Conservative claim that ‘overall crime’ has fallen 50% since 2010 excludes fraud

5 May 2023 | Full Fact's weekly news
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FACT CHECK
Rishi Sunak’s claims about falls in crime fail to account for fraud
In recent weeks the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has repeatedly claimed, both in and out of Parliament, that “crime” or “overall crime” has fallen by around 50% since the Conservative Party took office in 2010. The policing minister Chris Philp also made a similar claim about “overall crime” on Sky News.

But these claims are based on specific figures from the crime survey for England and Wales which don't count fraud or computer misuse offences, so don't represent all crime. We don’t have comparable data going back to 2010 for all crimes (including fraud and computer misuse) because the way data is collected changed in 2015.

A Home Office spokesperson also told Full Fact that, because fraud and computer misuse only began to be included in the crime survey in 2015, it is necessary to exclude those offences when making longer-term comparisons,

But what the crime survey data does show us is that fraud and computer misuse accounted for around 4.4 million of 9 million total offences in 2022, while other sources suggest there’s been a rise in fraud in recent years.

And while ministers have previously quoted the crime figures with appropriate context, making it evident that the 50% statistic excludes fraud, this has not always been the case—as the examples above show.

Selective or misleading use of official information without appropriate context and caveats can damage public trust in both official information and politicians. It’s important that Ministers use official information transparently and with all relevant context and caveats when a claim is first made, and quickly rectify oversights when they occur. We’ve contacted Downing Street about Mr Sunak’s comments and to ask that in future he caveats this claim appropriately.

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FACT CHECK


** Keir Starmer’s claim about first-time buyers’ deposits based on estimate of future increases ([link removed])
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At Prime Minister’s Questions this week, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said that the average deposit for a first-time buyer “is going up to £9,000”, and that saving this amount would take four years for the average saver. This isn’t correct, and Labour has since clarified to Full Fact that Mr Starmer was referring to deposits increasing by £9,000 instead.

And Mr Starmer did indeed imply this later in PMQs, when he referred to first-time buyers needing “an extra” £9,000 for a deposit.

But Mr Starmer did not make it clear in his comments that he was referring to what appears to be a hypothetical estimate for what a typical deposit for a first-time buyer might be by 2030, not an illustration of the current situation for first-time buyers.

It is important that MPs are transparent and not selective in their use of data, as a lack of transparency and accuracy can damage trust in politicians.

We’ve also asked Labour to confirm the source for its claim that it would take the average saver four years to save £9,000.

Where did this estimate come from? ([link removed])
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** Full Fact is recruiting a new chief executive ([link removed])
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Will Moy, who has led our team of fact checkers and campaigners since 2010, will stand down later this year.

Full Fact’s cross-party board of trustees will oversee recruitment and the appointment of our next CEO.

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FACT CHECK


** Comparison of junior doctors’ pay with baked beans prices lacks context ([link removed])
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A widely shared Facebook post and tweet uses the price of Heinz Beanz to claim that junior doctors are paid £14 an hour. The post uses the price of Heinz Beanz to quantify the change in junior doctors’ pay since 2008.

The post’s caption says: “Junior doctor—pay explained. 2008—24 Tins of beans an hour. 2023—10 Tins of beans an hour.”

It is true that the basic pay of the most junior 11% of junior doctors is currently £14.09 an hour, which is roughly equivalent to the cost of 10 tins of Heinz Beanz.

But most junior doctors are paid significantly more, even if you only consider basic pay. Many, including some of the most junior doctors, also earn extra money on top of their basic hourly rate.

The Labour MP Barry Sheerman shared the post in question on Twitter, but added a clarification following contact from Full Fact.

How has junior doctors’ pay changed since 2008? ([link removed])
MORE FACT CHECKS
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