It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. 

What we know about Iowa
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent

All three are factors in Iowa, where Democrats in the past day have stumbled through one of the most historic data misfires in modern politics. (Not outranking, but seemingly on the same spectrum as “hanging chads” in 2000.)  Check here for the latest results from Iowa.  But as we continue to await final numbers, we thought it might be useful to consider what we know about the vote in Iowa.

Entrance polling* gives a rough sense of the core constituencies for each candidate. 

From our look at the crosstabs, here’s what that data indicates in Iowa:

• Pete Buttigieg - initial results indicated the former South Bend, Indiana mayor reaped great benefits from Iowa’s preference system. He was not necessarily the first choice for the largest number of caucusgoers, but he gained from his status as the second choice by those whose top candidate did not get enough support to be viable and move forward in the individual caucuses.  Who supported him the most? Buttigieg won with white college-educated voters, placed a close second with moderates (Biden won), higher income voters (Warren won) and tied for second with rural/small town voters (Biden won). 

• Bernie Sanders - Sanders’ coalition feels strongly. The Vermont Senator won with several categories of voters by massive margins.  This includes voters aged 18-29 (won by 30 percentage points), non-white voters (won by 12 points), gay voters and with those identifying as “very liberal”, and with urban voters.

• Elizabeth Warren - The senator from Massachusetts won with a large, key group: women. She outpaced Sanders with women, by a significant four points. She also was the top choice for college graduates, high income ($100,000+) voters, suburban voters and those who said that climate change is their top issue.

• Joe Biden - for moderates in Iowa, Biden was the top first-choice candidate. He outpaced Buttigieg and Klobuchar by three points within the group.  Biden also won with some other voters considered “swing” in a general election: voters who did not go to college and voters in the income bracket $25,000 - $50,000 a year. 

• Amy Klobuchar - Similar to Buttigieg, Klobuchar was consistent across many age, gender and issues groups. She was often second or third for many groups. (She was second with moderates). Where did she win? With white women over 45 years old and college graduates over 65 years old. 

• Andrew Yang - Following the top five, the entrepreneur did make a mark with a few groups of voters. He won a key issue group: voters who care the most about the economy. And he placed second, after Sanders, with young voters and non-white voters. 

• Tom Steyer - the businessman and activist was not in the top three spots in many categories, but the poll numbers show who gravitates toward him the most: suburban men,those who walked into the caucus undecided and with two groups on opposite ends of the educational spectrum: men with post-graduate degrees and women with no high school education. 

• The numbers for Tulsi Gabbard, Mike Bloomberg, Deval Patrick and other candidates are statistically too low to clear the margin of error. With one exception: Gabbard had a minor bright spot with voters who care the most about foreign policy. Five percent of them favored her.

*Caucus polling is done as voters enter.  Polling at primary and general elections is done when voters exit.

Sound smart about the State of the Union

Editor’s note: We have an impeachment and some wild, data-splattered Iowa Caucuses dominating headlines. But, it is also time for the president’s annual address to the American people. Here are a few links to some of our favorite past PBS nuggets about the State of the Union address.

The word nearly every president uses to describe the state of the union, by Lisa Desjardins.

State of the Union trivia, by Rachel Welford.


FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK

By  Alex D’Elia, @AlexDEliaNews
Politics production assistant

1. Coronavirus May Delay Hard-Fought U.S. Trade Wins in China -- Feb. 3. The illness may make it harder for China to live up to its end of an initial trade deal with the United States.  Why it matters: The trade relationship between China and the U.S. remains fragile and unpredictable. It is also one of the world’s most significant; any trouble spots have the ability to shift world markets. -- The New York Times

2. Trump exits impeachment apparently unscathed as his poll numbers reach highs -- Feb. 4.  A newly-released poll by Gallup shows that some 49 percent of respondents approve of the job President Trump is doing, an all-time high during his tenure.  Why it matters: President Trump’s approval ratings have not always aligned with his power at the polls, but in an election year, they are an important temperature gauge to both Republicans and Democrats. -- The Washington Post

3. AOC, Ayanna Pressley to skip Trump’s SOTU address -- Feb. 4. Calling the speech a “sham” and not “normal”, two Democratic congresswomen known for their participation in the so-called “squad,” announced they will not attend the State of the Union. Why it matters: Reps. Ocasio-Cortez and Pressley are among the most visible and vocal opponents of the president, their sentiments are often echoed by progressives on the left flank and mocked by President Trump himself. -- POLITICO

4. Supreme Court won't produce a majority for Trump's State of the Union address -- Feb. 4. Chief Justice Roberts -- who has been presiding over the Senate impeachment trial for the past two weeks on the other side of the Capitol -- will be in attendance alongside Trump-appointed Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, and Obama-appointed Justice Kagan. Why it matters: Though it is not out of the ordinary, for the third year in a row, the majority of the Supreme Court justices will not be in attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address. -- USA Today

5. California Early Voters Draw Campaigns’ Attention -- Feb. 4. As Iowa continues counting votes, Californians are mailing theirs in, with the Golden State launching early voting yesterday.  Why it matters: California Democrats will determine which candidate gets the nation’s largest purse of delegates, some 495. That compares with 41 from Iowa.  -- The Wall Street Journal

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kate Grumke, @KGrumke
Politics producer

With the delay in this year’s Iowa caucuses results, we remember in 2012, when candidate for the Republican nomination Rick Santorum was announced victorious in Iowa after much delay. Our question: How many days after the 2012 caucuses did the Iowa GOP announce that Rick Santorum had actually finished first by 34 votes?

Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: In today’s impeachment proceedings, Pat Cipollone played videos of some Democrats who argued against the impeachment of President Clinton in the 90’s. 

Our question: Which of the Democrats’ house managers were in congress during the Clinton impeachment?

ANSWER: Jerry Nadler and Zoe Lofgren

Congratulations to our winners: Brenda Radford and Barry Weinstein!!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your Inbox next week.