost-glide vehicles and hypersonic
cruise missiles - are rapidly becoming a reality. China, Russia, the United States
and several other countries are pursuing these weapons. Some may carry nuclear warheads.
China, in particular, has sprinted ahead in the competition to exploit the near-space
domain (20 to 60 kilometers in altitude) with a large number of recent flight tests
and infrastructure improvements to become a world leader in some facets of hypersonic
technology. The principal rationale for developing similar weapons in the United
States is to hold Russian and Chinese mobile targets at risk and to improve the
ability to penetrate advanced integrated air-defense systems. These weapons, especially
when conventionally armed, could have a profound effect on strategic stability.
So far, suggested approaches to avoiding their destabilizing effects do not appear
promising." - Dean Wilkening, a physicist at the John Hopkins University Applied
Physics Laboratory, in the paper 'Hypersonic Weapons and Strategic Stability' [[link removed]]
featured in the journal, 'Survival: Global Politics and Strategy.'
Hypersonic boost-glide vehicles are launched on rockets or even modified ballistic
missiles, while hypersonic cruise missiles are boosted to high speed with rockets
and then have scramjet engines to maintain the high speeds at high altitudes. These
hypersonic missiles may carry nuclear warheads and all can be launched from a variety
of platforms across the domains of land, sea and air. These systems are an extremely
expensive and complex capability that are designed to overmatch defenses, through
their speed and ability to maneuver, and to strike rapidly upon the critical and
most important assets of a nation. They are regional instruments of power projection
and they are strategic instruments of great power projection.
"...even if these vehicles can be tracked, what targets are under attack will remain
uncertain until late in the vehicles' trajectory. This inability to arrive at accurate
attack assessments for non-ballistic hypersonic vehicles - a major difference between
ballistic and non-ballistic hypersonic weapons - makes it much more difficult to
determine the intent of an attack." - Dean Wilkening
Hypersonic missile threats are the new reality. China has conducted over ten tests
of hypersonic missiles (DF-ZF [[link removed]],
DF-17 [[link removed]],
and Starry Sky-2 [[link removed]])
and last year started deploying and even displayed the DF-17 in a military parade
in October. China has copied a canceled U.S. hypersonic program called HyFly [[link removed]].
Russia has conducted just under ten tests of hypersonic missiles (Tsirkon [[link removed]],
Kinzhal [[link removed]],
and Avangard [[link removed]])
and has deployed the Kinzhal and Russia's Defense Minister Shoigu recently announced
the deployment of the Avangard [[link removed]].
The United States has acknowledged the return to great power competition with China
and Russia, and a key component of this competition centers around the new reality
of hypersonic missiles.
Currently deployed missile defenses and countermeasures are challenged to stop hypersonic
cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles. Maneuverable hypersonic missiles
traveling five times the speed of sound, approximately a mile a second, presents
new challenges since the speed shortens the detection and reaction times and the
maneuverability complicates target determination and intercept options. This development
has given China and Russia a dangerous silver bullet in potential flashpoints such
as Eastern Europe and in the Pacific with aircraft carrier groups and Guam.
This requires us to look at hypersonic technology differently than how we have perceived
previous missile technologies. This is a new threat, not a revision of an old one.
We need more testing, more dedicated resources, and an honest look at current doctrine,
in short, we need to fail fast and learn fast to be able to rise to the emerging
threat of hypersonic technology and to defend the homeland and forward deployed
troops from those that wish us harm.
"Currently, the United States relies on stealth, electronic attack, saturation and
low-altitude penetration tactics to defeat such systems. While these means are effective,
their utility may be eroding. Hypersonic weapons, by virtue of their high speed,
high altitude and substantial maneuverability, stress air defenses in fundamentally
different ways and represent an attractive option for penetrating defenses well
into the future. High speeds compress the battlespace for defensive systems and
challenge the performance of interceptors. Their high altitude keeps hypersonic
weapons out of reach from most air-defense systems." - Dean Wilkening
For the U.S. to get ahead of defeating the new hypersonic missile threat, there
are four foundational components the U.S. can do today to enable winning.
The first is dispersed space-based sensor satellite constellation layers that are
small, cheap to put up and replace, and that can provide birth-to-death tracking
of ballistic and hypersonic missile threats. The Space Development Agency (SDA)
is coordinating with the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to develop, launch, test,
and deploy space sensor discrimination capabilities for low-earth-orbit (LEO) and
medium-earth-orbit (MEO).
The second capability is multi-domain command and control (C2) capability that will
provide integration of all the services independent C2 systems - the Joint All-Domain
Command and Control (JADC2) - "The Big C2." This will enable the Command and Control,
Battle Management, and Communications (C2BMC) birth-to-death tracking of hypersonic
and ballistic missiles as they travel over several geographical areas and most importantly
allow targeting options from the best deployed interceptors across the services
enabling their C2 systems.
The third is to rapidly develop, test, and acquire cost efficient effectors to negate
and defeat weapons that fly through space and fly in the upper atmosphere, to include
hypersonic missiles being developed and deployed by Russia and China. MDA is being
tasked for Hypersonic Missile Defense [[link removed]]
focusing on the hypersonic missile's glide phase of flight, while the U.S. Navy
Sea Based Terminal 4 and the U.S Army's Lower Tier Future Missile are focused on
the terminal defense of hypersonic missiles.
Finally, imposing cost, creating stability through changing the calculus of China
and Russia by modifying U.S. deterrence regionally with offense-defense integration
with the deployments of long distance strike missiles, hypersonic glide strike missiles
and with defensive effectors on transporter erector launchers (TELs) that can overwhelm,
overmatch, and under-cost the near peer's defensive and offensive hypersonic missile
capabilities to prevent follow on strikes in an extended crisis or conflict.
The military invincibility of mobility, massing, and Cold War tactics is being challenged.
It is now becoming a great power competition of network vs network and constellation
vs constellation.
A new reality is here.
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Respectfully,
Riki Ellison
Chairman and Founder
Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance
Click Here to Join MDAA [[link removed]]
MDAA is a non-profit, non-partisan tax-exempt 501(c) (4) organization. Our mission
is to make the world safer by advocating for the development and deployment of missile
defense systems to defend the United States and its allies against missile threats.
We are a membership-funded organization that does not advocate on behalf of any
specific system, technology, architecture or entity. Founded in 2002, MDAA is the
only organization in existence whose primary mission is to recruit, organize, and
mobilize proponents to advocate for the critical need of missile defense. Visit
our website www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org [[link removed]]
for more information.
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Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance
515 King Street, Suite 330
Alexandria, VA 22134
Phone: (703) 299-0060
Email: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
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