Daily News Brief
February 05, 2020
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Top of the Agenda
U.S. Defense Analysts Warn of Islamic State Resilience
The self-proclaimed Islamic State, also known as ISIS, likely increased its attacks in northeastern Syria by at least 20 percent after an October U.S. troop drawdown and subsequent Turkish incursion, according to U.S. government estimates cited in a new Defense Department Inspector General report. The report said the group’s command structure remains intact despite the killing of leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October.
 
Supporters of the Islamic State have rallied around Baghdadi’s replacement, a senior U.S. counterterrorism official told Voice of America. A U.S. special envoy to the coalition to defeat the group said last week (State Department) that “we are seeing ISIS come back as an insurgency, as a terrorist operation.” Still, U.S. President Donald J. Trump praised (WaPo) Baghdadi’s killing and celebrated the destruction of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate in his State of the Union address.
Analysis
“ISIS has more room to maneuver amid the upheaval. And the question of how to deal with the group’s followers and families remains urgent and unresolved,” CFR’s Gayle Tzemach Lemmon writes for Foreign Affairs.
 
“[Trump’s] priorities have shifted from the defeat of ISIS to the pressure campaign against Iran,” Kathy Gilsinan writes for the Atlantic.
 
In Foreign Affairs, Asaad Almohammad discusses the challenges facing the Islamic State’s new leader.

United States
Trump Delivers State of the Union Address
President Trump touted the U.S. economy, trade deals, and the strengthening of the military in his 2020 State of the Union address (NYT) last night. He did not mention his impeachment, though the Senate is set to vote on his acquittal today.
 
This CFR Timeline looks at Trump’s most significant foreign policy decisions.

Pacific Rim
Myanmar Shuts Down Internet in War-Torn West
Myanmar reimposed an internet shutdown (Reuters) in five townships in the western states of Chin and Rakhine, where fighting with ethnic insurgents has displaced tens of thousands. The region was the site of the 2017 violent military crackdown on Rohingya Muslims, which forced more than 730,000 Rohingya to flee. 
 
China: Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei plans to set up manufacturing bases in Europe (SCMP) to create 5G network components, the company’s top executive for Europe said. The European Union recently warned against 5G operators that could pose security risks, but avoided a total ban on Huawei.
 
In Foreign Affairs, Anu Bradford discusses the EU’s lasting power over global markets.

South and Central Asia
Afghan Media Protest Lack of Access to Information
Thirty Afghan media outlets joined international groups including Reporters Without Borders and the European Union to demand better access to government-related information (TOLO).
 
Sri Lanka: Independence Day celebrations excluded (AP) a version of the national anthem sung in Tamil, Sri Lanka’s second national language. New President Gotabaya Rajapaksa commanded government forces that defeated Tamil rebels during the country’s decades-long civil war.

Middle East and North Africa
Libya’s Warring Factions Meet in Geneva
The two sides in the country’s civil war showed a “genuine will” to begin negotiating toward a cease-fire at talks in Geneva (Al Jazeera), UN envoy Ghassan Salame said. Salame said evidence of both sides’ ongoing violations of an arms embargo had been referred to the UN Security Council.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigeria Working Against U.S. Travel Ban
Nigeria is working to lift a new U.S. ban (Reuters) on visas that could lead to permanent residency for Nigerian nationals, Foreign Affairs Minister Geoffrey Onyeama said.
 
For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s John Campbell looks at the new U.S. restrictions on immigration from Nigeria.
 
South Sudan: The armed forces of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition rebel group released seventy-eight women and fifty children it abducted in 2018, the UN announced.

Europe
UK Moves Diesel and Petrol Car Ban Up to 2035
The United Kingdom will ban the sale (BBC) of new diesel, petrol, and hybrid cars beginning in 2035, five years sooner than previously planned, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.
 
Greece: The government dispatched riot police to the island of Lesbos to contain protests (Guardian) by thousands of migrants, most from Afghanistan, denouncing conditions in the island’s overcrowded refugee camp.

Americas
Mexican Migrant Remittances Hit Record in 2019
Mexicans working abroad sent $36 billion (AP) worth of remittances back to Mexico in 2019, the highest amount on record, the country’s central bank announced. 
 
Bolivia: Exiled former President Evo Morales will run for Senate (NYT) in Bolivia’s May 3 election, despite a warrant for his arrest issued by the country’s interim government.
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