May 2, 2023
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Did Anyone on Biden’s Team Actually Look at Public Opinion Polls when They Dropped his Reelection video?
By Manzanita Miller
President Biden officially announced his candidacy for a second term on Tuesday, to mild enthusiasm and significant criticism from the public.
In terms of his overarching theme, rather than focusing on addressing economic issues or highlighting ways to extract the United States from involvement in Ukraine like many Americans want, he focused on anti-Trump sentiment and abortion.
In a 3-minute video announcing his run, Biden’s team used images from the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol and included footage of protests after the Supreme Court decision to return abortion decisions to the states. In the video, he stated that the question facing the nation is, “whether in the years ahead we have more freedom or less freedom.” An odd statement coming from one of the most-anti-freedom and anti-free speech presidents in recent history.
In voiceover against images of Trump supporters and footage of scarcely-seen Vice President Kamala Harris ambling around the White House with him, Biden warned “you know, around the country MAGA extremists are lining up to take those bedrock freedoms back.”
It appears that the Biden camp has arrived at a consensus as to the central themes for his reelection campaign: defending democracy from “MAGA extremists” and abortion. One can only conclude the Biden campaign staff simply refused to read literally any modern public opinion poll, because if they had they would have chosen to focus on an economic recovery plan instead of a political protest two years ago.
Polling consistently shows the top issues on voters’ minds for the last year have been jobs and the economy, inflation, and healthcare. Nowhere even on the map are the January 6th protest or federally guaranteed abortion. In fact, the most recent YouGov poll shows abortion and civil rights are the top issues to just five percent of Americans.
Missing entirely from the video was any semblance of an economic recovery plan, but instead claims that “MAGA extremists” intend to cut social security and “cut taxes for the wealthy”. These yawn-worthy talking points may as well have been unearthed from a time capsule of the Democratic playbook in 2012.
On Biden’s official YouTube channel, the comments beneath his reelection video were less than enthusiastic. One user noted that the 3-minute clip was “the most times” he’d seen Kamala Harris ever, while another commentator remarked dryly that it was, “nice that he was able to have every single person that ever showed up at one of his rallies all fit into a 3-minute video”.
Another commentator stated, “Biden’s voice has to be AI generated, I never heard him talk this clearly”, while another said, “I’m not sure what job you want to finish but what ever it is PLEASE DON'T, you've done quite enough already.” There did not appear to be many supporters, at least in the comments. In fact, one user remarked, “I can't believe they allowed comments”, followed by a laugh-crying emoji.
Biden’s announcement that he will seek reelection comes at a time when many in his own party, as well as an increasing share of swing voters, want a new candidate.
His approval rating now hovers in the low 40’s – a place occupied by former presidents who have lost their reelection bids. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s average approval rating is at 43%, while his disapproval rating has climbed to 52%.
As we pointed out last week, nearly two-thirds of Americans (62%) would be ‘dissatisfied’ or ‘angry’ if Biden were to run again, while just 7% said they’d be excited according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Even among his own party, less than a third of Democrats and leaners (31%) think Biden should be nominated for the party pick in 2024, while 58% say he shouldn’t.
While apathy and dissatisfaction with Biden as a candidate is nothing new, it appears his handlers have learned very little over the past two years about where the public’s attention is focused. Americans consistently give the Biden Administration rock-bottom approval ratings on issues such as the state of the economy, inflation, home prices, and U.S. ensnarement in foreign conflicts, issues the Biden camp has thus far conveniently neglected to address in his reelection campaign.
Despite being 80 years old, Biden is expected to receive the Democratic nomination without serious challenge, as rank-and-file Democratic voters have already begun to rally around him. While his age has given Democrats pause, his experience as the former vice president and longtime Delaware senator is seen as an asset to his campaign.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2023/05/did-anyone-on-bidens-team-actually-look-at-public-opinion-polls-when-they-dropped-his-reelection-video/
Cartoon: Footloose
By A.F. Branco
Click here for a higher level resolution version.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2023/05/cartoon-footloose/
Video: Tucker Carlson’s Time for Choosing Channels Reagan
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEbBb3vokkY
Video: Kevin McCarthy to Joe Biden: ‘Do your job!’
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqOh2Vp4rY4
Poll: Kennedy up to 21 percent against Biden, Trump opens up 46-point lead in GOP contest, as one-third of independents undecided in general election
By Robert Romano
Robert Kennedy, Jr. continues to pick up steam in the Democratic presidential primary, rising to 21 percent compared to incumbent President Joe Biden’s 70 percent, according to the latest poll by Emerson taken April 24 to April 25. Marianne Williamson scored 8 percent.
Kennedy’s showing including 17.1 percent of Democrats and a whopping of 33.7 percent of independents who participated in the poll — a number of states including New Hampshire and South Carolina have open primaries where independents can vote — that has the potential to expose weaknesses in Biden’s recently announced 2024 reelection bid.
Usually, incumbent presidents run relatively unopposed in their party’s primary, and the ones who have competitive primaries could end up faring poorly in the general election. There are still several months to go before the first primaries in early 2024 and not a single vote has been cast, the few polls that have been taken show with Biden pitted against actual declared candidates show a consistent protest vote.
In the meantime, in the Republican primary, former President Donald Trump has opened up a 46-point lead among his closest GOP rivals, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has yet to announce a presidential bid, 62 percent to 16 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence gets 7 percent.
For challengers, a strong showing among a competitive field can portend well for the general election, as it shows the opposition party is united, which could make Republicans’ bid to pick up independent and lower propensity voters easier in the general election.
On that count, in a general election contest between Biden and Trump, independents are wide open in the Emerson poll: 33 percent of independent prefer Biden, 33 percent prefer Trump and 33 percent are undecided or would rather have someone else.
As a result, Biden only garners 43 percent in the poll versus Trump, who garners 41 percent.
That makes 2024 almost a coin flip at this point, and it’s still a year out from the primaries, and appears to show exceptional weakness on the part of the incumbent. Reelections are usually something of a breeze for incumbent presidents — they win about 70 percent of the time — and barring a weak economy or some other event, such as an unpopular war, are a referendum usually on the performance of the current officeholder.
And right now Biden is showing exceptional weakness, particularly among independents who are the kingmakers in our elections. The fact they aren’t immediately choosing Biden could be very problematic.
For Republicans, including Trump, who appears to have little trouble getting Republicans to vote for him, an opportunity is therefore being presented to build support by making key inroads to independents, yes, but also liberal Democrats who appear to prefer Kennedy and Williamson in the current primary.
How would they make things better looking forward? That is the question.
Right now, the issue taking hold appears to be the economy, with a string of regional bank failures, a slowing Gross Domestic Product, and although inflation has slowed down a tad, that usually means unemployment could be about to rise, with the Federal Reserve and the White House Office of Management and Budget projecting about 4.6 percent unemployment in 2024, an implied 2 million jobs that could be lost by the time Biden is standing for general election.
Meaning, 2024 could be shaping up to be a very interesting contest as a potential rematch between two presidents and independents open to persuasion. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.