John,

Last week, I told you that we had six weeks until the federal government runs out of money and goes into default.

I was wrong.

The new estimate by the Treasury Department is that we have three weeks - and we still have not reached an agreement.

But:

A new path to resolving this opened up last week, and it’s a bit of a long shot, but it’s possible.

This new path has only worked a few times in the last 50 years. It’s rare and complicated and would involve at least five Republicans voting with all the Democrats.

Which is why it’s a long shot, but to be honest with you, at this point it’s starting to feel like all we have are long shots.

So here it is:

Normally the Speaker has all the power over what comes to a vote and what doesn’t. If the Speaker doesn’t like a bill, it doesn’t move.

But there’s an escape hatch. It’s there so that if a majority of the House wants to vote on a bill but the Speaker doesn’t, the majority can force a vote. It’s called a discharge petition.

So the Democrats have initiated the escape hatch protocol for a bill that would raise the debt ceiling and avoid default.

But the Democrats are in the minority, by five votes. So for this to work, five Republicans would have to sign on.

And you can imagine what life would be like for those five Republicans were they to sign on. That would be a rough week for them inside their party - to put it mildly.

Of course, they would be strongly condemned by the Speaker. But here’s the crazy part of this whole scenario: My sense is that, in private, the Speaker would be incredibly relieved that they went around him.

It gets him off the hook. We don’t default and he gets to remain Speaker because he doesn’t have to do any compromise that would really upset his right flank, and it’s his right flank that holds the key to whether he gets to remain Speaker.

If it happens, I’m sure the Speaker will kick and scream - and then he’ll shut the door and thank his lucky stars.

There are 18 Republicans in the House who were elected in districts that Biden carried - which is to say, they were elected because of a handful of swing voters.

If you’re placing bets on who might support an effort like this, those 18 are probably your pool of candidates.

The bad news is that the only thing that makes this outcome even remotely possible is if we get to the last minute and nothing else has worked.

But the last minute is rapidly approaching. We’re only scheduled to be in session for 12 days between now and when they say we could default.

For those who say you’ve heard all this before - debt ceiling, default, last second deals to avoid disaster - you’re right. You have. And we will probably figure this out.

But given the severity of the consequences, the odds of default should be zero - and they are not. This is going to be a close call.

Here’s the debt situation

So much of the debt standoff right now is people describing various disaster scenarios.

It’d be a big help if we spent more time actually informing you about the underlying situation - that way, you can reach your own conclusions about which approach makes the most sense.

Here are some basic facts about our debt situation that you should know:

1.
There
is
broad
agreement
in
both
parties
that
our
fiscal
path
is
unsustainable.
We
are
taking
on
too
much
debt.
If
left
unchecked,
by
the
end
of
this
decade
we
could
spend
more
on
interest
on
the
debt
than
on
defense.
That’s
bad.
2.
3.
We’re
currently
running
roughly
a
22%
deficit.
So
for
every
dollar
we
spend,
we’re
borrowing
about
22
cents.
For
a
sense
of
scale,
we
could
eliminate
the
entire
military
-
zero
it
out
completely
-
and
it
wouldn’t
balance
the
budget.
It
would
get
us
about
14
cents
closer.
(Spending
on
Ukraine
so
far
=
about
2
cents.)
4.
5.
Realistically,
there
is
no
way
to
reach
fiscal
sustainability
through
cuts
alone.
Let’s
say
we
want
to
at
least
get
somewhat
close
to
balancing
the
budget,
but
we
don’t
want
to
cut
Medicare,
Social
Security,
or
refuse
to
pay
interest
on
current
debt.
That’s
almost
half
the
budget.
So
if
we
have
to
find
22%
savings
and
we’re
starting
out
by
taking
half
the
budget
off
the
table,
then
the
rest
would
have
to
be
cut
by
about
44%
-
including
defense
and
veteran
health
care.
And
if
defense
and
veteran
health
care
were
also
taken
off
the
table,
that
means
you’d
have
to
almost
zero
out
the
entire
rest
of
the
budget:
energy,
transportation,
Medicaid
(which
includes
40
million
kids),
education,
environment,
NASA,
air
traffic
control,
border
control…
Poof.
Gone.
And
that
isn’t
going
to
happen.
So
the
way
you’ll
know
that
there’s
a
serious,
realistic
conversation
about
the
budget
is
that
it
will
include
a
discussion
about
reduced
spending
and
a
discussion
about
revenue
from
our
highest
earners
and
largest
corporations.
There’s
just
no
way
to
make
the
math
work
without
including
both.
6.
7.
Racking
up
debt
is
definitely
bipartisan.
Here’s
the
simple
way
to
think
of
where
most
of
it
came
from:
two
unfunded
wars,
two
unfunded
tax
cuts,
and
two
global
recessions.
And
25%
of
all
total
debt
was
accumulated
under
the
previous
president,
for
whom
the
debt
ceiling
was
lifted
three
times.
8.
9.
There
is
also
broad
consensus
that,
if
we
default,
it
takes
every
single
problem
our
country
has
and
makes
it
worse
-
starting
with
the
debt,
which
would
spike
as
we
increased
spending
to
offset
the
major
recession
caused
by
default.

Those are some basic points we should all know just to ground this conversation in set of common facts, which is always a good place to start when solving a complex problem.

Best,
Rep. Jeff Jackson (NC-14)

P.S. - Thanks to all our new subscribers! And a special thanks to everyone who has been forwarding these updates to friends and family. Very kind of you.
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United States
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