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Welcome to the Wednesday, February 5, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Buttigieg leads in delegates, Sanders leads raw vote in Iowa caucuses based on 62% of precincts
- Florida voters to decide four citizen-initiated constitutional amendments in November
- Filing deadline roundup
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Buttigieg leads in delegates, Sanders leads raw vote in Iowa caucuses based on 62% of precincts
The Iowa Democratic Party released partial results at 4 p.m. CT yesterday from Monday’s caucuses that showed Pete Buttigieg in first place with 26.9% of state delegate equivalents. Bernie Sanders was second at 25.1%, Elizabeth Warren was third with 18.3%, and Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar were fourth and fifth, respectively. These results are from 62% of the state’s 1,765 precincts.
The number of state delegate equivalents reflect the final votes received by candidates who had more than 15% support in each precinct after caucusgoers realigned their votes after the initial count. Sanders led Buttigieg in the final raw vote taken after that realignment and in the initial raw vote of caucusgoers.
Iowa Democratic Party Chair Troy Price said in a press conference that the delayed release of the caucus results was due to a reporting issue and the underlying data from the precinct locations was accurate. He did not provide a timetable as to when further results would be released.
Our writers have started tracking key events in the process and responses to the delayed release of Iowa caucus results. Follow this page for updates.
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Florida voters to decide four citizen-initiated constitutional amendments in November
Filing or certification deadlines for statewide ballot measures passed earlier this month in Maine and Florida. Here’s a recap of the ballot initiatives voters in those states may decide in 2020.
Florida voters will decide four citizen-initiated constitutional amendments in 2020. If approved, these measures would:
- specify that only U.S. citizens can vote in federal, state, local, or school elections
- increase the minimum wage to $15 by 2026
- establish a top-two open primary system for state office primary elections
- require voter-approved constitutional amendments to be approved by voters at a second general election
Each measure requires a 60% supermajority to be approved.
Three of the listed initiatives qualified in 2019. The Secretary of State’s office certified the fourth measure—which would require voter-approved constitutional amendments to be approved by voters a second time—on Jan. 31.
Supporters of citizen-initiated constitutional amendments had to collect 766,200 signatures—8 percent of the votes cast in the preceding presidential election. Florida also has a distribution requirement for citizen initiatives. This requires that supporters collect signatures equaling at least 8% of the district-wide vote in the last presidential election in 14 of the state's 27 congressional districts. The Florida Legislature may still refer measures to the ballot during the 2020 legislative session.
Twenty-seven initiatives were filed in Florida attempting to make the ballot in 2020 and four of them—15%—qualified. From 2010 through 2018, an average of 29 measures were filed each cycle. During this time, an average of two initiatives qualified for the ballot each cycle.
Voters in Maine could decide a ballot initiative to revoke the certification of the New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) transmission corridor, which was designed to cross about 145 miles in Maine and transmit around 1,200 megawatts from hydroelectric plants in Quebec to Massachusetts.
Supporters of the initiative filed 75,253 signatures Feb. 3 with the Secretary of State’s office. A total of 63,067 signatures—10 percent of the votes cast for governor in 2018—must be valid for further action on the measure to take place. If enough signatures are valid, the proposal would first go to the state legislature. If the legislature approves the initiative, it becomes law. If the legislature does not act on the initiative or rejects it, the measure will go before voters on Nov. 3. Supporters of three other potential initiatives did not file signatures by the deadline.
Maine voters will decide a veto referendum on March 3 that would repeal Legislative Document 798 (LD 798). LD 798 would eliminate religious and philosophical exemptions from vaccination requirements for students to attend schools and colleges and for employees of healthcare facilities. Under LD 798, the elimination of religious and philosophical exemptions would go into effect on Sept. 1, 2021. Supporters of the veto referendum submitted enough signatures to place this measure on the ballot in September 2019.
Since 1995, Maine voters have approved 18 of 40—45%—of citizen-initiated statutes.
In the 26 states with a process for statewide citizen-initiated measures, the average success rate for petition efforts in even-years from 2010 through 2018 is about 8%. (An average of 756 measures were filed targeting the ballot each year, and an average of 59 qualified for the ballot.) So far in 2020, 685 statewide citizen-initiated measures have been filed attempting to make the ballot.
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Filing deadline roundup
The first candidate filing deadline in February, and the 12th nationwide, is on Friday, Feb. 7, in Indiana. The only other filing deadline this month is in Pennsylvania on Feb. 18. Sixteen states have candidate filing deadlines in March.
The offices up for election in Indiana include the governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, all nine U.S. House districts, 25 of 50 state Senate seats, all 100 state House districts, and local and judicial offices. Indiana's Democratic and Republican primaries take place May 5. Additionally, one justice on the Indiana Supreme Court and six justices on the Indiana Court of Appeals face retention elections on Nov. 3.
Democratic and Republican candidates must file a declaration of candidacy and nomination petition with the Indiana Election Division. Libertarian Party candidates must file with their party and be nominated at the party's state convention, which starts on March 6. Minor party or independent candidates need to collect signatures from registered voters equal to 2% of the total votes cast for secretary of state in the last election by June 30.
Additionally, all candidates running for state executive or legislative office must file a statement of economic interests with the Indiana Ethics Commission. Click the link below to see a full list of 2020 candidate filing deadlines and primary elections.
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The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
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