After years of fast-track expulsions that have prevented many from seeking protection in the United States, an estimated 152,000 migrants have amassed in northern Mexico days ahead of the long-anticipated end of the Title 42 public health order. Hundreds of thousands more are making their way through southern Mexico and Central America, Nouran Salahieh and Rosa Flores report for CNN. 

In El Paso, Texas, migrants who have already crossed the U.S.’s southern border — many of whom have been sleeping on the city’s streets — will be apprehended in an enforcement operation launching today, Camilo Montoya-Galvez writes for CBS News. They will either be expelled, released with a court notice, or sent to a detention facility.  

Border states are gearing up in different ways, as Stacey Barchenger of the Arizona Republic and Renzo Downey of the Texas Tribune separately report. 

History suggests that deterrence is not the most effective way to prevent irregular migration. In Forbes, Stuart Anderson makes the case that "prevention through deterrence" is generally played out, and a better strategy would be to create more legal immigration pathways as an alternative to dangerous border crossings.  

"[T]he history of the past 100 years provides two lessons," Anderson writes. "The first lesson is that increased enforcement is unlikely to be effective in reducing illegal entry, but opening pathways to enter and work legally, along with economic and demographic changes, are likely to succeed. The second lesson is we should anticipate that many members of Congress will ignore the first lesson and continue to see increased enforcement as the way to reduce illegal immigration." 

Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of The Forum Daily. I’m Dan Gordon, the Forum’s strategic communications VP, and the great Forum Daily team also includes Alexandra Villarreal, Clara Villatoro, Sam Benson, Keylla Ortega and Becka Wall. If you have a story to share from your own community, please send it to me at [email protected]. 

SMUGGLERS CAPITALIZE — Smugglers are using misinformation about Title 42 to persuade migrants to cross the southern border illegally, reports Nick Mordowanec of Newsweek, subjecting them to inordinate costs and danger. Corrie Boudreaux of El Paso Matters reports that cartels are preying upon migrants waiting at the border for legal avenues. A migrant from Colombia shared, "[We are] between the border on one side, where they will not let us through, and the cartel on the other, where we are risking our lives." 

HOUSE BILL — The House is set to vote on a border security package Thursday as Title 42 is scheduled to end, reports Stef W. Kight of Axios. The bill would codify a number of Trump-era policies and has received stiff backlash. Bishop Mark J. Seitz, chairman of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops’ Committee on Migration and a Forum board member, called its potential passage "beyond justification." Some Republicans still have reservations, Jordain Carney and Daniella Diaz report for Politico. Read our bill summary here.  

BROWNSVILLE UPDATE — The driver in Sunday’s deadly incident outside of a migrant shelter in Brownsville, Texas, has been charged with eight counts of manslaughter, report Emily Wax-Thibodeaux and Paulina Villegas of The Washington Post. Police Chief Felix Sauceda said authorities have not ruled out an intentional act. 

POSITIVE TREND — The U.S. resettled 6,394 refugees in April, a small increase marking the second month in a row in which numbers topped 6,000, per the official report. If the trend holds, resettlement this fiscal year could top 50,000 — a vast improvement but still well short of the 125,000 "ceiling." Something to watch: whether ramped-up asylum processing at the border slows resettlement of refugees (who seek protection from outside the U.S.). 

Thanks for reading, 

Dan