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Soldiers patrol as tanks are deployed during a shore defense operation as part of a military exercise simulating the defense against the intrusion of Chinese military in Tainan, Taiwan, on November 11, 2021. (Ceng Shou Yi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
If the United States and its allies wish to deter China from invading Taiwan, increasing the island’s regional and international relevance ought to be an urgent priority.
In The Australian, Hudson Senior Fellow John Lee explains how Taiwan can work with the US, as well as Indo-Pacific partners like Australia and Japan, to bolster its economic and military resilience.
Key Insights
1. If China can overrun Taiwan with only minimal resistance, then others will not rally to the island’s defense.
The Biden administration has begun a proper conversation with Taipei about changing Taiwan’s military structure and posture to advance what planners refer to as a strategy of denial; that is, a defensive strategy that makes it prohibitively difficult for China to achieve its objectives through military force. This means quick and relatively cheap ways to impose costs on a possible invading force.
2. Indo-Pacific democracies should support Taiwan’s application to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
The temptation for China to use force is higher if the economic and institutional relevance of Taiwan decreases. There is no way to fully China-proof an economy, but Taiwan is pursuing an economic diversification strategy. Japan has already expressed strong support for Taiwan’s application to the CPTPP. Australia’s formal position is that it will assess applicants on technical grounds, such as whether they meet institutional, environmental, and labor standards. Taiwan would very likely meet these.
3. The human element of deterrence has seen remarkable progress in Taiwan.
A basic first principle is that if you don’t help yourself, then do not expect others to come to your assistance. In a trip to Taipei to meet with their senior political, bureaucratic, and strategic leaders last week, it was clear that they are absorbing this lesson from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In an authoritative poll, more than 70 percent of adults surveyed stated that they were prepared to fight to defend Taiwan. Moreover, China’s coercive military exercises following high-profile events like Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei and President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with Kevin McCarthy are hardening Taiwanese resolve to defend their way of life.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
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The G7 Summit and a New Era of Japanese Leadership Japan’s adoption of a pathbreaking National Security Strategy in December 2022 began a transformative period for Japanese security policy. In this event hosted by Hudson Distinguished Fellow Kenneth R. Weinstein, the Honorable Akira Amari, a member of Japan’s House of Representatives, shared his views on the upcoming G7 summit and Japanese leadership. |
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Asian Allies Can Keep China at Bay if We Work Together “China’s grand plan to transform the Indo-Pacific into a Sino-centric or dominated region is heavily dependent on a submissive and defeatist Southeast Asia,” writes Hudson Senior Fellow John Lee. In The Australian, he explains why initiatives like AUKUS are important to turn the tide against China. |
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China Tries to "Stare Down" Taiwan's Allies Beijing seeks to isolate and weaken Taiwan by scaring off potential allies and partners, explained Hudson Asia-Pacific Security Chair Patrick Cronin on TaiwanPlus. |
