Turkey last week announced that it intends to suspend its migrant readmission agreement with the European Union. The readmission agreement has been in place since March 2016, as part of a broader deal Turkey and the bloc signed to stem the flow of migrants and refugees from Syria and elsewhere from entering the European Union, in exchange for visa-free travel for Turkish citizens and other concessions. More than three years on, visa-free travel has failed to materialize, so Turkey “will not wait at the EU’s door,” according to the country’s foreign minister. Amid the announcement, reports of clashes and deportations have circulated, suggesting that long-simmering tensions between Turks and Syrians have begun to boil over.

More than 3.6 million Syrian refugees live in Turkey, 64 percent of all Syrians who have sought refuge abroad. Since the beginning of the civil war, Syrians have flocked to neighboring Turkey, which has maintained an “open-door policy” and granted registered Syrians temporary protection, including access to work permits. Most have settled in towns and urban centers, living alongside the native population.

As the Syrian conflict drags on, however, tensions between the two groups have grown. Many Turks who originally welcomed the refugees as temporary guests are now demanding their return to Syria. Indeed, according to a July poll, more than 80 percent of Turks surveyed stated that hosting Syrians was not their government’s responsibility and that all Syrians should be sent back. In the same poll, Turks ranked the presence of Syrian refugees as a key problem in the country, second only to the economy.

Reports of deportations surfaced in mid-July, with estimates ranging from hundreds to 1,000 Syrians removed. Turkish officials maintain that arrests and removals were part of a crackdown on unregistered Syrians, while human-rights advocates and international observers argue the deportations represent a violation of Turkish and international law. Perhaps most concerning, many have reportedly been deported to Idlib province, notorious for its instability and violence. Finally, on July 22, the governor of Istanbul announced that Syrians living in the city but registered elsewhere in Turkey must return to those jurisdictions by August 20 or be forcibly removed.

These new moves to expel Syrians will likely exacerbate already strained relations with the European Union. The bloc imposed sanctions on Turkey in mid-July over its natural gas drilling operations off the coast of Cyprus. As part of the sanctions, the European Union has said it will reduce the amount of pre-accession funding Turkey will receive as part of its bid to join the Union. Against the backdrop of these domestic and regional tensions, Syrian refugees have much to lose. Escalating crackdown will prompt many Syrians to weigh the odds: Should they risk the dangerous journey to Europe, where they may be turned away, or stay in Turkey, where they could face forced removal?

Best regards,

Alexandra Vranas-Carita

Editor, Migration Information Source